Week 6 Scouting Report: Buffalo Bills
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| If Orton can give the passing game a boost, this Bills team could be very dangerous. Getty Images |
Buffalo Offense
So far, the Bills success has come in spite of their offense. In fact, the offense has been amongst the league's worst, with their 19.2 points per game ranking 28th in the league. The struggles of the offense led the team to bench starting quarterback and 2013 first round pick EJ Manuel, just 14 starts into his pro career, in favor of veteran Kyle Orton and his immortal neckbeard. The Bills got a win in Orton's first start last week against Detroit, but the offense failed to score 20 for the third straight game.
Orton actually played pretty well in the Detroit game when given time to throw. While under no pressure, Orton completed 21 of his 26 attempts, good for a blistering 80.8% completion percentage and 206 yards (7.9 yards per attempt). However, the veteran wilted in the face of pressure. When under pressured, that completion percentage dropped all the way to 50% (8 of 16), with his yards per attempt dropping almost two full yards to 6.3.
Orton was certainly an upgrade over the innacurate, gunshy Manuel, but the Bills' offensive struggles against Detroit highlighted just how one-dimensional this offense has been. The Lions vaunted defensive front was able to shut down Buffalo's running game, holding them to a paltry 49 yards on 22 attempts, and the Bills offense struggled to put points on the board. Simply put, Buffalo's passing game so far hasn't been good enough to carry the offense if the dynamic duo of CJ Spiller and the seemingly ageless Fred Jackson can't get it done.
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| Spiller is an explosive, versatile threat |
However, Buffalo's running game has really slowed down in recent weeks, thanks largely to poor play from the offensive line. After rushing for 306 yards during in their 2-0 start, they've averaged merely 77.3 yards per game in the past three games. Left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood remain solid players, but the rest of the line has sturggled all year. A back injury to guard Chris Williams means that rookie Cyril Richardson will likely see his third consecutive start at left guard. That's not a good thing for Buffalo, as he allowed 7 combined hurries, hits and sacks while getting called for four penalties and amassing a dismal -7.8 run blocking grade from PFF in his first two games. Fellow rookie Seantrel Henderson has started from the get-go at right tackle, where he's allowed 16 combined hurries, hits and sacks and gotten a -8.3 run blocking grade. At least those two have the excuse of being rookies, which is more than nine year veteran Erik Pears can say (13 combined hurries/hits/sacks, -13.1 run blocking grade).
Buffalo's struggling line could be just what the doctor ordered for a Pats team that comes into this week pretty banged up on the defensive line. With Sealver Siliga still out and both Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley nursing shoulder injuries, the Pats are starting to run out of healthy bodies, especially at defensive end. This will likely mean a heavy burden on the remaining healthy player's in the rotation (Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Chris Jones), and it could potentially open up the possibility of sixth round rookie Zach Moore getting a chance to see the field.
If Orton gets time, he does have some weapons in passing game. The number one receiver is obviously Sammy Watkins, and the fourth overall pick from this spring has looked the part so far, including a highlight reel circus catch that helped set up the game winning field goal last week. Behind Williams are two talented but inconsistent targets in Robert Woods and Mike Williams, with speedster Marquice Goodwin essentially squeezed out of the rotation. Tight end Scott Chandler isn't much of a dynamic downfield threat, but he's a big target with good hands in the red zone who has hurt the Pats in the past.
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| Watkins is a star in the making. Kevin Hoffman/USA Today Sports |
However, Browner is just one of the many injuries that have piled up recently on the Patriots defense. Listed as questionable alongside Browner on the injury report are linebackers Jamie Collins (thigh) and Dont'a Hightower (knee) and defensive lineman Dominique Easley (shoulder/knee). The Patriots lack experienced depth at linebacker, and could be forced to turn to the likes of Deontae Skinner or Ja'Gared Davis if one or both of the starters are unable to go. Easley was clearly less than 100% even before separating his A/C joint last week, but losing him would make it harder for the Pats to protect Chandler Jones' injured shoulder, which had him relegated to a situational role last week.
