Week 2 scouting report: Minnesota Vikings
 |
| Photo via Reuters/ Eric Miller |
Minnesota offense:
Most of Minnesota's offense is generated by only two playmakers, but Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson are two of the most explosive players in the entire league. Limiting their output will be easier said than done for a Patriots defense that struggled last week in Miami.
Against Peterson, the key is to gum up the line of scrimmage and gang-tackle him before he can get into the open field. It's a dangerous game counting on defensive backs or even linebackers to tackle him in space, and we all know he has the speed to take any play to the house. The inside zone plays that Miami ran with smashing success last week happen to be a staple of the Vikings offense as well, so the Patriots will have to do a much better job at defending against those cutback lanes.
Much of that is simple fundamentals, which have surely been drilled into the defense this week at practice. The defensive line did a poor job at the line of scrimmage, often getting driven off the line or easily moved out of their assigned gaps, while the linebackers often found themselves overrunning plays. The tackling was also very poor last week, and got worse as the game went on. Whether that was a fatigue issue in the Florida heat or not, it has to improve and in a hurry against Peterson.
While the Patriots defense played poorly last week, their scheme hardly helped them. They spent the vast majority of the game in a 3-4 front that simply doesn't suit their personnel. Asking 265 pound Chandler Jones to 2-gap as a 3-4 end will never make sense, and plugging holes against the run has never been the undersized Joe Vellano's strength either. Playing most of the game in the nickle didn't help matters, but the Patriots smaller personnel is much better suited to a 4-3, where they can use their quickness to penetrate gaps and attack the offense. It would be very surprising to see that much nickle usage against the run-heavy Vikings, but continuing to try to force square pegs into round holes scheme-wise will likely lead to more trouble.
 |
| Patterson is explosive in the open field. Bruce Kluckhohn/USA Today Sports |
Another thing to watch is the Vikings usage of Patterson as a runner. The Vikings will give him the occasional rushing attempt to further take advantage of his dangerous open-field ability. Last week, that worked to perfection, with Patterson turning three carries into 102 yards and a touchdown, largely due to 7 missed tackles. There's no doubt that being aware of where Patterson is on the field at all times will be a major key for the Patriots defense.
After those two, the talent level drops off a bit amongst Minny's skill position players. At 30 years old, Greg Jennings is no longer the type of threat he was earlier in his career as a Packer, but the veteran is still a solid complimentary option who can still hurt a defense. Another threat in the passing game is tight end Kyle Rudolph, whose Gronk-like size (6'6", 259) makes him a dangerous threat up the seam and in the red zone. Rudolph caught a TD last week and will be a tough matchup for a Pats D that doesn't really have anyone with the size to contest him on jump balls.
After that, there's simply not much here. Second tight end Rhett Ellison is mostly a blocker, and third receiver Jarius Wright has accomplished little to date in his NFL career.
The Vikings aren't going to ask quarterback Matt Cassell to do too much, which makes sense considering his relative lack of dynamic receiving options. Much like his 2008 season with the Patriots, Cassell will largely rely on safe, high-percentage short throws. It's a far cry from last week, when Mike Wallace's deep speed was constantly on the defense's mind.
As a result, this could be an ideal week to see more of the tight, press-man coverage everyone expected out of the Pats revamped secondary. Tight, physical coverage could disrupt the rhythm of those short passes, forcing Cassell to beat them with consistent precision down the field. Of course, a better showing from the Patriots pass rush could go a long way towards knocking Cassell out of his comfort zone, with Chandler Jones in particular needing to step it up against up and coming left tackle Matt Kalil.
Minnesota defense:
The biggest concern for this Patriots team right now is an offensive line that got absolutely steamrolled in Miami. They'll face another challenge this week in a solid Vikings line that got pressure while just rushing four last week against the Rams.
While the Vikings don't have any single pass rusher of Cameron Wake's caliber, they boast a solid, deep collection of productive defensive linemen. Everson Griffen got his new $42 million contract off to a good start, collecting two sacks against the Rams, while free agent DT Linval Joseph showed well against the run and pass. Veterans Brian Robinson and Corey Wootton have been productive in supporting roles, and rookie DE Scott Crichton has potential as a second round pick.
 |
| Barr brings athleticism to the Vikings D. Brace Hemelgarn/USA Today Sports |
Staying out of dangerous third and long situations could be key against this Vikings group. On obvious passing downs, the Vikings often move the speedy Barr to defensive end, while bumping one of Robinson or Griffen inside to create speed mismatches against opposing guards. It's a tough group to block, and one that could be extra troublesome given the Patriots continuing uncertainty at guard.
