Week 16 Scouting Report: Baltimore Ravens
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When the Ravens have the ball:
Two weeks ago, I described the matchup of New England's 31st ranked rushing defense and Cleveland's 27th ranked rushing offense as "an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object". That Batman reference is back in play this week, as the Pats try to stop a Baltimore rushing attack averaging a league low 3 yards a carry.
The Patriots won that matchup with Cleveland, and replicating that performance against the run will go a long way towards slowing Baltimore down. The Ravens are built to be a power rushing offense supplemented by play action strikes down the field, but a poor season from the offensive line has kept Ray Rice from getting going this year. As a result, Joe Flacco has the fifth most passing attempts in the league (526) and already has career highs in interceptions (17) and sacks (42).
The Patriots would love to stop the run and keep Baltimore's offense one-dimensional, but selling out and stacking the box will be risky due to Flacco's ability to throw down the field. Flacco's weapons are the healthiest they've been all season, and they pose a significant challenge for a Patriots secondary that is being held together with bubblegum and spit at this point.
Baltimore's receivers aren't necessarily the best or most consistent group in the league, but they all can hurt you with big plays down the field. Patriots fans are certainly familiar with Torrey Smith, who has translated his world-class speed into another rock-solid season. They might be less familiar with Marlon Brown, but the undrafted rookie has been productive as a complementary threat for Joe Flacco.
However, the X factor might be Jacoby Jones, who has really come on in recent weeks after being slowed much of the season by an MCL injury. Jones made a key 27 yard catch on 3rd-and-15 last week, setting up Justin Tucker's game winning heroics. More than anyone, Jones embodies the Ravens offensive philosophy. Like Jones, their passing game might not be super efficient or consistent, but when it makes plays, it makes the kind of plays that really hurt you.
It will be interesting to see how the Patriots deploy Aqib Talib in this one. Talib played well last week and claims to be feeling healthier; is that enough for the Patriots to give him 1-on-1 duties with Torrey Smith? Will they instead opt to move Talib around, taking different targets based on the matchups and formations? Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard continue to look hampered by their injuries; can they keep up with Baltimore's deep threats?
Another key for Baltimore is Dennis Pitta, who has been productive in the two weeks since returning from a fractured hip suffered in training camp. Pitta is one of Flacco's favorite targets, particularly in the red zone, and is the type of athletic, pass catching tight end who have really hurt the Patriots recently. Given the struggles of the linebackers in coverage, it wouldn't surprise me if the Pats wind up utilizing Talib on Pitta (as they did at the start last week against Miami TE Charles Clay) to keep Pitta from devouring the middle of the Patriots defense.
Another matchup that should concern the Pats is Ray Rice as a receiver out of the backfield. The coverage struggles of he Patriots bigger linebackers where painfully evident last week, as Donta Hightower was easily beat by RB Marcus Thigpen for the game winning touchdown. Rice may be in the midst of his worst season, but he's still a talented runner in the open field who could do some damage if the Pats don't chip him early in his routes.
Another way to slow down Baltimore is to get a pass rush on Flacco. Flacco's offensive line is coming off one of it's strongest performances of the year, holding a ferocious Detroit front to merely 1 sack, but they've struggled most of the year. Midseason acquisition Eugene Monroe has been an improvement at left tackle, but right tackle Michael Oher has continued to struggle. Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones will need to bring their "A games" this week, as this defense desperately needs some playmakers to start consistently winning their individual matchups and affecting the game.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Tom Brady probably said it best. "Friggin Baltimore. They've always got a good defense."
This year has been no exception. In fact, Baltimore's defense might be improved from last year, despite losing key contributors like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Danell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and (exhales deeply) Bernard Pollard.
An improved pass rush has played a big part in that. All of Baltimore's offseason departures gobbled up the headlines, but the team's sneaky acquisition of DE Elvis Dumervil stayed under the radar. Dumervil has combined with Terrell Suggs, who has been resurgent now that he's had a full year to recover from his 2012 Achilles injury, to be one of the best pass rushing duos in the league. Suggs has 9 sacks, while Dumervil has 9.5, with both bringing consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
It's a tough week for the Patriots to be facing these two, as there's a good possibility that guard Logan Mankins gets the start at left tackle. Suggs is capable of making the league's best left tackles look bad; it will take a big, gutsy performance from Mankins to keep Brady clean in this one. On the other side, second string RT Marcus Canon will have to use his bulk against the undersized Dumervil, who excels at using his combination of speed and power to keep opposing tackles off balance.
