Week 9 scouting report: Denver Broncos
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| Manning will be public enemy #1 in Foxborough on Sunday. Chris Humphreys/USA Today sports |
Denver offense
You already know Denver's offense is as prolific a unit as the Pats will face all year. The Broncos are once again tops in the league with 32 points per game, buoyed by the spectacular play of Peyton Manning. Manning's numbers have been sublime once again in 2014: 2,134 passing yards, a 69% completion percentage and a sizzling 22 touchdowns compared to only 3 interceptions.
Manning once again has a ton of weapons at his disposal, but everything when it comes to stopping Denver starts with the Thomases. At 6'3" and 229 pounds, receiver Demaryius Thomas has prototypical #1 receiver size and speed, making him the top big play threat on the offense. Despite a slow (by his lofty standards) start, Thomas already has 47 catches for 767 yards (16.3 per catch) and 6 touchdowns. Thomas is dangerous as a deep threat, but equally dangerous as a runner after the catch, something which Denver takes advantage of by getting him the ball in space on quick-hitting WR screens to the sideline.
Receiver's of Thomas' quality are exactly why the Patriots brought in Darrelle Revis this offseason, and it would be shocking if Revis doesn't spend the majority of Sunday's game glued to his hip. The Patriots didn't have an answer for Thomas's size in last year's AFC Championship game after Aqib Talib went down; now they have the best cover corner of his generation to sic on him. Thomas is good enough to make plays against anyone, but Revis should be able to dramatically limit his production, both with lockdown coverage and solid, fundamental tackling to limit his yards after the catch.
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| Thomas has been a TD machine this year. Photo via the Denver Post |
This could be where the offseason signing of Brandon Browner really starts to pay dividends for the Pats. At 6'4", 220 pounds himself, Browner is the rare cornerback big enough to tussle with tight ends, something he proved last week with some duty on Chicago's Martellus Bennett. Considering Thomas does most of his damage out of the slot, the opportunity will be there to treat him like a big receiver, allowing them to trot Browner out against him without compromising the defense scheme-wise.
Whether or not Browner can actually stop Thomas is another matter entirely. He was competitive against Bennett, who is a good player in his own right, but Thomas is a different breed of monster. If this is a matchup that plays out throughout the game, I'd expect both players to have their share of won and lost battles. However, having a player equipped to compete with Thomas in coverage gives the Patriots a rare advantage in defending Denver. It's a luxury that most teams don't have, and could turn a mismatch Peyton normally relies on into a 50/50 proposition.
Of course, even after dealing with those two, Denver still has plenty of weapons to worry about. Emmanuel Sanders was reportedly the apple of the Patriots eye for a while, and he's justified the Patriots interest in him with his play in Denver this year. The Denver offense hasn't skipped a beat despite losing last year's #2 receiver Eric Decker largely thanks to Sanders' production, and his ability to play both in the slot and outside helped the team overcome the early-season absence of Wes Welker. Welker is back and has made plays when targetted, catching 19 of his 24 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown, but the numbers suggest that Sanders has surpassed him on the depth chart. His explosive quickness and run after the catch ability has made him especially dangerous in Denver's wide-open spread offense, as his 47 catches for 634 yards and 4 touchdowns will attest.
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| Sanders could be a go-to target for Manning. Justin Edmonds/Getty Images |
The combination of Denver's tendency towards short, quick-hitting passes, Manning's lightning quick release and excellent line play made pressuring Peyton a lost cause last year. That hasn't quite been the case this year, although the dip has been from sublime protection to merely good thanks to off years from Manny Ramirez and Ryan Clady. The Patriots did a good job last week of using a combination of different players and looks to compensate for the loss of their best pass rusher, Chandler Jones, but plenty of that help came from linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins on the blitz. Given that blitzing Manning is the football equivalent of playing with fire, it will be up to unproven players like Zach Moore, Akeem Ayers and Dominique Easley to win their one-on-one matchups if the Pats want to bring any heat on Manning, who surely will be getting the ball out quickly.