If available, Jamie Collins should have the speed to effectively cover the lumbering Chandler, and he could certainly use a confidence boost after nearly getting beat for two big plays in the Cincinnati game (dropped touchdown by Gresham, open wheel route by Bernard). If Collins isn't available, Pats fans should start getting nervous, as visions of Deontae Skinner repeatedly trailing Kyle Rudolph back in Week 2 dance ominously in their heads.
It's hard to predict how the Pats will approach this game defensively, but this is a week I'd advise towards mixing things up, bringing a few blitzes, and trying to help generate pressure and disruption on Orton. The weakness of the Bills offense is it's offensive line, and an aggressive, unpredictable defensive game plan could overwhelm that line while increasing the odds of Orton turning it over. The one caveat to that strategy is the Bills effective use of screen passes, which are often the perfect counter to the blitz, and something the defense will have to be alert for at all times.
Buffalo defense
Fortunately for the #billsmafia faithful, the defense has been up to the task of carrying this team through the early portion of the season. Through five games, they've allowed a stingy 17.8 points per game, fourth fewest in the league. This all stems from a defensive line that's in the conversation for best in the game. They've been impenetrable against the run, holding opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry and 71 yards per game, both figures that rank second in the league. They join Seattle as the only defenses to not allow a run of 20 or more yards this season.
This starts with a monstrous pair of disruptive defensive tackles, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Patriots fans should be well acquainted with Williams by now, as he's been a three-time Pro Bowler and a constant pain in the ass for the Pats since being drafted by the Bills in 2006. Williams already had racked up 17 combined hurries, hits and sacks before injuring his knee in Week 4's loss to the Texans, and also provided his usual stout play against the run. He's officially listed as questionable, but he's expected to play after returning to practice this week from a Week 4 knee injury.
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| Dareus has become a beast up front. Tim Ludwig/USA Today Sports |
The defensive end tandem of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes is impressive as well. Williams has been a beast against the run, registering 12 defensive stops, a +5.8 run defense grade from ProFootballFocus. He's also brought the heat as a pass rusher to the tune of 13 combined hurries, hits and sacks. Hughes is a pure speed rusher whose 19 combined hurries/hits/sacks leads the team. His pure speed could make him a problematic matchup against Nate Solder, who has his struggles at times with speed.
It's a bad time for the Pats to be facing this group of monsters. Last week's solid showing doesn't erase an entire month of unacceptable offensive line play, and the Pats could find themselves forced to reshuffle their line once again due to a concussion to rookie center Bryan Stork. If Stork doesn't pass the concussion protocol in time to get medically cleared, the Pats will be forced to move Ryan Wendell back to center, opening up a hole at right guard that will have to be filled by either Jordan Devey, Marcus Cannon or Josh Kline. The thought of any of those three dealing with either Dareus or Williams all game should be terrifying to Pats fans, and it's a very legitimate possibility at the moment.
Needless to say, establishing and sticking with the run game might be easier said than done come Sunday. If I'm the Patriots, I take note of what worked Sunday against the Bengals, and try to get the running game going against the nickel. Spreading Buffalo out and creating that numbers advantage in the box can only help to get the rushing attack going. They also might want to consider targeting the left side, where 254 defensive end Jerry Hughes is a weak run defender.
If linebacker Nigel Bradham is unable to go with a knee injury, the Bills nickel defense could have a major weakness: Brandon Spikes in coverage. Patriots fans are well aware of Spikes limitations in coverage, and the Bills were largely taking Spikes off the field on third downs before Bradham's injury forced the former Patriot into an every down role. I expect Tom Brady to be licking his chops at the prospect of having Spikes to target in coverage. Both Spikes and Bradham are listed as questionable, but I'll be shocked if Spikes lets a rib injury keep him out of his debut against his former team. Bradham returned to practice this week, and is expected to be a game time decision.
If Bradham can't go, Preston Brown will likely see an expanded role again. A third round pick this year from Louisville, Brown surprisingly leads the team with 15 defensive stops for the year (according to ProfootballFocus), and has taken advantage of injuries to Bradham and Keith Rivers to play plenty of snaps in the early going of the season. None of the Bills linebackers have come close to replacing the injured Kiko Alonso's range in coverage, and Rivers has particularly gotten picked on in coverage.
