Week Two Scouting Report: New York Jets
After a tough win in the season opener, a banged-up Patriots team will have to deal with a quick turnaround to face their hated divisional rivals from New York on Thursday. Here's a breakdown of some of the matchups that could determine the game.
When New England has the ball:
My fellow Pats fans, it pains me to say this but things could get really ugly at times. With Shane Vereen out, Danny Amendola doubtful and questions remaining about the availability of Zach Sudfeld, Brandon Bolden and Leon Washington, the Pats are frighteningly low on playmakers. Perhaps with a normal full week they might have a chance of getting some of those guys back, but the quick turnaround to Thursday puts the team in a real pickle.
Julian Edelmen will likely be the number one receiver against the Jets, with Kenbrell Thompkins being the only other receiving option who played extensively in Week One available. The absence of Amendola will likely push Josh Boyce into the important third receiver role. Things would look much better at receiver if the Thompkins who impressed throughout the preseason shows up, but "KT" looked like a lost and confused rookie out there Sunday. Hopefully some of the glaring mistakes from the Bills game can quickly be corrected through film study.
Rookie Aaron Dobson has told reporters he expects to play Thursday. Dobson struggled a bit in the preseason after starting strong in camp, but he is a big target with the talent to go up and get the ball against smaller defenders. Even if Dobson does play, he seemed to fall behind both Thompkins and Boyce in the receiver pecking order this preseason. Perhaps the struggles of Thompkins give Dobson a chance to make up some ground.
Things are also extremely thin at tight end, where Michael Hoomanawanui is the only healthy body on the roster. It remains to be see if the team attempts to bring back one of the veterans (Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard) cut loose at the end of training camp on a emergency basis. Nate Solder occasionally played some blocking tight end on Sunday, reprising a role from his rookie year, but moving your franchise left tackle to tight end is hardly an ideal solution.
To make things worst the Pats are gearing up to play the Jets who, despite all the punchlines, have a pretty good defense. The Jets held a Tampa offense with dangerous playmakers Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Doug Martin to 17 points Sunday and boast a number of good underated players on that side of the ball. It will be interesting to see how the Jets use top cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Will he be sticking with Julian Edelmen, taking away Brady's one experienced receiving option? Will Edelmen be left to a slot corner, with Cromartie taking Thompkins on the outside. Will the Patriots try to go after rookie corner Dee Milliner, who despite his talent has been beat a few times so far in his young career?
With so much uncertainty amongst the receivers, the Patriots will likely try to establish the run. This could be easier said than done though, as the Jets held Tampa's Muscle Hamster to only 65 yards on his 24 carries. There is also the issue of who will be getting the carries with Vereen out. It seems likely that Stevan Ridley gets a chance to redeem himself after getting benched for his two fumbles against Buffalo, but he will obviously be on an extremely short leash with regards to ball security. If Coach Belichick doesn't want to put Ridley back out there yet, he'll likely turn to LeGarrette Blount.
When the Jets have the ball:
With the amount of injuries on offense, it will be imperative for the Patriots defense to play well. How well they play will depend on how they game plan for rookie quarterback Geno Smith. Smith had an up-and-down debut for the Jets on Sunday. He had a few atrocious turnovers (a fumble and an interception) and was sacked 5 times, but the rookie also completed 24 of his 38 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown. The quarterback also lead his team in rushing, picking up 47 yards on his six scrambles (not counting the added penalty yards on a late hit that set up the Jets game winning field goal).
Smith's mobility will have to be accounted for by the Patriots defense, who also faced a mobile quarterback last week in EJ Manuel. The Patriots defense generally did a good job containing Manuel and his explosive running back CJ Spiller, but doing so hurt their pass rush, which failed to register a sack of Manuel. The challenge will be for the defense to get pressure on Smith, hopefully rushing the quarterback into some bad, turnover-producing decisions, without breaking contain and letting him escape and hurt them with his legs.
Smith is tasked with the unenviable task of avoiding mistakes while throwing to a depleted cast of weapons. The Jets offense simply lacks playmakers in both the running and passing game and will likely be missing WR Jeremy Kerley, one of the few guys to consistently produce for them. Their other top receiver, Santonio Holmes, is still very limited as he returns from a foot injury and caught merely one pass for 13 yards Week One.
That leaves Smith with a receiving group of Kellen Winslow Jr (who caught 7 balls for 79 yards and a touchdown last week), Stephen Hill and Bilal Powell coming out of the backfield. Normally the Jets would like to combat this by establishing the run, but the two-headed monster of Powell and Chris Ivory combined for just 44 yards on their 22 carries. Not good.
The bottom line is that this is a limited offensive group which New England's ballhawking defense should be able to curtail. A better showing from the New England pass rush will go a long way towards that.
Special Teams:
The Patriots special teams had an unremarkable start to the season against Buffalo, with the only noteworthy performance being Stephen Gostkowski going 3/3 with a 48 yarder and a game winner. Fun fact: Jet's kicker Nick Folk matched that performance tick for tack on Sunday. However, the Jets find themselves in a bit of a dilemma, as Kerley is their top return man for both kickoffs and punts. With Joe McKnight no longer on the roster, the Jets may have to turn to Kyle Wilson or even Cromartie for return duties.
On the other side, New England's punt return game is fine, as Julian Edelmen's three returns made gave him the needed eligibility to become the NFL's all time leader in career punt return average (13 yards). Their kickoff returns, on the other hand, have lacked explosion, with 250 pound LeGarrette Blount unable to make much of a splash against the Bills. A healthy Leon Washington could change things, but Washington is likely still a week away from making his Patriots debut.
Coaching/Intangables:
The Patriots are at home, which is certainly an advantage in a short week. Perhaps playing in front of the home fans will calm down the nerves of the Patriots many rookies, who looked shaky in front of Buffalo's hostile crowd.
The head coaching matchup is once again Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan. Rex, of course, has made his share of mistakes in New York, the biggest of which is
Talent-wise, this is a game the Patriots absolutely should win. However, there are a lot of problematic matchups, particularly for the Pats offense, in this one that should turn the game into a dogfight. In the end, it's always stupid to bet against Brady and Belichick, but there should be nothing easy about this game.
