Patriots Draft Needs: Positional review- Interior offensive line
 |
| Richburg would instantly upgrade Brady's protection |
Position: Guard/Center
Currently under contract:
Logan Mankins (signed through 2016)
Dan Connolly (signed through 2014)
Ryan Wendell (signed through 2015)
Josh Kline (signed through 2015)
Chris Barker (signed through 2015)
Braxton Cave (signed through 2015)
Need: Short-term: Moderate, Long-term:High
Positional outlook:
As things currently stand, the Patriots return all three starters from 2013. Unfortunately, that's a cause for concern, as Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell all had disappointing seasons last year. The Patriots have proven they can win with this line, but if the opportunity presents itself to upgrade, they should seriously consider it.
As most things Patriots-related do, the argument for this stems from it's effect on Tom Brady. We've seen at plenty of inopportune times that pressure up the middle is Brady's kryptonite, and Brady was under plenty of pressure in 2013. The 40 sacks he took were the second most in his career, trailing only his first year as a starter in 2001. Worst, that pressure was often in on Brady quickly. According to ProFootballFocus, Brady was amongst the NFL's top five in pressure faced both in under 2 seconds and between 2.1 and 2.5 seconds. Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer were the only other two quarterbacks to land on both lists.
The Patriots re-signed Ryan Wendell to cover their bases at center, but Wendell's contract is inexpensive enough to make benching him palatable if a better option comes along. Wendell is a good run blocker, but he's struggled in pass protection each of his two years as a starter. He'd be an excellent backup, with the flexibility to fill in at guard in a pinch.
At guard, the Patriots face some tough financial decisions. Dan Connolly is surprisingly still on the team, despite a $4 million cap hit for 2014. Connolly is no spring chicken at 32, and his play has declined for two straight seasons. If the Patriots can find an upgrade, Connolly will likely be cut, saving the team $3 million in cap space.
In fact, a potential upgrade could be lurking on the roster in Marcus Cannon. Cannon was projected to go in the 2011 second round as a guard, but a diagnosis of Non-Hodgkins lmphoma pushed him back into New England's lap in the fifth round. The Patriots have used Cannon as a backup tackle, where he was an effective fill-in for Sebastien Vollmer last year, but adding another tackle could free Cannon up to move to guard, where he has the potential to be monster.
Finally, the draft is the time to look ahead and consider all the nasty possibilities the future holds, and one of those could be contract drama next year with Mankins. Mankins has been a rock for the Patriots, but his play hasn't lived up to his hefty pricetag in the past few years. Mankins will cost $10.5 million against the cap this year, a number the Patriots will live with thanks to the $8 million in dead money left on his deal. However, if Mankins doesn't improve from his 2013 play next year, the Pats will face a tough decision in 2015, when his cap hit balloons to $11 million. At that point, his dead money will be down to $4 million, and a release will save the team about $7 million in cap room. I hope I'm wrong and Mankins submits a vintage performance this year, but this could easily become his last year in New England if his play continues to plateau.
Ideal fit: Weston Richburg, Colorado State
Richburg flew under the radar a bit playing for Colorado State, but he has caught the eyes of scouts during the pre-draft process. As a result, he has a good chance to leapfrog Travis Swanson and Marcus Martin as the first center to be taken on draft day, with most projections placing him in the second round. There's even a chance he could sneak into the first round, although that seems less likely considering the other prospects who will still be available there.
The Patriots are rumored to be one of the teams highly interested in Richburg (joined by the Packers, Broncos and Jaguars) and it's easy to see why, as he's a pro ready, well-rounded prospect with no glaring weaknesses in his game. At 6'3", 300, he has a prototypical center build, with the strength to anchor in protection against the bull rush. He also shows surprising athleticism for a man his size, which he utilizes well to reach defenders at the second level on screens and sweeps.
Other qualities to like about Richburg: he's tough, durable and very smart. He started all 49 games of his collegiate career and handled the line calls for an offense that averaged 461 yards per game in 2013. The only real knock on him is that he spent a lot of team beating up on inferior competition, but Richburg also played well against high-profile programs like Boise State and Alabama. He also showed well at the Senior Bowl, holding up against some of the top defensive tackle prospects in the country.
