Week 5 scouting report: Cincinnati Bengals
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| Bernard is one of several explosive threats on the Bengals offense. Andrew Weber/USA Today Sports |
Cincinnati offense:
The biggest names on Cinci's offense may be AJ Green and Andy Dalton, but this is an offense built around the running game. Under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals have lead the league with 34 rushing attempts per game.
It's easy to see why, as the Bengals boast one of the most exciting backfield duos in the league. Last year's second round pick, Giovani Bernard, has already proven to be an electric playmaker in the open field. This year, he's joined by another second round pick, LSU's Jeremy Hill, who at 6'2" and 236 pounds is a powerful bowling ball of a back when running downhill.
Bernard is unquestionably the "lead" back for now, outtouching Hill 67 to 28 over the first few games, but Hill has actually been more effective on the ground. While the tackle-breaking rookie has turned his 26 carries into 132 yards and 2 touchdowns (5.1 yards per carry), Bernard has struggled a little bit to get going. He's only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 61.7 rushing yards per game, and has struggled to make the big, home-run plays that defined his rookie season. So far, Bernard's longest run of the season is only 16 yards.
However, it's only a matter of time before the shifty Bernard breaks a big play on the ground, and he's picked up where he left off as a rookie in the passing game. Through three games, Bernard has 12 catches for 148 yards, good for just under 50 yards a game. The Bengals look to get Bernard heavily involved in the passing game via screens and short, dump-off passes, and as a result it's actually Bernard, not Green, who leads the team in pass targets with 19.
The "thunder and lightning" combination of Hill and Bernard is somewhat similar to the Knile Davis/Jamaal Charles backfield that had their way with the Pats defense last week. The Pats will need to bring a much better tackling effort this week, as both Cincinnati backs can be hard to bring down. They'll also need to do a much better job of setting the edge of the defense, as allowing Bernard to turn the corner and reach the second level is a recipe for disaster. Chandler Jones in particular was repeatedly targeted in the running game by the Chiefs on Monday night, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Bengals do the same thing to test the star defensive end.
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| Whitworth is as steady as they come at left tackle. Photo via Bengals.com |
The one weak spot on the line has been center Russell Bodine. A rookie fourth round pick from UNC, Bodine beat out veteran Pollak for the starting job in training camp, but has struggled since the live bullets began flying. With three hurries surrendered, Bodine has given up nearly half of opponents pressure by himself, and his -3.5 run blocking grade from ProFootballFocus make him the only starter with a negative grade in that department. Whether it's with Vince Wilfork in the running game or Dominique Easley as a pass rusher, the Patriots need to attack Bodine on Sunday night.
However, the rest of the Bengals line is strong enough to excel despite Bodine's struggles, and they could make it a long night for a mediocre group of Patriots pass rushers. Chandler Jones has flashed as a pass rusher, but faces by far his toughest matchup so far this year in Whitworth. He'll have to bring a much better effort than he did last week, when previously struggling youngster Eric Fisher largely handled him. However, that could be a tall order, considering Jones is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. The rest of the Patriots pass rushers have struggled to generate pressure, as Rob Ninkovich and Dominique Easley have just six hurries, three QB hits and one sack to show for their combined 187 snaps rushing the passer.
Something which has benefited both the offensive line and quarterback Andy Dalton has been Hue Jackson's emphasis on a quick-striking passing attack. Dalton has been getting rid of the ball in a blistering average of 2.05 seconds, a figure that leads the league. Per Ross Miles of PFF, 81.4% of his passes have come in under 2.5 seconds.
Getting rid of the ball quickly has helped Dalton eliminate the back-breaking turnovers that have overshadowed his strong statistical performance and win-loss record as a starter. The book on Dalton has always been that pressure throws him off and leads to turnovers, but the quarterback has faced pressure on only 13 of his 86 dropbacks this year.
Getting pressure on Dalton could be key for the defense (it's unsurprising that Dalton's lone interception came under pressure), but the combination of his stout offensive line and quick release make that much easier said than done. It also puts the Pats defense in a bit of a conundrum. They've struggled to get pressure all year when rushing four, and I've been far from the only advocate for opening up the playbook and letting the linebackers blitz more. However, Dalton has killed the blitz so far this year, completing 20 of his 31 passes for 401 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Will the Patriots play with fire (pun intended) and send more rushers to force Dalton into mistakes?
