How does missing Shane Vereen affect the Patriots offense?

It was largely overshadowed in the euphoria of the Patriots 41-7 beatdown of the hated Ravens, but the Pats suffered another significant injury when Shane Vereen pulled up on a wheel route late in the first quarter. The injury has been listed as a groin injury for the third down back, who would have been limited had the Patriots practiced yesterday.

Missing Vereen is nothing new for the Pats, as Vereen was previously placed on IR/designation to return after breaking his wrist in Week One. That necessitated that Vereen miss eight games (plus the team's Week 10 bye) before making his return in Week 11 against the Panthers. Since then, Vereen has stepped right back into the lineup and been a big part of the offense as a matchup nightmare in coverage for opposing defenses.

So, how will the offense be affected if Vereen misses Week 17 (or potentially longer)? The folks at NESN took an interesting look at Tom Brady's statistics with and without both Vereen and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

• Tom Brady’s 2013 stats: 15 games, 366-604, 4,221 yards, 60.6%, 6.99 yards per attempt, 24 TDs, 10 INTs, 88 QB rating 
• Brady with Vereen: 6.25 games, 191-296, 2,145, 64.5%, 7.2 YPA, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 93.7 QB rating 
• Brady without Vereen: 8.75 games, 171-308, 2,076, 55.5%, 6.7 YPA, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 81.6 QB rating 
• Brady with Gronkowski: 6.5 games, 161-255, 1,937, 63.1%, 7.5 YPA, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 92.6 QB rating 
• Brady without Gronkowski: 8.5 games, 205-349, 2,284, 58.7%, 6.5 YPA, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 84.7 QB rating 
• Brady without Gronkowski and Vereen: 5.5 games, 117-207, 1,300 yards, 56.5%, 6.3 YPA, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 79 QB rating 
• Brady with Gronkowski and Vereen: 3.5 games, 103-154, 1,161 yards, 66.9%, 7.5 YPA, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 94.1 QB rating

The findings? Brady's completion percentage goes up slightly with Vereen, which makes sense as the running back is the target on a lot of short, high percentage passes. His yards per attempt is higher with Gronkowski, which also makes sense as Gronk is a constant threat up the seam.

To the untrained eye, it appears that Brady was slightly better off dealing with the absence of Gronkowski than Vereen. His passer rating, touchdowns and completion percentage are all a hair better with Vereen than with Gronk.

However, those numbers deserve a bit of context. Vereen had the benefit of returning in Week 11 with Gronk already back in the fold. The two then shared the field for the next 3.5 games (Carolina, Denver, Houston, Cleveland) before the Gronkacalyspe struck early in the second half against Cleveland. As a result, the offense has only faced two full games with Vereen but without Gronkowski (Week 1 @ Buffalo, Week 15 @ Miami) and struggled at times in both.

Gronk, on the other hand, returned from his conglomerate of injuries in Week 7, several weeks before Vereen was even eligible to return. The Pats offense faced three full games with Gronk but without Vereen (@ NYJ, vs Miami, vs Pittsburgh), with two of those seeing Brady and Gronk struggle to get their timing back before exploding for 55 points against the Steelers.

The most important statline out of that list? Check out Brady's numbers without both Gronk and Vereen. It's a reminder of the early parts of the season when people foolishly thought Brady was "showing his age" rather than "without anyone to throw to". The Patriots offense is predicated on creating and exploiting mismatches in coverage, with Gronk and Vereen being the Pats toughest weapons to match up with defensively. They clearly can survive without one of them, but the sledding gets real tough when both are out and Brady is forced to rely primarily on his brigade of smurf-sized receivers.

As a result, the Pats face a difficult decision with Vereen this Sunday. A win against a Bills team that has played well recently will clinch a first round playoff bye, while a loss will put them in grave danger of needing to play Wild Card weekend. Do banged up veterans like Vereen, Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty give it a go in an all out effort for the #2 seed? Or do the Pats trust their depth to come through, allowing those important players to get two weeks of rest going into the playoff run?

While I certainly don't have any inside information as to how those guys are feeling, my gut tells me that the Pats will treat this like any other week. If Vereen is healthy enough to go and be effective, he'll go. The odds of that, however, seem unlikely. Groin injuries are difficult to play through, especially for a player who relies on quickness and speed as much as Vereen. Furthermore, an injury of that nature can be susceptible to re-injury if not given the proper time to rest and recover. The odds that Vereen can be close to 100% effective only a week after suffering that kind of injury are slim to none.

The numbers make it clear: the Pats need Vereen to not only play, but play well if they want to make noise in the playoffs. Unless Vereen is healthy enough to make his normal impact, look for him to sit and heal up for the postseason run.