Tom Brady far from done as top 5 fantasy QB

Photo by James Squire/Getty Images

The New England Patriots offense was in transition last season, and Tom Brady owners suffered the consequences. The team, which had scored over 60 total touchdowns in the two years prior, plummeted down to only 47 touchdowns. The new receivers, attempting to develop a running game, and injuries all played a part in the issues. Apparently the fantasy experts deemed this to be a crippling blow to Brady's value going forward. There are one or two analysts who deem Brady to still be top tier for the popular game, but no major site averages Brady as higher than 7.5 in their QB ratings:


ESPN ranks Brady number 10
Yahoo ranks Brady number 10 (individual expert rankings at 10,12,12,15, and 4)
CBS Sports two experts ranks him at #9 and #6 - a 7.5 average


While some of the players ahead of Brady, such as regular season megastar Peyton Manning, make complete sense, others are just mind boggling. Matt Ryan is ahead of Brady on some lists, which makes no sense considering the loss of Tony Gonzalez who served as an incredible safety net for Ryan. Julio Jones returning will help him, but without that steady presence across the middle, I'm not sold on his fantasy numbers.

The questions come when talking about comparable fantasy players like Matthew Stafford. Stafford put up 4650 yards with 29 touchdowns and 19 interceptions last year. That's certainly ahead of Brady with 4343 yards and 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, but Stafford had his best weapon last year. Let's look at Brady's numbers when Rob Gronkowski was healthy for 7 weeks (includes the Cleveland game where his knee was blown to bits).

Brady (7 games) 2205 yards 13 TDs 5 INTs

If you do the math to get the per game averages, and play that out over 16 weeks, Brady throws for 5040 yards, 29.7 TDs, and only 11.4 INTs, numbers that exceed Stafford's fantasy value. Now, while Gronkowski's injuries make it difficult to rely on him, there are a few aspects that we should be able to count on helping Brady. One is the ability of the defense to get off the field on third down, as it has to be better than last season thanks to signings and returns from injury. The defense ending drives early will help Brady with field position, and number of chances Brady gets with the ball.

The other piece I'd rely on would be the development of the receivers. Now, I'm not saying that these players are going from decent to top tier, but expected progression and knowledge of the playbook would clean up a lot of mistakes that ended drives last season. Keeping the ball in Brady's hands usually results in good things, and that goes doubly so when you're playing a stats driven game. You may not be able to draft him in the 6th round with the 199th pick, but drafting Tom Brady will get you top 5 QB value. Each league is different, so I won't give you a spot to draft him, but I would start looking his way after Drew Brees comes off the board.

Stats via ESPN

-Bill Stiles
@TheFib0624