Despite the quick throws, which usually dictate a short, conservative passing game, Dalton is averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per passing attempt. That's probably because of the deep ball, which remains a major complementary threat to the runs, screens and short passes that make up the bulk of the Bengals offense. AJ Green, Mohammed Sanu and Brandon Tate all have a play of 50 yards or more through three weeks. This week was circled for the anticipated return of last year's #2 receiver Marvin Jones, a major red zone threat who has missed the start of the season rehabbing from a broken foot, but an ankle injury will likely keep Jones out for another week. That leaves Green and Sanu as a big, explosive starting duo, with former Patriot Tate filling in as the third receiver.
It's unclear how many snaps the Pats will play Brandon Browner, who is unlikely to be in top "football shape" after missing the first four games of the season with a suspension, but they could certainly use his size and physicality this week. At 6'2" and 210 pounds, Sanu is a physical specimen, and Browner presents better size to matchup with him than Logan Ryan or Kyle Arrington.
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| Green's elite playmaking ability warrants a trip to Revis Island |
One break the Pats have this week is the absence of tight end Tyler Eifert, who is on the IR-designated for return list with a dislocated elbow. The Bengals planned to use a two tight end attack to create mismatches all over the field this year, but Eifert's week one injury has put those plans on hold. Without the athletic pass catcher, the Bengals are down to Jermaine Gresham, who has the indignity of being the one first round tight end from the draft that produced Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Dennis Pitta and Aaron Hernandez, and an uninspiring group of blocking types. Gresham has developed into a solid blocker but has never progressed beyond mediocre as a pass catcher. Given the Pats struggles covering Travis Kelce last week, missing out on Eifert is certainly a bullet dodged.
Cincinnati defense:
If you remember last season's 13-6 loss to these Bengals, you remember the dominant performance of their suffocating defensive line. That defensive line is still (on paper) the strength of the defense, even after losing end Michael Johnson to free agency, and they haven't really even hit their stride yet.
DE Carlos Dunlap has received plenty of attention due to his team-leading three sacks, but teammate Wallace Gilberry might be playing better. Gilberry, who played well against the Patriots last year, has racked up 10 hurries already to go with his two sacks and a QB hit. Playing on the right side of the Bengals line, he figures to be matched up with Nate Solder, who desperately needs a bounce back week after an awful first quarter of the season. Robert Geathers has also gotten plenty of snaps as a third defensive end, while Margus Hunt continues to slowly work his way into the rotation.
Despite those big names and the sack production from the starters, the Bengals have not been a great pass rushing team. In fact, per Ben Alamar of ESPN stats and info, they've only pressured the quarterback on 20.5% of dropbacks, a mark that ranks 25th in the league.
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| Atkins made a big impact last year against the Pats. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images |
The real strength of Cincinnati's defense through three weeks has been their secondary. 36 year old Terence Newman seems to have found the fountain of youth in Cinci, as he pairs with Leon Hall to form an excellent starting duo on the outside, while Reggie Nelson pairs with surprising breakthrough star George Iloka to form an equally impressive starting duo at safety. The four starters have a combined +9.5 coverage grade on the year from PFF.
If there's a weak spot to pinpoint, it's third corner Adam "Pacman" Jones. Opposing quarterbacks are completing a whopping 76.5% of their throws into Pacman's coverage, good for 201 yards (15 yard per catch) and an 80 yard touchdown. Jones has given up a completion of at least 24 yards in all three of the Bengals games so far. Behind Jones are two first round picks, Dre Kirkpatrick and Alfonzo Dennard's cousin Darqueze, neither of whom haven't seen the field much so far this year.
Of course, going after Pacman will require pass protection, which could be a nightmare against Cincinnati's dangerous front. New defensive coordinator Paul Geunther has continued with many of the concepts favored by his predecessor, Mike Zimmer, including a fondness for unpredictable blitz packages. Tom Brady will have to keep a lookout for secondary blitzes, as Geunther has let both Nelson (25 rushes, 8 total pressures, 2 sacks) and Leon Hall (2 pressures on 8 rushes) get into the act from the secondary. He's also not shy about bringing the linebackers, as Vincent Rey and Emmanuel Lamur have combined for 51 rushes in three games.
