Patriots roster projection 1.0

Welcome to the first post in a series of projected rosters. We'll take a look back and adjust the day after each preseason game, leading up to the final cuts giving us the 2014 New England Patriots. What's unique about this season (and maybe to Bill Belichick a hidden perk of the Brandon Browner suspension) is that the Pats get to essentially have a 54 man roster for four weeks. This will allow the coach extra time with the players he keeps in the last few roster spots, and he'll be able to make a more informed decision on what's essentially his final cut.

For a point of reference, I'm going to compare this first projection to Mike Reiss' projection. There are some notable differences, and it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Quarterbacks (3)
Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett
Jimmy Garoppolo

-I want to be able to put a (2) next to that QB spot so badly, but Garoppolo has struggled early in camp. Nerves may be playing a role, as any player in college wouldn't fumble the snap as frequently as he has through the early stages of camp. If he improves, you may see Mallett become trade bait, but there's no way that they just cut Mallett loose. They used a 3rd round pick on him, they'll want to get all they can. Reiss had the same projection as above.

Running backs (4)
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
James White
Roy Finch

-Reiss has Brandon Bolden making the roster over Finch, but I don't see that being the case. In fact, I think Stephan Houston will be ahead of Bolden in the pecking order. In a passing offense, I think having several shifty backs is not a bad thing, so carrying all three of Vereen, White, and Finch is realistic. Bolden certainly has value, but it's also the wise economic decision, as the younger guys would be in control longer than he will.

Wide Receivers (7)
Julian Edelman
Danny Amendola
Aaron Dobson
Kenbrell Thompkins
Brandon LaFell
Josh Boyce
Matthew Slater

-Reiss has Slater listed as a special teams player, which we all hope is the case during the year. I list him as a receiver because he's simply not one of the specialty positions like a long snapper or kicker, but Reiss has all 7 of these men on his roster. I think that Boyce and LaFell are the people that need to watch their back, as any addition like a Dustin Keller could bump one of them off the roster.

Tight Ends/Fullback (3)
Rob Gronkowski
Michael Hoomanawanui
James Develin

-Third of the first four projections I agree with Reiss (I promise there's disagreement coming), though I lump TE/FB together because Develin will be playing both positions from all estimations. Even if another TE is added, I think all three of these men are locks.

Offensive Linemen (10)
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Logan Mankins
Ryan Wendell
Josh Kline
Marcus Cannon
Jon Halapio
Bryan Stork
Cameron Flemming
Chris Barker

-Reiss only has 9 players making the line, where I have 10. Chris Barker is the player Reiss doesn't have, and has a line through his name because he is the player I believe will get released when Browner returns from suspension after week 4. The reason I add a 10th linemen is because Belichick has a lot of turnover here. Several rookies trying to prove worth, veterans fighting for playing time, and a brand new positional coach will make it a difficult area to assess. Value on special teams could be a major point of emphasis for the young guys, or if any of them can be effective as a goal line blocking tight end. That puts the entire offense at a total of 27 players, leaving 27 more for both defense and special teams combined.

Defensive Linemen (8)
Rob Ninkovich
Vince Wilfork
Tommy Kelly
Chandler Jones
Will Smith
Dominique Easley
Sealver Siliga
Chris Jones

-This is where I make up for adding positions elsewhere, as Reiss has 10 players including Michael Buchanan and Zach Moore. With the offensive line able to add more bodies to special teams being expanded to 10, it's not as imperative to have an expanded line roster on this side of the ball. With talented players across the board, the roster spots can be better left for question mark areas like safety. I would peg Zach Moore as somebody who they can hopefully sneak onto the practice squad to protect the depth. Buchanan is simply a case of too much talent in front of him to merit a spot. Vellano is not being mentioned with a lot of these guys by anybody observing training camp, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him be an early cut.

Linebackers (6)
Jerod Mayo
Dont'a Hightower
Jamie Collins
James Anderson
Chris White
Steve Beauharnais

-Back on the same page with Reiss here, and it's hard to see any other outcome. I think 6 is the right number to carry, as sub packages will give most guys plenty of rest. Mayo returning to the middle of this defense has been an underrated story all year. Wilfork, Mayo, and Devin McCourty provide leadership right up the middle of the defense.

Defensive Backs (10)
Darrelle Revis
Brandon Browner* (suspended first 4 weeks, doesn't count against 53 man until then)
Logan Ryan
Alfonzo Dennard
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Tavon Wilson
Kyle Arrington
Jemea Thomas
Nate Ebner

-Reiss has only 9, and cuts Tavon Wilson, but I wouldn't be so quick on that front. He also breaks up corners and the safety spot, but I think that's tough to do with the way this team is developing. Logan Ryan could be used as a safety, Alfonzo Dennard could do the same. All we know is that those talented individuals are making the roster unless a trade is made. Personally, I think Wilson could push Harmon for the starting safety job if it's between the two. I would also consider the loser of the battle to be up for release along with Baker from the offensive line after week 4 when the team must make a roster move.

Special Teams (3)
K- Stephen Gostowski
P- Ryan Allen
LS- Tyler Ott

-The affectionately nicknamed "Meat" (Gostowski) and Allen are unopposed in camp, so they are likely locks unless they get lazy. Danny Aiken could be on his way out, as he only signed a one year deal. If Ott is 90% the player Aiken is, they'll go with Ott because he will be under team control for several seasons to come. Reiss sticks with Aiken for now, but notes the possibility of Ott taking the job. I'm sold he will, as the Harvard graduate makes financial sense, much like Allen did last year over the incumbent Zoltan Mesko.

What are your thoughts on the 53...well 54 man roster? Any sleepers you think take a slot? Let's chat about it on twitter @TheFib0624

--Bill Stiles


*Edit: As of 8am this morning, Reiss put out a new projection. Only change is that he adds D.J. Williams as a third tight end, and cuts Tommy Kelly as a surprise veteran cut of preseason*