Week 7 scouting report: New York Jets
 |
| Could this be Rex Ryan's last appearance in Foxborough as a head coach? Joel Auerbach/Getty Images |
New York offense
Let's not mince words; it's been ugly. The Jets come into this game ranked 30th in the league in both yards (303.3) and points (16) per game. They've also turned the ball over 10 times, only Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta and Jacksonville have coughed it over more.
It's easy to point the finger at quarterback Geno Smith for the team's offensive struggles. The offseason additions of playmakers like Eric Decker, Chris Johnson and Jace Amaro were supposed to buoy a second-year breakthrough from the quarterback, especially after a promising finish to an otherwise difficult rookie year. Instead, Smith has continued to struggle. He has 5 fumbles and 7 interceptions in 5 and a half games, is completing only 57.1% of his passes, and has averaged merely 6 yards per attempt.
 |
| Smith has struggled this year. Getty Images |
As bad as the quarterback play has been, neither Geno nor Vick have had much help. The offensive line, once the strength of the Jets offense, has fallen into decay. Nick Mangold remains a stud at center, but the rest of the line has struggled all year. Tackles D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Breno Giacomini have each given up 17 total pressures (combined sacks, hits and hurries), and guard Willie Colon has struggled to generate movement in the running game. They'll also be replacing starting guard Brian Winters, who was placed on season-ending IR after last Sunday's game, with 2013 fifth round pick Oday Aboushi.
Eric Decker was the Jets biggest free agent addition, but he's been hampered by a hamstring injury so far this season. He's still managed to lead the team in receiving touchdowns (3) and yards (258) and the talent disparity between him and the rest of the Jets receivers is steep enough to justify a visit to Revis Island. If his performance against Richard Sherman in the Super Bowl is any indication, Decker should be no match for Revis's blanket coverage.
The Jets other receivers consist of solid if unspectacular slot receiver Jeremy Kerley and unremarkable possession receiver David Nelson. Neither should pose a major threat to the Patriots secondary, although Alfonzo Dennard is coming off of a tough game against Buffalo's Robert Woods and needs to bounce back.
Many Patriots fans were clamoring for eventual Jets second round pick Jace Amaro back in the spring, and the rookie tight end leads the team in receptions so far with 24. Amaro has been the Jets most efficient passing option, catching 82.8% of his targets, but most of those have been of the dink and dunk variety, as evidenced by his only averaging 8.8 yards per catch. Amaro does bring plus athleticism to the position, and the Jets move him around the formation quite a bit to try to create mismatches. The Patriots will have to be aware of him at all times.
Amaro is technically the backup tight end, as Jeff Cumberland has played double his snaps as a traditional, in-line tight end. Cumberland is athletic enough to make plays down the seam, but he's never fully realized his talent, partly due to inconsistent hands.
 |
| Ivory has run like a man possessed this year. Robert Deutsch/USA Today |
His partner in the backfield, Chris Johnson, hasn't gotten off to the same strong start. Johnson still has the speed that made him a dynamic offensive threat in his Tennessee heyday, but the Jets offensive line hasn't given him enough space to really get going. So far, he's averaged an unremarkable 3.9 yards per carry, with a long of 35 yards. However, he still has the speed to quickly turn a missed assignment into a game-changing big play, and the Pats will have to be aware of that as well tonight.
Given the expected weather conditions, the Pats can expect a healthy dosage of Ivory and Johnson early on. If their run defense can build on a good performance Sunday in Buffalo and shut them down, it could make things very difficult for an already challenged Jets offense.
New York defense
When you think of the New York Jets, tough defense is probably one of the first things that come to mind. The Jets have always had stingy defenses under Rex Ryan, with some of Tom Brady's roughest games coming at the hands of Rex's unpredictable, aggressive game plans.
This year, that reputation is only half true. The Jets still have a monstrous defensive line, which has buoyed a run defense that ranks amongst the league's best. However, they actually rank 25th in the league in scoring defense, as a porous secondary has contributed to their allowing 26.3 points per game.
 |
| Richardson sacking Brady back in 2013. Photo via Newyorkjets.com |
Even when healthy, the Patriots offensive line would be unlikely to line up and simply overpower that group up front. Abandoning the run will be inadvisable, especially considering the weather conditions, so look for the Pats to use their scheme to try to create better situations for their linemen. Instead of asking the likes of Jordan Devey and Josh Kline to overpower the Jets, expect the Pats to use a lot of reach blocks, using angles to seal off defenders rather than driving them off the ball.