The Pats offensive game plan in Kansas City has come under fire for a lack of balance, but one encouraging sign from the game was that they were successful when they did commit to running the ball, averaging a solid 4.7 yards a pop. The spread-heavy game plan likely had something to do with this, as it forced the Chiefs to play lighter nickel fronts that the Pats were able to run on.
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| The Bengals will miss the playmaking Burfict. Justin K. Allen/ Getty Images |
If the Patriots can get the run game going, it will open up more ways to give a spark to the struggling pass offense. Running the ball effectively will coincide with more effective play action passing, which could buy an extra second or two for the receivers to get open down the field. This could help Brady get some of his secondary targets like Tim Wright or (if he's active) Aaron Dobson involved in the passing game, which would add new dimensions of the offense for opponents to deal with.
Of course, running a lot of shotgun and spread formations runs the risk of taking players away from the line, where they could help in pass protection. Dunlap and Gilberry aren't quite the Hali/Houston duo that terrorized the offense on Monday night, but they are certainly good enough to be a real problem if Solder and Vollmer have another poor performance. I wouldn't be surprised if the game play involves plenty of chipping from the backs and tight ends, helping to slow the pass rush down while not eliminating them as potential dump-off targets for Brady.
Special teams:
Special teams have been a strength for both teams so far. Pacman Jones is still a threat as a punt returner, while Tate has been solid returning kicks. Stephen Gotskowski has been excellent at producing return-eliminating touchbacks so far this season, and will look to continue that trend against Tate, while punter Ryan Allen's hangtime has allowed standout gunner Matthew Slater to deliver some crushing blows on opposing punt returners.
The Bengals coverage units have been stingy against punt returns, allowing an average of just 2.5 yards a return so far this season. They'll face a significant challenge this week in Julian Edelman, who remains one of the league's best. However, the Bengals have been less stingy covering kickoffs, which could give Patrick Chung a chance to break a big play.
Other factors to watch:
Come out swinging
The Pats dismal performance last week had many in the national media writing their obituary. The offensive line is statistically amongst the worst in football. The defense, supposedly the strength of the team, was shredded to bits in Kansas City by a middle-of-the-pack offense. The coaching staff is under fire for questionable decisions, both on game day and in the personnel department. Tom Brady is facing serious questions about his football mortality.
If what happened Monday night (and the subsequent fallout this week) doesn't piss this team off, nothing will. For all the negativity in the New England air right now, this team has veteran leaders that know everything will change with a strong performance on National TV. Win or lose, it's on the team to show the urgency and fire they've talked about all week. They need to be fired up, focused and engaged on every snap if they're going to beat a team of this caliber. Look for them to make a statement with their play early in the game that they won't be pushed around by these Bengals. If not, it could be another long night.
Defend our house
Death, taxes and Patriot victories at Gillette Stadium have been the three constants in New England life since Tom Brady took over at quarterback. You have to go back to 2012 to find the Pats last regular season home loss (a comeback fell short against San Francisco), and allllll the way back to 2008 to find a regular season home loss to an AFC foe. Yes, the last time the Pats lost to an AFC team at home in the regular season, Matt Cassell was the starting quarterback.
Of course, that history of dominant play at home was built by much stronger teams than the one that has been out there for the first four weeks of this season. So far, the 2014 Patriots have only played once at home, and they barely managed to squeek out a win against the hapless Raiders. Past success really has no logical correspondence to future performance.
However, the Pats history of home dominance is something to be proud of, and extending that AFC winning streak (currently at 38 games) should be extra motivation for this team. Gillette Stadium might not be as loud as the players would like, but it has been a safe haven for this team for a long time. Look for the team, especially it's veteran leadership, to focus on defending their house on Sunday Night.
The "underdog" mentality
The Pats find themselves in an unfamiliar position this week: underdogs. With the Bengals currently favorited by 1, it marks one of the few times the Pats can pull out Rodney Harrison's patented "Nobody said we could do it" and mean it.
That should be another motivation for this team to go out and play well on Sunday. Few things are more galvanizing for a locker room than perceived disrespect, and the Vegas line is just one of many "slights" the Pats have taken this week after their Kansas City beatdown.
Bottom line, the Patriots have every reason to come out on fire and make a statement that their run of dominance isn't over until they say it is. If they repeat last weeks passion-less performance, it's a sign of real problems in the locker room, the kind of problems that threaten to submarine an entire season.
