Will the Patriots win the Super Bowl? Over/Under: 0.5
All year we speculate on player potential, who will get injured, how good the defense/offense is but really it all comes down to whether or not the Patriots will win the big one. It has been a few years since the Patriots made it to the Super Bowl, but they have been knocking on the door of destiny. In the past 13 AFC Championship games the Patriots have made eight appearances and they are looking for their ninth appearance this year. As of this writing VegasInsider.com has the Patriots odds of winning the Super Bowl at 8/1. They have the third best odds behind only the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, both have 6/1 odds of winning it all.
Why they will win Super Bowl
The Pats have put themselves in prime position to win the Super Bowl for the past three years and in my opinion this team is better than any of those teams. They have upgraded their defensive secondary with Revis and Browner who will help the Pats cover some talented receivers they will play this year including Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, and Brandon Marshall.
Wilfork is back and is now joined by the Patriots first round pick Dominique Easley. Easley was not much of a factor on Sunday, but that might have been more of a scheme issue than lack of talent. What has me excited about the former Gator is what Mike Reiss had to say about Easley's impact.
The offense seemed to struggle last year with a multitude of injuries. Dobson, Vereen, Amendola, and Gronkowski were all out at some point last year. But now all of those guys are ready to start and the Pats added Brandon Lafell to the wide receiver roster.
Brady is a bit old for a starting quarterback but Manning was older last year and broke Brady's single season touchdown record. Brady also hasn't shown his age as he looked really solid in preseason. He played so well during the Washington practices the Belichick didn't even start Brady in the actual game.
The only serious roadblock to the Patriots path to the Super Bowl is the Denver Broncos. Denver added Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib in free agency and Manning looked great in their season opener against the Colts. Though the Patriots were only one regular season win from hosting the Broncos in the AFC championship game. A home field advantage could have given the Patriots an edge. With an improved secondary this year I think the Patriots will be the better team.
Why they won't win the Super Bowl
Yes, on paper the Patriots seem like they could be great but a few things to consider. First, Gronkowski and Wilfork are both coming off season ending injuries and there is no guarantee that either of them will be back to their old selves. Second, last year the Pats went against two teams in their division who were starting rookie QBs (and the Bills threw in a backup when Manuel got injured) and now both Geno and EJ have another year under their belt. Third, even if the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl there is a good chance they will face a Seattle team that just embarrassed Aaron Rodgers on their Thursday night opener.
Last Sunday we saw a poor performance in the trenches for the Pats. The Patriots offensive line looked putrid against the run, allowing Knowshon Moreno to gain over 100 yards on the ground and Cameron Wake was in the back field far too quickly. If they want to be raising the Lombardi trophy in Arizona they will need to give Brady more time in the pocket.
Prediction
In the past two years I have made the same prediction, if Brady, Gronk and Talib were healthy they would win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately Gronk continuously got injured and Talib got knocked out in both AFC championship games. Now that Brady has more legitmate weapons and the Pats have replaced Talib with Revis and Browner I think they could fare well. I believe this is one of the best Patriots teams we have seen in years and will blow out opponents rather than last year where it seemed like every game was determined in the last two minutes of the game. Patriots players this year should not be asking themselves "Why not us?", they should be stating "It will be us".
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