Would Bill Belichick ever trade Tom Brady? - PatriotsLife Roundtable
If you're having a tough time seeing Logan Mankins in another uniform, imagine the feeling of seeing Tom Brady in one.
That's what the PatriotsLife writers decided to discuss in this edition of the PatsLife roundtable. We've seen Belichick's ruthlessness many times over the years, but extending that to the face of the franchise is another thing entirely. Read our takes, and give your own in the comments!
Would Bill Belichick ever trade Tom Brady?
Paul Murphy (@_prmurphy)
The wheels are already in motion. It probably should have happened two years ago following the Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants. The same team that could use him then can still use him now.Yes, Bill Belichick would be unafraid to trade Tom Brady. You can say goodbye to number 12, and hello to number 10. The new team is the San Francisco 49ers. Their number 12 has been retired by the team in honor of HOF QB, John Brodie.
With Tom Brady’s contract status following the 2014 season needing to be restructured, the time is ripe to move him. Greg Bedard on Comcast with Mike Felger replied that “there is no zero chance that Tom Brady plays for $9 million next year. ZERO.”
Tom Brady to the San Francisco 49ers for QB Colin Kaepernick. Two years ago, the deal would have been QB Alex Smith, LB Patrick Willis and a first round pick. That would have required Smith to sign before being traded.
Even if the Patriots were to win the Super Bowl, it could still happen. The Patriots are getting closer to a college team with young players on short deals. With all the injuries and the focus on concussions, careers will be even shorter.
The great leaders never concern themselves with public opinion. When informed by Secretary of War Harold Stinson, that dropping atomic bombs over Japan would save 250,000-500,000 American lives, President Truman did not hesitate to act. While trying to get the country back on track in 1974, President Ford pardoned former President Nixon to heal the nation. While Patriots Commander in Chief, Bill Belichick did not serve in the military, he is quite familiar with their decision making process. The time Bill spent around the United States Naval Academy was a free education provided to him by the federal government, at no cost.
Don't think for a minute that he wouldn't trade Tom Brady. Bigger decisions have been made with larger consequences. There is no chance that Bill would be swayed by public opinion.
"Take a stand, and stand by it." He payed attention in history class.
Ned Brady (@therealnedbrady)
Consider this hypothetical scenario: the Patriots are entering the 2017 season. Both Tom Brady (who at this point will be turning 40 during training camp) and Jimmy Garoppolo are entering contract seasons. Brady is still very good, but the 25 year old Garoppolo has the coaching staff convinced that he's a quality NFL starter right now. With the draft approaching, a team that believes they're a quarterback away calls the front office offering up a kings ransom for Brady. It's an offer that could push an already well-stocked roster over the top.
This may sound like sacrilege, but the Pats would be stupid to not swing a deal in that scenario. Despite all Brady has meant to this franchise, it would make no sense to risk losing out on the next decade of quality play from Garappolo to hang on to the final few years of Brady's career.
Of course, it would take a special level of callousness to throw out all the sentiment that comes with a lengthy Hall of Fame career with one franchise in favor of such a strict, bottom-line driven approach. That's where Belichick, who's never been accused of being very warm and fuzzy, comes in. He's proven time and time again that he'll do what he thinks is the best move for his team, and he won't give a flying poo what the fans, players, media or anyone else thinks of it. He won't even care that it's Tom freaking Brady that he's trading if he thinks that's best decision long-term.
Of course, this doesn't mean a Brady trade is inevitable down the road. Just don't expect Belichick to suddenly go against his lengthy coaching history and become gun-shy if a Brady trade becomes a legitimate possibility down the road.
Andrew Ludwig (@aludwig25)
What is the right offer? Well there are too many variables to try and speculate what they may become. If Brady declines significantly over a short period of time he may lose his value and he will no longer have the trade value, but if he continues his elite status he could come with a hefty asking price.
Now the Patriots are not going to just trade him solely because he is at the end of his career. They would only even consider a deal if there was a reason to trade him. Enter Jimmy Garoppolo. A potential Brady trade relies heavily on his play. If he shows solid progression and impresses the coaching staff then yes, Brady could be in trade discussions, but if Garoppolo struggles, as Mallett has, then the Patriots will stick with Brady until a better replacement comes along.
So as hard as it is to believe the Patriots would trade Tom Brady, as they have proven time and time again that they will do whatever is necessary to make the team and organization better. Even if that is trading the heart of your team for the last fourteen years.
Liam Cunningham (@LC_NEP)
While his management as a coach and GM has made the Patriots a perennial contender, it is clear that these transactions rock the boat inside the locker room. The Mankins trade is no exception, as players, specifically Tom Brady, have reportedly been shaken up by his sudden departure.
I couldn't help but think if part of Brady's frustration may stem from the thought that he could be the next to fall victim to this recurring trend. Up until now, the thought of someday parting ways with Tom Brady was unfathomable. I am sure most Patriots fans cannot begin to wrap their heads around seeing him play elsewhere or having him leave the team before the end of his career for one reason or another.
Sadly, I think a juncture is approaching 2-3 years from now where Brady will be closing in on 40, with an expiring contract looming. Does Bill strike you as the type who is going to invest more money, and more years in a quarterback at such an advanced age? The thought of moving on from Brady is becoming more and more realistic with each crisp, strong pass off the hand of recent 2nd round draft pick Jimmy Garroppolo.
I may be getting a bit ahead of myself here. Jimmy G is yet to throw a regular season pass, and Brady has looked as good as ever so far this preseason. He will, almost certainly, play out the remainder of his contract as the Patriots quarterback, barring a major injury or steep decline in play.