Tight end and pass rusher are considered bigger needs for the Patriots, but Richburg appears to be a very safe pick who could be immediately plugged into the starting lineup and instantly upgrade the Patriots interior line, recalling the Patriots surprising decision to take Logan Mankins in the 2005 first round. He'll certainly be a candidate to be their first draft pick, especially if they can trade back into the early second round with a team looking to leapfrog Houston and take a quarterback at 29.
Other potential fits:
Marcus Martin, USC
Martin is a little less polished and pro-ready than Richburg, but he's a phenomenal prospect in his own right who could be an excellent fall-back option if the Patriots don't land Richburg early. In fact, Martin might even have a higher upside than Richburg.
The first thing that stands out about Martin is his size. At 6'3", 320, Martin is a mountain of a man who excels at anchoring in protection against the bull rush. He won't get pushed around, even by the biggest, nastiest nose tackles (for evidence, see this rock-solid performance against Notre Dame's Louis Nix).
He's also a deft athlete for his size, capable both of mirroring pass rushers and reaching linebackers at the second level, and plays with the kind of nastiness you like to see from a lineman. He also has experience at guard, having played there from 2011-2012, and could fill in there in a pinch if need be.
Martin has a few mechanical issues that push him below Richburg in most scout's eyes. He could do a better job of sustaining blocks, and sometimes over-extends himself and gets off balance. Both issues stem from a tendency to go for the knock-out blow rather than maintaining a steady block, an habit that could easily get coached out of him.
Other than that, there are no glaring flaws in Martin's game. Like Richburg, his talent is undeniable, and he'd provide an instant upgrade at center if drafted. The Patriots would probably be ecstatic if he fell all the way to them at 62, but that seems unlikely at this juncture; moving up could be a possibility if he falls into the late 40s/early 50s range.
Travis Swanson, Arkansas
 |
| Swanson could start off the bat, and he'll be available in the middle rounds |
Swanson ceiling probably falls short of the Pro Bowl potential Richburg and Martin have, but there's plenty of reason to think he'll be a productive starter at the next level. In fact, Swanson can do pretty much everything Martin and Richburg can, just at a lesser level.
At 6'5", 312, he's taller but not as bulky as the top two prospects, and won't engulf pass rushers as they do. However, he manages to compensate with excellent technique, and has enough power to anchor against the bull rush. He also gets the most out of his athletic ability, and demonstrates the ability to pull and reach defenders at the second level, which is very important in the Patriots zone-based scheme.
Swanson also displays many of the intangibles you like to see in your starting center. He's durable and tough, having started 50 consecutive games at Arkansas, and was a two-time captain with the Razorbacks. He's also very intelligent, and excelled at making the line calls with the Razorbacks. Finally, he's battle tested, with four years under his belt going against high-level SEC talent.
He might not "wow" you the way Martin and Richburg do, but Swanson looks like a rock-solid, well-rounded player on tape. He's done nothing in the pre-draft process to tarnish that, impressing during one-on-one drills at the Senior Bowl and enjoying a good combine performance. If the Patriots decide to address their needs at pass rusher or tight end with their early picks, he'll be an excellent fall-back option, with the potential to start and upgrade the offensive line right away as a rookie. If he falls into the fourth round and becomes a greater value, all the better.
David Yankey, Stanford
If the Patriots are going to spend an early round pick on a lineman, I'd prefer it to be on a center, simply because there isn't a Marcus Cannon-type wild card on the roster who could fill the need at center. However, given the uncertain status of Connolly and Mankins going forward, guard could be a consideration as well, especially if a prospect is available to the team's liking.
If they do consider drafting a guard, Yankey could be a nice option. At 6'5", 311, he brings a nice combination of power and speed, and comes well-coached and battle-tested, with two All America selections to his name playing in the Pac 12. He's also one of the most well-rounded guards in the draft, and proved to be excellent both as a run and pass blocker at Stanford. He was frequently called on to pull in college, a staple of the Patriots ground game, and only allowed one sack in his 42 career starts. He also displayed versatility in 2012, when he filled in at left tackle for a year, and he brings all the "lunch-pail intangibles" (toughness, durability, dependability, etc) you look for in a starting lineman.
Yankey appears to be as safe a pick as there is, but there's little consensus of where he'll be picked come draft day. I've seen him projected everywhere from the second to fourth round. I've seen him pegged as the third best guard in the draft (trailing only Notre Dame's Zack Martin and UCLA's Xavier Su'a-Filo), and I've seen him pegged behind "higher upside" prospects like Mississippi State's Gabe Jackson and Baylor's Cyril Richardson. The one thing the scouts seem to agree on is that Yankey has the tools to, at the very least, be a solid starter in the pros. If he slips far enough to become a good value pick, he could be a tempting option for the Pats.