The efficiency of Peyton's short-passing attack has lessened the need for a strong running game, and as a result the Broncos have been a mediocre running team statistically. They rank 17th in the league in attempts (189), 21st in yards (710) and 25th in yards per carry (3.8). However, the running game has gotten a boost in recent weeks from the speedy Ronnie Hillman, who has stepped in for the injured Montee Ball and played well. Hillman has averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per carry (compared to just 3.1 for Ball) and has also produced in the passing game, catching 11 of his 17 targets for 81 yards. Hillman has found himself in John Fox's doghouse in the past for fumbling, and his ball security should be targetted by a hard-hitting Patriots defense that has excelled at forcing turnovers again this year.
One of the keys to this game could be whether the Patriots can stop the run from their nickel defense. Denver's personnel practically forces opponents to line up in the nickel (refusing to do so might as well be football suicide against their weaponry), but doing so leaves defenses vulnerable to their rushing attack. We all remember last year, when Knowshon Moreno gashed the Patriots nickel defense for 224 yards. Daring Manning to keep handing it off rather than throw was part of the Patriots game-plan, but giving up 224 yards on the ground is hardly a recipe for repeated success. The Pats would surely take their chances in letting Hillman beat them rather than Manning, but Hillman has the speed to make home-run plays if the nickel allows Denver's offensive line to open up big holes to exploit. Sure tackling will be a must, as will a strong performance from Dont'a Hightower in closing the gaps up front.
Denver defense
As scary as Denver's offense is, their defense isn't far behind. They've allowed merely 20.3 points per game, a figure that ranks sixth in the NFL, thanks largely to the dynamic pass rushing duo of Demarcus Ware and Von Miller.
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| Ware gives Denver a second dynamic pass rusher. Doug Pensinger/Getty Images |
Denver's linebackers haven't lost a beat since losing speedy starter Danny Trevathan thanks largely to the emergence of Brandon Marshall. No, not that Brandon Marshall, Brandon Marshall the linebacker, who has emerged as a three-down backer thanks to his ability to use his atheticism in coverage and against the run. Couple that with the strong, downhill play of Nate Irving (+6.1 run defense grade from PFF) and you have a linebacking group that has contributed to that stingy performance against the run despite a lack of big names.
Much like Denver, New England's rushing offense is at it's best when they can exploit the nickel defenses their personnel forces opponents to use. Doing so this week will require excellent play from the interior combination of Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork and Dan Connolly, as well as more hard running from Jonas Gray, who was solid if unspectacular in his first game as New England's "big back" last week against Chicago. The Patriots don't really have the bulk up front to simply line up and run it down Denver's throat, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them use misdirection and some clever play-calling to create favorable angles for their linemen.
Getting something out of their rushing attack could be key for the Patriots this week, as allowing Denver's stingy front to make their offense one-dimensional could be very dangerous. The pass rushing duo of Miller and Ware have lived up to lofty expectations this year, combining for 18 sacks, 11 QB hits and 39 hurries. Both Nate Solder and Sebastien Vollmer will have to bring their "A-game" this week, but no offensive tackle is good enough to shut either of these guys down without some help. Whether it comes from chip blocks from running backs or extra help from a tight end, expect extra attention to be paid to these pass rushing terrors throughout the game. Solder could particularly use the help, as Miller's speed gave him fits last year (remember, it was Miller's strip sack that helped build Denver's big initial lead in last year's regular season contest).
Getting the running game going will help keep Denver's pass rushers honest, but it would also benefit the offense by opening up the play action passing game. Brady was masterful in play action last week, and destroyer-of-Gronk's-knee TJ Ward can have his aggressiveness exploited on play action fakes.
If the Pats protect Brady, they'll still be going against a Denver secondary better equipped than most to handle their passing attack. Aqib Talib is their de facto number one corner, but Chris Harris Jr. has been even better in a shocking comeback season after suffering a torn ACL back in January. Opposing quarterbacks are completing a miserable 42.1% of their passes against him, and he's yet to give up a touchdown while picking off two passes and defending another seven.