The fairytale ending for Brady, Belichick and the Patriots is to win a Super Bowl(s) in that window, solidify themselves as the greatest QB/Coach tandem of all-time, and watch Brady ride off into the sunset of retirement without ever having to don another uniform.
But as Ned Brady laid out before, if the hypothetical scenario arose where Jimmy G was ready to be the guy, and a team was offering a gold-mine to the Patriots in a deal- If Bill thinks it is best for the team, he won't think twice about pulling the trigger. No matter who it is.
As scary as it sounds, not even Tom Brady is safe.
Jesse Gaunce (@JesseGaunce)
We thought it was impossible that the Celtics would trade Paul Pierce, or that the Red Sox would trade Nomar Garciaparra. Or how about the Bruins trading Ray Borque? My point is that this has happened with other major sports icons in Boston across the four major sports, and no one has done this more than the Patriots. Also, don't forget, the 49ers once traded Joe Montana, so there's that too.
The biggest question is what could the Patriots get back for Brady? Assuming Brady is still above average in the next couple of years, they would likely ask for an arm and a leg no matter what, and they should.
There's probably not one fan out there that wouldn't hate a trade of Brady from a sentimental and football standpoint no matter where the team stands in the next couple of years. If you were not to get upset by this, then you're just cold-blooded.
This conversation figures to be a few years off, but it's something to think about. There is no reason to believe Brady still won't be very effective in a couple years. But for the next couple of years, he isn't going anywhere.
Mike Saver (@MikeASaver)
However, I think with Tom Brady things will be different. Will Brady ever be traded like Brett Favre or have the Peyton Manning-Colts situation in New England? I believe the answer is NO.
Peyton Manning was 36 years old when he reached the crossorads with Indy and split for Denver. While that's still up there in age for a quarterback, he still (clearly) had plenty left in the tank to give him reason to want to continue playing. Tom Brady is already 37, clearly has plenty left in the tank, and is also still under contract through 2017. The Patriots cannot really cut him until he's 40 years old, and still they would take a $6 million hit. Of course, he takes a big paycut next year, so more restructuring is very likely.
Still, Tom Brady and Jimmy Garropolo's current deals both end on the same year, 2017. Meaning that there won't be an enormous amount of pressure for the Patriots to usher in the Jimmy G era (if all goes well on that front) by displacing Brady before his deal is up. Certainly, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers had a similar scenario, with Rodgers coming into the league as a backup to Favre for three years before he took the reins.
However, Rodgers was a first round pick and put a significant amount more strain on Green Bay's books. As a rookie he signed a five year deal worth $7.65 million. On top of that, he got a $1.5 million signing bonus, $620,000 roster bonus, plus another $3.01 million option bonus in his second year. That's a lot of money to pay a guy up front that you are going to keep on the bench in favor of your aging quarterback.
Financials played a big part in Peyton Manning's departure from the Colts as well. Manning was due a $28 million option bonus if the team did not cut him. Manning wasn't only older, but he was a big unknown. He was coming off of four neck surgeries. It's hard to logically keep him on the roster, when you are also holding the first overall pick and can take Andrew Luck for cheap with the new rookie salary scale. Luck signed a four year, $22.1 million deal with a $14.5 million signing bonus.
Jimmy Garappalo was a second round pick, and signed a four year deal worth $3,483,898. He receives the largest chunk of that money this season. So, there is little financial pressure on the Patriots to move on from Brady to Garappolo before the end of his deal, giving them some flexibilty.
Another element working in Brady's favor is - sentimentality.
Yes, that's right. The other major difference between Brady and the other recent QBs to have moved on is the relationships. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been together all of Brady's career, going on 15 years now. The greatest moments of Belichick's football career, and indeed the Patriots franchise, have been with Brady. Brady is the only member left on the team that was there for all three super bowl wins, and indeed, he played a huge part in all of them. While Bill might be able to part ways with defensive linemen or safeties or guards, Tom Brady is something different and something so much more significant to the franchise and, undoubtedly, to Belichick personally.
That's more than you can say, at least, than Favre and Manning. While both were darlings to those franchises, they did not have the same people calling the shots in the organization their whole careers. What they mean to the fans and the team names, acutally means very little, from that standpoint.
Ted Thompson, Green Bay's General Manager, had that job for three seasons before he said goodbye to Favre. His first pick as a GM of the Packers? Aaron Rodgers. Mike McCarthy had been Favre's head coach for two.
Peyton Manning's situation was a bit different. Bill Polian drafted Manning and had been with him from the start, but Polian was fired just before Manning was let go. It was Jim Irsay making the call with Peyton, and we all saw what he really thought of him come out in an interview last year.
USA Today:
"We've changed our model a little bit, because we wanted more than one of these," Irsay says, flicking up his right hand to show his Super Bowl XLI championship ring.
"(Tom) Brady never had consistent numbers, but he has three of these," Irsay adds. "Pittsburgh had two, the Giants had two, Baltimore had two and we had one. That leaves you frustrated.
"You make the playoffs 11 times, and you're out in the first round seven out of 11 times. You love to have the Star Wars numbers from Peyton and Marvin (Harrison) and Reggie (Wayne). Mostly, you love this."
Then Irsay flicks up his right hand again.
So, the financials, timing and pure nature of Brady's close relationship with Belichick and owner Robert Kraft are the reasons I believe Brady will not end up being traded, and will retire a Patriot. If he hits 40 years old, has declined significantly, but still demands that he wants to play, then perhaps the team will decide not to re-sign him and let him move on. However, while Brady may say he wants to play until 50 now, I don't believe that's realistic. Belichick will have little reason to trade Tom Brady, and if his play has gone down so drastically in a few years, it's likely he couldn't get very much for him anyway.