The Bills have compensated for their lack of coverage linebackers with excellent safety play from the duo of Aaron Williams and Da'Norris Searcy so far this year. Both are questionable this week, with a wrist (Williams) and knee injury (Searcy). Even if both suit up, they'll likely have a handful with the combination of Gronkowski and Tim Wright. The combination of those two creates by far the most mismatches for the offense and must be utilized more as the season goes on.
The Pats could also have some decent matchups on the outside, where the Bills corners have struggled. Leodis McKelvin has 2 interceptions already, but opposing quarterbacks are 22-30 when targeting him, with a healthy 13.5 yards per completion. He's joined in the starting lineup by 2012 tenth overall pick Stephon Gilmore, who has given up 15 catches on 18 targets for 170 yards, with three touchdowns and a pick to boot. Appropriately named nickel back Nickell Robey has been picked on as well, with quarterbacks completing 82.4% against him (14-17, 225 yards).
Of course, taking advantage of those matchups in coverage is contingent on the offensive line protecting Brady, which could get real iffy in a hurry if Stork is forced out and Devey/Cannon in. I expect the Pats to try to use a lot of quick hitting throws and screens to counter the Bills pass rush. However, if Buffalo is able to shut down New England's running game and make them one-dimensional, it could turn into a very difficult day for the offense. Protecting Brady takes on extra importance this week, as Brady's balky ankle will limit his already limited mobility.
Special teams
The Patriots special teams have been solid for the most part this year, and they'll have to continue to be against these Bills. The primary threat comes from Spiller, who is as dangerous as ever returning kicks. Spiller has already run one back 103 yards to the house this year, and the onus will be on Stephen Gostkowski to limit his opportunities by booting the ball through the back of the end zone for touchbacks.
The Bills punt returner is still Leodis McKelvin, who has been unspectacular in that role this year. Their kick and punt coverage teams have been solid, as have the Patriots. Given the presence of Julian Edelman as a dangerous return threat on punts, this is pretty much an even matchup, and a critical mistake or swing in field position could be enough to swing what projects to be a low-scoring affair.
Other factors to watch
On the road again
One of the Patriots dirty little secrets is that they've recently been an average road team. They're 1-2 on the road so far, including to humiliating performances in Miami and Kansas City, and were a mediocre 4-4 on the road last year.
They'll have to overcome whatever has ailed them on the road recently this week, because Ralph Wilson Stadium should be rocking. The ever loyal Bills fanbase is naturally ecstatic over the sale of the franchise to billionaire Terry Pegula, as the move likely guarantees the team will stay rooted in Buffalo. Furthermore, the team is young and talented, tied for first place in their division, and has a chance to knock off a recently struggling rival who has absolutely owned them in the past. This will be a tough environment to play in Sunday, and how this young Patriots team handles adversity early on will go a long way towards how they ultimately fare in the game.
History of dominance
There are a lot of pure football reasons to like the Bills this week, but consider the Pats history against the Bills under Brady before getting tempted to pick the upset. In his career, Tom Brady is 22-2 against the Buffalo Bills, and his 54 career touchdown passes against them is his most versus any opponent. Pegula might have bought them, but it's really Tom Brady who owns the Bills.
Brady has owned the Bills in the win-loss column, but there have been plenty of tougher than expected games in that span. In this case, the Bills look like a potential threat to win the division, and their strengths happen to matchup with the Patriots biggest weakness. If the Patriots can protect Brady against the Bills line, I fully expect the quarterback to exploit some weak links in coverage and move the ball. If not, we'll likely be in for a tough-to-watch, low-scoring affair.
First place on the line
The Patriots convincing win over Cincinnati last week was unquestionably impressive, but one has to admit the extra emotional "oomph" behind the performance was noticeable. That was an angry Patriots team lead by an angry Brady, and there was no way they were going to let inconsistent focus or a lack of physicality cost them that game.
The Pats-related panic found throughout New England has drastically gone down since the Bengals game, and with it has gone that extra motivation from the media and fan second-guessing. However, the Patriots have a much more important and tangible goal to play for this week: first place in the division. Both teams come into this showdown at 3-2, and the winner will take an early lead in the standings. Losing a game with a division lead on the line to a team you've historically owned is pretty embarassing, and should be plenty of motivation for the Pats to come out on fire again, rather than the flat road performance we saw in Kansas City.
