How do teams balance their rosters?
It's funny, when you sit back and think of the tough calls the Patriots have to make each season, it seems like they're playing with a smaller roster than most teams. It's natural, every home team feels that way, but it does get a little bit easier once you understand the numbers behind a roster. Let's talk about some typical numbers and where the Patriots may land.
Quarterback- 2-3 spots: In today's NFL a Tom Brady would never happen. Roster spots are more valuable each day, and 4th string QBs rarely (if ever) exist anymore even in training camp. The benefit of having an elite starter isn't just in on field performance, it's that you're not benching Tom Brady. There's no controversy, and that makes carrying two QBs easier. I'd hope the Patriots carry two, but nobody is going to blame them if they carry 3
Running Back- 4-6 spots: Teams will tend to be higher in this spot if their best special teams performers handle this area (instead of a Matt Slater type who takes up a WR spot). Having somebody who returns kicks well and plays a position also saves you a roster spot, and backs can be exactly that type of player. For the Patriots expect no more than 5.
Receiver- 5-8 spots: This position varies by style of offense. 5 could be tops for a physical offense, where 7 could be a little short for teams that spread it around. New Orleans seems like a high end team, where the Seahawks probably carry less receivers to bulk up on pass rushers. The Patriots don't have elite talent at the position, and have a special teams expert here, so anticipate the higher end of this total.
Offensive Line- 8-10 spots: This is a position which requires great depth, and for far more than injury. You need bigger men on the special teams units, and don't want to wear our your best players. Injuries obviously play a part, as does the risk of shoes being stepped on and players needing a play off to adjust, so offensive line is one of the deepest positions on the roster. The Patriots will likely carry at least 9.
Defensive Line 6-10 spots: It's really more about how you play on defense. Chandler Jones could count for either linemen or linebacker, so it's a tough one to gauge. If a team plays the 4-3 defense (4 linemen) they will have a total closer to the 10. If a team plays 3-4, they obviously get by with less players here and more linebackers. The Patriots will use Jones and Ninkovich as hybrids, so I'll count them as linebackers. Expect 7 or so outside of those two.
Linebacker 5-8 spots: Really much of the description above explains why this position breaks down this way. If you have complete linebackers who can rush and cover, then you carry less. If you have linebackers who specialize in one thing or the other, you may end up with a few extra bodies here. Counting Ninkovich and Jones nothing less than 6 linebackers, and likely more.
Corner 5-7 spots: A really nice rule of thumb here is that you want to be able to cover everybody on the field, if each team carries around 6 receivers, then carrying around 6 corners makes all the sense in the world. Depth here is critical with the importance of the pass game. The Patriots will carry at least 5, but the breakdown of safety and corner is tricky, so I won't swear to that under oath.
Safety 3-5 spots: As alluded to above, corners can end up playing safety. So carrying a backup is good, but generally teams don't stack up at this spot (unless their special teams expert comes from this spot). The Patriots could max this out, or exceed it based on their unique roster needs this year.
Obviously it's all in flux team by team, and a lower end total in one category will result in a near max number of selections in another. Keeping these as guidelines as you anticipate the moves the team makes could make you look like a fortune teller to your friends. Make sure to check out my final roster projection tomorrow to see if I'm more reliable than Miss Cleo.
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