Those two merely headline a Baltimore front that is deep and talented. Haloti Ngata is still a beast in the middle against the run, and is supplemented by solid players like Arthur Jones (Chandler's brother), Chris Canty and big Terrance Cody. As a result, the Ravens rank 7th in the league in rushing defense, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry and 102 yards per game.
The Patriots have been a very good running team all season, but they paid for under-utilizing the running game in last week's loss. Baltimore will be a much stiffer test for the running game, which no longer has the benefit of getting constant nickel looks due to the pass catching threat of Gronk. If they Patriots can establish a running game it will pay enormous dividends, not only from a pure production standpoint but also in helping to keep the offense balanced and hold the aforementioned pass rushers in check.
Another improvement in the Ravens defense has come from the pass coverage of Baltimore's linebackers. Ray Lewis' replacement, Daryl Smith, has finally received some attention for his play after excelling for years under the radar in Jacksonville. Lewis' diminishing speed in coverage was an elephant in the room for Baltimore last year, but Smith has stepped in and played great football all season. With Jameel McClain and Courtney Upshaw playing bigger roles this year, the Baltimore linebackers have gotten considerably younger and more athletic this year.
It will be interesting to see how Baltimore's linebackers handle the matchup with Shane Vereen. Miami made the pass catching back a focal point of their defense and shut him down, with former Raven Ellerbe drawing much of the assignment. With Smith as a middle linebacker and Upshaw best suited to rush the passer, McClain could wind up drawing the assignment. It's also possible the Ravens could use a safety to spy on Vereen.
That brings us to Baltimore's secondary, which has benefited from a strong comeback year from CB Ladarius Webb, a breakthrough year from CB Jimmy Smith, a spark from rookie first round safety Matt Elam and a surprisingly good season from former Patriot sieve James Ihedigbo. As always, Baltimore's secondary plays a physical style that is tough to go against, as evidenced by opposing quarterbacks completing only 56% of their passes against them.
However, the Achilles heal of Baltimore's secondary has been the big play. They've given up 44 plays of 20+ yards and 16 of 40+, numbers that bring their yards allowed to a middle of the pack 231 per game. This is where the potential return of rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins could really help the Pats, as they represent much more of a downfield threat than slot-type targets Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. The Pats best passing options could be try to target some of Baltimore's depth options in the secondary, as Baltimore does a relatively good job of controlling the middle of the field where Tom Brady and his slot targets like to operate.
Special Teams:
Justin Tucker has deservedly gotten all the headlines this week, and it's worth noting that his range and accuracy could have an impact if this game goes down to the wire. However, the biggest concern for the Pats this week should be return man Jacoby Jones, who has the explosive ability to change a game on a single play. The kick and punt coverage teams have been solid most of the season for the Patriots and will need to put up another workmanlike performance to prevent Jones from breaking one for a big play.
Coaching:
There are few coaches that aren't in an obvious mismatch when matched up with Bill Belichick, and John Harbaugh belongs on that elite list. Harbaugh has had nothing but success since coming to Baltimore, including head-to-head success against the Patriots. It's also worth noting that Dean Pees, Baltimore's defensive coordinator, formerly held that title under Belichick in New England, and certainly is familiar with Tom Brady's strengths and weaknesses.
Intangibles:
The stakes are huge for both teams in this one. A New England loss could leave the Patriots, seemingly posed to take over the AFC's #1 seed just last week, playing for their playoff lives in Week 17. Meanwhile, a Baltimore cannot afford a loss, especially with it's two main competitors for the playoffs (Miami and Cincinnati) playing favorable matchups this week. These teams never need any extra motivation to get up to play each other, but the stakes ensure this one will practically be a playoff game.
One big factor in Baltimore's favor is playing at home. Grantland's Bill Barnwell noted in his column today that the Ravens enjoy one of the leagues best homefield advantages, while the Patriots have struggled to a 3-4 road record this year. A win in Baltimore would be huge for the Patriots, not just in clinching a playoff berth, but also in building confidence in the team's ability to beat a quality opponent in a hostile environment.
Another thing to watch for this game is the weather. There's a possibility of "severe thunderstorms" hitting the Baltimore area that afternoon. Of course, a weather-related delay would be nothing new for the Ravens, who have somehow seen three different game's delayed since the infamous Super Bowl blackout back in February.