Brandon Thomas, Clemson
 |
| Thomas could be a great value, but he'd have to be stashed for a year |
The circumstances are similar to the case of Marcus Cannon, a second round rated prospect whom the Patriots landed in the 2011 fifth round after he was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The similarities even extend to on the field, where Thomas played tackle in college but is projected as a guard at the next level thanks to his occasional issues with speed rushers. He brings good power and athleticism to the position and would be a fit in the Pats zone blocking scheme, with his ability to play tackle if needed only enhancing his value.
I wouldn't expect the Patriots to use a high pick on a player who won't contribute this year, but Thomas will become more intriguing the farther he falls down the draft board. If he lasts into the fifth round (as Cannon did in 2011), the value could be too good to pass up. The Pats would likely few the scenario as an opportunity to add an extra second round caliber player next year, at the cost of their fifth this year. That's excellent value, and would leave them with Thomas stashed and ready to take over a starting role in 2015 should Mankins or Connolly wind up out the door after this year.
Potential reach: Dakota Dozier, Furman
Dozier is another guy who played tackle in college but is projected to move inside at the pro levels. He's also one of this year's small school risers, as he's intrigued scouts with a promising combination of power and athleticism. He's also nasty and durable, and projects well in a zone blocking scheme. As a result, he's largely been projected as a third/fourth rounder, with an outside chance of going in the second if someone really likes his upside.
While that upside is admittedly high, Dozier is a bit raw as a prospect. His technique is messy, with a particularly bad habit of over-extending in pass protection. His footwork and hand usage could also use a lot of work. He also played tackle exclusively in college, and will face a learning curve as he transitions inside at the pro level. Intriguing, yes. Pro ready? Not so much.
The Patriots have too many needs and will have too many good players available at those needs to justify spending a relatively early pick on a project guard who might not be ready to contribute as a rookie. If they are going to invest significant draft currency on improving their interior line, it should be on a player who will represent an immediate upgrade in Tom Brady's protection this year. Dozier could be a good investment for someone else, but he isn't the best fit for the Patritos current circumstances.
Potential sleeper: Tyler Larsen, Utah State
 |
| Larsen could be a late-round steal |
While there's plenty to like about Larsen, his ceiling is considerably lower than Richburg, Martin or Swanson, largely thanks to his shorter arms. Larsen had the shortest wingspan of any lineman at the scouting combine. Unfortunately for him, that weakness shows up on tape at times, as he sometimes struggles to maintain his blocks against bigger, stronger defensive tackles.
However, the list of scrappy centers who have developed into better players than their attributes would suggest is long (former fifth round pick Dan Koppen fits that description), and Larsen has every other tool to succeed in the pros. If the Patriots think he has the potential to develop into a starting center down the road, he'll be an excellent value, especially if he falls as far as the fifth/sixth round range.
High risk, high reward: Cyril Richardson, Baylor
The upside is high with the massive Richardson, a player who has the potential to develop into a mauling run blocker. At 6'5" and 329 pounds, Richardson has the kind of size to simply engulf his opponents, something that serves him well in pass protection. He's also deceptively athletic for a man his size, something he shows both by his ability to pull and the fact that he played left tackle in 2011, protected RGIII's blindside.
This is intriguing, but there's also a bust factor here. Richardson carries some (okay, a lot of) bad weight. He got away with it in college, but it's something that could affect his conditioning in the pros, where he'll be going against better, faster prospects. It certainly didn't help him at the Senior Bowl, where Pittsburgh's Aaron Donald ate him for lunch all week.
His intensity also wavered at Baylor, causing him to underachieve a little bit. While he still played well overall, earning Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year honors his final two years, one gets the sense that a fully focused and in-shape Richardson could dominate. However, he doesn't appear to have put the time in to reach his full potential yet.
It's fully possible that Richardson could develop into a monster if put in the right situation with strong coaching and good mentoring veterans. However, the second/third round range Richardson's been projected to go in is a bit rich for a prospect with some of his flaws, especially since Richardson is a better fit for a man-blocking scheme than the Patriots zone-system, which emphasizes mobility over pure size and power.