The solution to that could be to run right at them, particularly if 2013 first round DT Sharrif Floyd is unable to go with a shoulder injury that has kept him out of practice. Barr and fellow starting linebacker Jasper Brinkley can be overpowered against the run, and the Vikings depth at DT drops off significantly after starters Floyd and Joseph. The Pats didn't run particularly well last week, but they also did their offense no favors by abandoning the run early, allowing Miami's pass rushers to tee off on Tom Brady as the game went on. Establishing a power rushing game early on would be a boon for the offense, which put itself in bad situation after bad situation as the Dolphins game went on.
Then again, if the Pats can protect Brady, they could have success throwing against a questionable Vikings secondary. Safety Harrison Smith is a keeper, but beyond that there's a lot of question marks, especially with 2013 first round pick and top corner Xavier Rhodes is battling a groin injury. Even if he plays, he could be vulnerable, and the depth behind him at corner isn't great. Captain Munnerlyn parlayed a career year (bouyed by the league's best pass rush) in Carolina into a starting job here in Minnesota, but he isn't the type of corner quarterbacks are scared to go after. Josh Robinson is a decent slot cornerback, but at 5'10" he can be exploited by size mismatches.
As always the keys for the Patriots offense (beyond the obvious of protecting Brady) should be feeding their mismatch guys. Harrison Smith is a better option than most to cover Rob Gronkowski, but Gronk is a mismatch against everyone he faces. The same goes for Shane Vereen running routes against the likes of Anthony Barr. Julian Edelman can expect a healthy dose of targets every week, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Aaron Dobson activated and in the mix this week as well.
Special teams:
Once again, it's all about Cordarrelle Patterson, who may be the league's most dynamic kick returner. Patterson has free reign to return no matter how far into the end zone the kickoff takes him, so it will be essential for Stephen Gostkowski to boom his kickoffs all the way out of the back of the end zone.
The Pats special teams hardly covered themselves in glory last week, with a blocked punt setting up Miami's first touchdown of the day. Simply put, the Pats cannot afford to be giving up those kind of game-changing plays, especially against a team that already boasts two players capable of turning any routine play into a long touchdown.
Another factor to consider is the leg strength of Vikings placekicker Blair Walsh. Walsh has one of the strongest legs in the entire NFL, and the Vikings have no qualms about regularly sending him out there to convert field goals of 50 yards or more. Bend-but-don't-break is generally an effective defensive outlook, but it will result in 3 points far more often than normal against this kicker.
Other factors to watch:
- Can the Pats rebound? The Patriots second-half collapse last week against the Dolphins was easily amongst the worst displays of football the team has shown under Bill Belichick. The team is surely hungry to prove that performance was an aberration, and not indicative of any long-term problems, but doing so will be harder said than done against a Vikings squad whose strengths match-up well with the weaknesses the Dolphins exposed. How does this young Patriots team respond to that adversity?
- On the road again: Another challenge for this team will be following up the embarrassment of Week One with another game on the road. TCF Bank stadium hardly is the house of horrors that Miami's Sun Life Stadium has proven to be for the Patriots; in fact, the Patriots have never played a meaningful game at TCF. However, playing on the road is always more difficult than playing at home, and the crowd could be on the young Pats early if they get off to a sluggish start.
- Continuing the rotations? The Patriots rotated their players thoroughly during the Miami game, especially at several positions which are still up for grabs. While some of this was likely due to the heat and humidity, a lot of it stemmed from uncertainty on the offensive line and at the strong safety position. Unfortunately, Sunday's performance left far more questions than answers, so it will be interesting to see how the Pats adjust those rotations this week, if at all. Will Jordan Devey continue to get the bulk of the reps at right guard? Will Ryan Wendell continue to rotate in at center (if able to play through a knee injury)? Will Patrick Chung continue to get the majority of the strong safety reps, or will Logan Ryan's performance help him cut into those snaps? Stay tuned.
- 3-4, 4-3: I covered this earlier, but the Patriots decision to stick with a 3-4 look throughout the Miami game proved disastrous. They simply didn't have the personnel to effectively 2-gap, especially from the defensive end positions, and that inability to control the line of scrimmage cost them dearly against the run. We can only hope that the coaching staff recognizes this and starts putting the players in looks that better suit their skill-sets.
