A Call to Arms: Jared Allen
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However, back in reality, the Patriots find themselves in a difficult position with the salary cap. As things currently stand, the Patriots are only $3.9 million under the projected $126.3 million cap for 2014. They will certainly be moves coming to save some money for this year, but much of that will likely be used to address pending free agents like Aqib Talib and Julian Edelman.
Because of this cap situation, the Patriots appear unlikely to have the kind of space to make a major splash in free agency. However, there could be some more affordable, under-the-radar targets out there that could make sense for this team to pursue. I'll be taking a look at some of the potential value signings available this offseason over the next few months. Up today: former Vikings defensive end Jared Allen
Name: Jared Allen
Position: Defensive End
Teams: Kansas City Chiefs (four years), Minnesota Vikings (six years)
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 270
Age: 31 (32 on April 3)
2013 Stats: 52 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
PFF Ranking: Despite his solid conventional stats, Allens -4.0 grade for 2013 pushes him all the way down to 31st on ProFootballFocus' list of free agent edge defenders.
Fit: Consistency has defined Allen's great career. You have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a season when Allen failed to reach double digit sacks, with his 7.5 that year being a career low. You have to go all the way back to 2004, his rookie season, to find a year when he didn't play all 16 games (he "only" played 15 that year). 2004 is also the only season in his career without a forced fumble. During his six seasons with the Vikings, he's averaged 14.25 sacks along with nearly 3 forced fumbles per year. The man's job is to get after the quarterback, and few have done it better than him over the past decade.
However, Allen's age will likely be a deterrent to him getting a big payday this spring. With his 32nd birthday rapidly approaching, there are already whispers out there that Allen's production could jump off a cliff any year now. Allen's slow start to 2013 didn't help matters, as he struggled for much of the year before turning it on with 6.5 sacks in the last five games.
Former NFL scout and director of Pro Personnel Louis Riddick summed up the skeptic's viewpoint on Allen recently, telling Rotoworld the following:
"With Jared, I see a player with diminishing get-off quickness, an inability to win on the edge against quality competition without benefiting from the QB holding the ball too long, marginal stamina as an every-down end and an average point-of-attack run defender that does not play with a consistent level of competitiveness"Riddick's assessment makes sense at face value: its entirely logical that Allen is starting to wear down after nine consecutive 16 game seasons. Any team that pays Allen expecting him to be an every down monster will likely find that he simply doesn't have the juice to bring it every play anymore. However, Riddick fails to account for the possibility that Allen could be rejuvenated with a reduced workload as a situational pass rusher, a role he would be filling with the Patriots.
The Patriots absolutely need some depth to complement starting defensive ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Both Jones and Ninkovich had excellent seasons in 2013, but both had a ridiculous workload (they ranked #1 and #2 in the league in snaps played by a defensive lineman) that understandably wore them down a bit by the end of the year. This was particularly evident in the AFC Championship game, when the Patriots didn't get close to even touching Peyton Manning despite him taking more time than usual in the pocket.
If signed, Allen would be a perfect complement to Jones and Ninkovich. Playing in a rotation with the aforementioned starters would enable Allen to stay fresh and minimize his snaps against the run (where he is OK but not nearly as effective as he is rushing the passer), while simultaneously preventing Ninkovich and Jones from getting too worn down. For a player as reliant on his relentless motor as Allen, this kind of role could be a career-extending godsend. We all saw this kind of strength-in-numbers approach work to perfection this year with Seattle, whose rotation of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Chris Clemons and Bruce Irving terrorized opposing passers all season. Adding Allen would bring that kind of dynamic to the Patriots, helping take some of the defensive burden away from their secondary.
As usual, apologies for the crappy music.
Likelihood: This depends entirely on Allen. Even at his age, it would be shocking if he doesn't receive offers beyond the Patriots price range. If this is simply a matter of the highest bidder, the Patriots can't expect much.
However, the Patriots long track record of success might be a trump card. Allen has only made the playoffs four times in his illustrious career, with only one of those trips extending past the first round. He's 76-83 (.477) in his career. With nearly $77 million already in career earnings and no big contract likely on the way, it wouldn't be a surprise if Allen takes less money to play with a contender and try to get a Super Bowl ring before he retires.
Money is one issue, but contract length will be another interesting aspect to watch in negotiations. As a 10 year veteran, Allen is certainly aware that his league-wide value could plummet any year from now thanks to his age. He certainly will want the security of multi-year deal, rather than playing contract to contract. Allen might have to choose between a shorter contract with more money up front, or a longer deal with a lower annual average. It's hard to imagine many teams being willing to give Allen a three year deal, paying him until the verge of his 35th birthday.
The key to this from a Patriots perspective becomes how much of a discount Allen will be willing to give. The Patriots simply don't have the cap space to make a big splash, especially with $7.5 million tied up in dead money owed to Aaron Hernandez and at least one of Aqib Talib or Julian Edelman in line for a payday. There's a slight chance that the allure of playing with Brady and Belichick will be enough to reel Allen in, but unfortunately it's far more likely that the extra million another team can afford to offer will be the difference.
