Where will Revis be?

Revis will likely face off against Hilton more often than not.

While this may seem an easy question to answer, simply by saying he will cover T.Y. Hilton exclusively, there is a bit more to it than that. While Hilton is by far the biggest threat on the Colts offense, next to Andrew Luck, the Patriots likely will not give the Colts a simple, straight up defense. If there is anything Belichick and Matt Patricia like to do, it is to confuse offensive signal callers. And they have done so with Andrew Luck every time they have faced him. Given that, I could see the defense using several strategies revolving around the placement and use of T.Y. Hilton in regards to Darrelle Revis.

The biggest thing to consider is that T.Y. Hilton is a versatile enough WR to play outside and in the slot. Out of his 357 routes ran, 141 of them have been from the slot. Revis on the other hand, has rarely played in the slot, with only 57 of his 596 snaps covering a slot receiver. I think this is the primary obstacle to Revis blanketing Hilton on every snap. Revis' highest number of snaps covering the slot was against Miami in week one, when Revis was shadowing Mike Wallace over the field. If the Colts decide to go to a two WR set, Revis could very well follow Hilton anywhere on the field. Other than that, if the Colts go three WR, he would likely cover the WR on the right side. Revis has actually played fairly well in the slot, allowing four receptions on ten targets for 44 yards, including an interception, resulting in a 14.2 QBR. Should Hilton be in the slot, and there is a WR outside of him, I expect over/under coverage with Kyle Arrington or Alfonso Dennard manning him up, and Devin McCourty playing over the top.

Besides Hilton being used often in the slot, he also has the tendency to be used on the right side of the formation, which happens to be Revis' default side. He has been targeted 27 times to the right side of the field, in comparison to being targeted just 7 times on the left. If you're wondering why these numbers are so small, it is because he has been targeted 45 times in the middle of the field. With his tendency to be featured on the right side, and Revis being the one who patrols that side of the field, it will likely result in more match ups between the two. This also plays well for Brandon Browner, who will likely be paired against Reggie Wayne if he is on the left side.

The final thing to consider, is that the Patriots like to hide their defensive scheme and confuse opposing quarterbacks. While the Patriots have featured a great deal of man coverage this year thanks to Revis and Browner, but they also have the ability to mix in zone coverage. In these scenarios, Revis may be shadowing Hilton, as if in man coverage, but instead drops into a zone. We saw a lot of creativity in coverages against the Broncos, by means of innovative stunts, defensive linemen dropping into coverage, and zone blitzing schemes. Belichick will likely implement more of this going forward against high power offenses, like the Colts. Given Hilton's use in the middle of the field, I could see these schemes being heavily used to trick Luck into thinking there won't be a defender roaming in the middle of the field, while dropping a LB or DL staying in a hook/curl zone.

Overall, I envision Revis manning up against Hilton almost 80-90% of the time. That being said, don't be surprised to see Revis being employed to cover other receivers or provide different coverages based on the formation and location of T.Y. Hilton. Given his explosiveness and physical ability, it will take more than one defender in order to cover Hilton, but it can be done.

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