Top 5 free agent safeties the Patriots could sign
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Unfortunately, this idea is contrasted with a less than ideal cap situation. While the unexpected jump in the salary cap helps, moving their cap space from $3.9 million to $12.7 million after the release of Steve Gregory, the Pats will likely be tight against the cap just after trying to resign it's own key free agents (Aqib Talib, Julian Edelman, LeGarrette Blount to name a few). It may take more cost cutting moves just to be able to supplement the roster.
With that in mind, lets take a look at the free agent market for safeties. Releasing Gregory was a no-brainer considering their cap situation, but it pushes Duron Harmon into a starting role with very little in the way of veteran insurance. Even if Adrian Wilson isn't cut initially for cap savings, he could be facing an uphill battle for a job at his age, and Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner have played very sparingly on defense (both contribute on special teams). If the Patriots see this as a position they need to upgrade, they could open their wallets and try to add a physical starter to complement Devin McCourty. Even if they are confident in Harmon and would prefer to spend on other needs (the course of action I'd advise), they could still look to bolster their depth with a veteran signing.
NOTE: I tried to limit this list to guys who are at least semi-plausable. Jairus Byrd is looking for over $9 million a season. Fuggedaboutit.
1. TJ Ward
If you're motive for signing a safety to try to add a Rodney Harrison-type of intimidating presence in your secondary, Ward is your guy. At 27, Ward is entering his prime, and he's excelled the past few seasons despite playing for the dumpster fire that is the Cleveland Browns. Some Patriots fans might have to get over their believe that Ward took out Rob Gronkowski's knee with a dirty hit, but that should be easier once common sense takes over and they realize that hits like that are unfortunately legal and fairly common in the modern NFL.
That one play shouldn't cloud Pats fans judgement of Ward, who is an excellent player. While his best attribute is his ability to lay the lumber, Ward is far from a one-dimensional thumper. He has enough athleticism to hold up well in coverage, evidenced by opposing quarterbacks' 61.3 rating when targetting him in 2013. He's a sound, physical tackler who makes his presence felt against the run. He's also an underrated blitzer whose blend of speed and physicality make him a load for running backs to pick up in protection.
While there's no question Ward would be an excellent fit in New England, I still think this is a pipe dream. He won't cost the $9 million a year Jairus Byrd is seeking, but Ward is going to cost a pretty penny this offseason, especially with teams around the league looking to recreate Seattle's success with big hitting safety Kam Chancellor. Signing Ward would emphatically fill one need, but would likely keep the Patriots out of the market for help at other, arguably more pressing needs. The X's and O's make sense here, but I think there are smarter financial plays out there, starting with #2 on this list.
2. Kerry Rhodes
Rhodes is a fascinating case. He's been a very productive playmaker throughout his career, which includes an All Pro selection with the Jets, and graded out as the fourth best safety in 2012 on Profootballfocus. Despite that, Rhodes went unsigned in 2013 after being a cap casualty in Arizona, and many believe rumors about Rhodes' sexuality contributed to his inability to find a team.
Despite not playing in 2013, Rhodes insists that he hasn't retired and hopes to play this season. He's 31, which is a concern, but he's still reportedly in excellent shape and actually could benefit from a year off from the wear-and-tear of a long NFL season. Also, when asked on a Deadspin live Q&A which team he would most like to play for, regardless of the contract situation, he answered New England.
Given the lack of a market for Rhodes and the veteran safeties stated desire to play for a winner, Rhodes can likely be had at a fraction of the cost for a TJ Ward or Donte Whitner. Rhodes would also likely bring a spark to the defense, adding a playmaking presence alongside the steady, responsible play of Devin McCourty. The guy simply has a nose for the football, and also bring the versatility Bill Belichick loves with his ability to blitz, cover and hit. The money saved by adding Rhodes instead of a Ward or Whitner type could then go towards adding a pass rusher (perhaps Jared Allen?).
3. Donte Whitner
Whitner isn't quite as good as TJ Ward, but will bring a similar physical presence to wherever he signs. Previously written off as a Top 10 bust in Buffalo, Whitner has turned his career around the past three seasons in San Francisco under Jim Harbaugh, where he's been a starter for one the league's best defenses.
Like Ward, Whitner is best known for delivering punishing hits, but can also cover with the best of them. Inconsistency is probably the one thing separating Whitner from the game's top safeties, but he's coming off of an excellent 2013 season and most likely still has a few years of top level play left at age 29.
Again like Ward, Whitner would be a fine addition to New England's defense in a vacuum, but I think the cost will make it a far less prudent option. As another guy who will likely benefit from both the expanding cap and Seattle's influence on the league, Whitner could be looking at offers in the Dashon Goldson range (5 years, $41.25 million). Committing $8 million a year to a safety simply doesn't make sense considering the team's cap situation and other needs. I also have a lot of doubts whether Whitner is even close to a $8 million a year player, considering most of his success has come when surrounded by talent in San Francisco.
4. Chris Clemons
Arguably the best of the second-tier (aka affordable) safeties on the market, Clemons is a guy Bill Belichick is familiar with after playing him for years in Miami. He's also a very solid, albeit unspectacular player, consistently earning good marks for his range and coverage ability over his five seasons in Miami. At 28, Clemons should still have several good years ahead of him.
Signing Clemons would represent a much more affordable way to supplement the position, as the market will be significantly less robust for him than Ward/Whitner/Byrd. If the Pats have reservations about turning the starting job over to Harmon this early, Clemons could become a nice option to fill that role for a few years, buying the team more time to either develop Harmon or (gulp) try to find their next safety in the draft.
5. Ryan Clark
At 34, Clark would only be an option on a short-term deal, but the former Steeler could be a nice bargain signing for someone. Clark isn't quite the standout he was a few years ago in Pittsburgh, with his numbers regressing to about league average last season, but he's a smart player with a ton of experience who can still lay down the occasional big hit. Patriots fans don't need any reminder of how physical Clark can be, although Wes Welker might not even remember this play.
The biggest attribute Clark will bring to a team is leadership. He's an intelligent, hard-working veteran, respected throughout the league and was a leader for years in Pittsburgh. He'll also bring a little bit of that nasty that Pats fans want to see from the defense, without costing an arm and a leg to sign. Bringing in Clark might not be much, if any, of a talent upgrade at this point, but it could be worth the minor investment just to have Clark around to mentor the promising Harmon.
Honorable Mention: Antoine Bethea, Malcolm Jenkins, Stevie Brown, Mike Mitchell, Major Wright