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| Can Talib take LeFell out of the equation? Photo via the Denver Post |
However, that still leaves Denver to contend with the Pats dynamic tight end duo, and there's no one on the Denver roster (or in the entire league) who can cover Rob Gronkowski when he plays like he has recently. Gronk has been a beast against Denver in his career, including his key role in last year's comeback win, and his recent play has conjured up memories of his record setting 2011 season. Some have speculated that Denver could use Talib on Gronk, just as New England used him on Jimmy Graham last year, but I just don't think Talib is big or strong enough to contend with Gronk. Denver's linebackers and safeties have generally played well in coverage, but there isn't a player capable of hanging with Gronk here. Look for him to be the focal point of New England's offense, as he should be every week.
Another tough matchup for Denver could be second tight end Tim Wright, who has had an impact on New England's offense despite his limited playing time. Despite playing an average of just under 16 snaps a game, Wright ranks third on the team with three receiving touchdowns, and he's caught 17 of his 18 targets from Brady for 182 yards. Most importantly, his athleticism and size present a matchup problem when New England lines him up in the slot, often forcing teams to devote an extra defensive back to cover him. Against Denver, that extra defensive back could be first round cornerback Bradley Roby, who has struggled through an up-and-down rookie season as the Broncos third corner. Roby is athletic, but at 5'11" could be mismatched if he tries to stick with the 6'4" Wright.
Special teams
Both teams have traditionally been solid on special teams, and that trend has continued in 2014. Denver's return game is less dynamic without the diminutive Trindon Holliday, but Andre Caldwell (yes, Reche's brother) has stepped in and averaged 30 yards a return without any of Holliday's maddening ball security issues. They've been less dynamic on punt returns, where Isaiah Burse has managed just 6.1 yards a return.
On the other hand, there could be a nice battle going on when Denver's stingy punt team (only 4.9 yards per return allowed) butts heads with the dynamic Julian Edelman. Edelman flashed his ever dangerous open field skills last week with a 42 yard return, and Denver will be counting on their excellent punter Britton Colquitt to minimize Edelman's damage with directional kicks away from him. Meanwhile, the Pats have gotten a spark on kick returns during the past two weeks from Danny Amendola, and will look to continue that in a game where field position could be key.
Denver's decision to replace veteran kicker Matt Prater with rookie Brandon McManus makes them less of a threat to salvage points from long distance. McManus has been a perfect 6-6 on kicks within 50 yards, but he's missed both kicks from 50 and beyond, an area Prater excelled in.
Other factors to consider
Rain, rain, come out to play
Sunday is still two days away, but the weather forecast is predicting rain and wind in Foxborough for this clash of the Titans. Bill Belichick was his typical dismissive self when asked about the weather today, saying "It was 100% chance of rain last week. Only water I saw was on the Gatorade table", but the weather could play a factor in this game if the forecast proves to be accurate. We all know about Peyton Manning's long history of struggling in adverse weather conditions, and Tom Brady has an equally long history of excellence in rain/wind/sleet/what-have-you. If the weather cooperates, it could be an advantage for New England.
Where's the rematch?
Pretty much everyone in the football world (minus a few AFC teams, of course) expects this game to have a rematch come January, most likely in the AFC Championship game. If that proves to be true, this game could have a major impact on where said game is played, as the winner will take the early lead in the race for the AFC's top seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. A Denver win will give them about as commanding a lead as one could hope for this early in the season: two games over the then 6-3 Patriots with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. However, a Patriots win would push them to 7-2, giving them a game in the standings over then 6-2 Denver with the head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor. We all know what happened last year, as Peyton got ideal conditions playing at home in the title game and whipped the helpless Pats with his efficient attack. If the rematch is in Foxborough this year (and, more importantly, in January Massachusetts weather), it could help turn the tide in New England's favor.
Handle the hype
Brady vs. Manning has been the most hyped game of the regular season for some time now, and 2014 is no exception. Add the playoff stakes at play and several juicy storylines (Welker and Talib return to Foxborough, TJ Ward playing against Gronk, Revis and Browner's debuts against the Denver offense they were signed to stop) and this game should have a playoff atmosphere. Given the relative closeness of these two teams talent-wise (I'd probably give Denver the edge on paper, but a healthy Gronk is a great equalizer), the team that plays with better poise and composure throughout will probably be the one to emerge victorious. It will be a great test for New England's young roster, which has a number of key new faces getting their first taste of the Brady/Manning rivalry.
