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Is Brady a better bet than the Broncos?
Peyton Manning and company have won 11 consecutive games.  They've got home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and the best odds (11/4) of any NFL team to win the Super Bowl.  But should they really be considered the team most likely to win it all?

It's possible their winning streak  has a lot to do with their schedule.  They played their three toughest games of the season (at Atlanta, home vs. Houston, and at New England) all within the first 5 weeks, and they lost every time.  If Denver had matched up against any of these squads recently, we might have a much different outlook on the Broncos.  To me it seems very difficult to buy into a team being the favorite if they went 0-3 against their stiffest competition, regardless of when the games happened.

Meanwhile the Patriots (7/2 to win the title) went 2-1 against the 3 best teams they played, beating Denver and Houston, and losing to San Francisco.  Imagine if the Pats had finished off their miraculous comeback against the 49ers?  They'd be the #1 seed, have a 10 game winning streak of their own, and be the heavy favorites.  Or if a single play had gone differently in any one of their 3 early season losses (by a total of 4 points), New England would also be the top seed with the best odds.

Follow Mark on twitter @LucidSportsFan

Mark Vandeusen is a guest writer for Patriots Life and a regular contributing writer to CelticsLife.com.

Mark Vandeusen 1/11/2013 12:15:00 AM Edit
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