The Pats run game has had most of it's success this year against lighter, nickel defenses. I'd expect the Pats to continue to use their personnel to force the Jets into nickel looks that are more vulnerable to the run. Having a pair of receiving threats like Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright should help matters in that regard, as would spreading the field with multiple receivers.
If the Pats can protect Brady and the weather isn't too out of control, the passing game could be effective. The Jets secondary was already bad, and now have lost top corner Dee Milliner for the season with an Achilles injury. As a result, the Jets will likely start veteran journeymen Darrin Walls and Phillip Adams at corner, with former first round bust Kyle Wilson and converted safety Antonio Allen also options at the position. None of them have played particularly well, and receivers like Julian Edelman, Brandon LeFell and Tim Wright could have favorable matchups throughout the night.
The Jets are bit better at safety, where veteran Dawan Landry and rookie Calvin Pryor form a solid duo. Landry is solid both in coverage and run support, while first round pick Pryor is a big hitter who provides a notable physical presence in the box. Pryor has a lot of ability, but his inexperience and aggressiveness can be taken advantage of with play action and other forms of misdirection.
Of course, protecting Brady could be easier said than done, especially if the Jets run defense is able to make the Pats offense one-dimensional. In addition to their dynamic inside duo of Richardson and Wilkerson, the Jets have a solid pair of edge rushers in outside linebackers Calvin Pace and Quinton Coples. Pace's three sacks tie Richardson for second on the team, but Coples has actually brought more pressure overall, with 20 combined sacks, hits and hurries. Offseason addition Jason Babin has also quietly been effective as a situational pass rusher, racking up 13 total pressures in his 71 pass rushing snaps.
Matching up with the Jets up front physically is enough of a challenge, but the Jets provide a mental challenge as well with the sheer number of looks they provide an offense. Rex Ryan is well-known as a blitz-happy coach, and pressure can always come from any number of positions. Inside linebackers David Harris and Demario Davis are both big, fast and physical, and they can do some damage as blitzers. Rex is also unafraid to gamble with blitzes from the secondary, and Landry, Pryor and Wilson all have double digit pass rushing snaps already.
Special teams
The Jets have generally had good special teams under Rex Ryan, and their coverage units have been solid this year. Opponents have only averaged a modest 20.4 yards per kickoff return and 7.4 yards per punt return.
On the other hand, the Jets haven't generated much field position-wise in their own return game. Primary kick returner Saalim Hakim has averaged 22.1 yards a return, and the Jets as a team have averaged only 4.2 yards per punt return.
Special teams could take on added importance tonight due to the weather conditions. If the game is close, a sudden field position shift or turnover on special teams could prove to be a difference maker. Holding on to the wet football will certainly be key, and the Pats will be happy to turn to sure handed Julian Edelman in that department.
For what it's worth, the Jets have been rock solid in the kicking department. Kicker Nick Folk hasn't missed a kick all year, and punter Ryan Quigley has averaged an excellent 48.1 yards per punt.
Other factors to watch:
Weather an equalizer?
Heavy rain and wind are in the Foxborough forecast tonight, and that could play a big factor in how the game plays out on the field. If the conditions are rough enough to make passing difficult, they could level the playing field, as a game dominated by the run game favors the strengths of the Jets. Remember last year, when a combination of heavy rain and inexperience from Brady's receivers lead to a 13-10 slugfest at Gillette? Brady's receivers are a bit better this time around, but the rain could lead to a similar game, one which could narrow the gap between these two rivals
Rex's last stand?
With the Jets mired in a 1-5 start that already has their playoff hopes on life support, there's a very good chance this is Rex Ryan's last year as HC of the NYJ. If that's the case, this will be the last time Rex comes to Foxborough as the Jets coach. Rex surely knows this, and nothing would please the boisterous Jets coach more than finishing his tenure as New England's public enemy #1 than getting one more win over Brady and Belichick. Look for Rex to lay it all on the line, with plenty of aggressive and unpredictable blitz calls designed to rattle Brady and his (possibly) makeshift O-line.
Calling the shots
Losing middle linebacker and captain Jerod Mayo hurts the team talent-wise, but the greatest impact from his loss could come before the snap. Mayo was the defense's signal caller and was well-known for his pre-snap recognition and ability to communicate and get his teammates into proper position. In his absence, either Dont'a Hightower or Jamie Collins will take over his role of signal caller, and how they do in that role will effect the defense's overall long term performance. Hightower struggled in that role for much of last year, but he's also a year older and building off an excellent start to the season. Mayo's absence also means backup linebacker Deontae Skinner will have to quickly assimilate himself into the defense, and he could be targeted by the opposition in the passing game early on.
