John’s Well-Educated Guesses: Week 3 – The Recap

Every week I make predictions about how things will play out in the game.  I’m a man of integrity and I always answer for my predictions.  It’s time to pay the piper. 

Prediction: Watt and Clowney will both get a sack: It’s really weird that both of these guys have not been able to get to the quarterback in the previous two games.  Almost seems like a numbers game, and they are due to make their mark in the backfield.  With Marcus Cannon in the concussion protocol, the O-line could also be shorthanded.  I anticipate that Brady will get the ball out early on a regular basis, but when he can’t (remember the press coverage), he will turtle and take a few sacks.  He knows that as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, the Texans can’t keep up.  We will sacrifice a few drives with this in mind.

Result:  Watt never got his sack, so I was not technically right on this one, but I was in the right ballpark.  Clowney had two sacks and a tuddy, while Watt was double teamed all game.  He was still disruptive.  Overall, the Texan front seven was in the backfield all day making life tough for Tom Terrific…He was starting to see ghosts and getting rattled.  After the Patriots fumbled, there was a lot of luck to get the ball to bounce right especially on that last drive.  All in all, Houston did what it needed to do up front to win the game…almost at least.

Prediction: Belichick will take Deandre Hopkins out of the game:  I am literally going to copy and paste my analysis from week 1 regarding Travis Kelce.  Hopkins is obviously their best receiver and without him they are going to have a hard time keeping up: 

If anyone understands the power of the (WR) position its Big Billy B.  I expect (Hopkins) to be bracketed, and to have a nothing stat line (sorry fantasy owners (and full disclosure, I own Hopkings in my league…fuck)).   I think the emphasis will be on making it hard for (Houston) to operate their offense, and he is too big a cog to let run wild.  

Result: 8 targets, 7 catches for 76 yards.  No tuddies.  Frankly, I think this was a good day for Hopkins considering the attention that was paid to him.  Besides having Watson scramble, Deandre was the only other focal point of the offense.  That being said, Bill did not let him hurt us too bad.

Prediction:  It will be a big day for wide receivers running the football:  I’ll do one more prediction on how the Pats will attack this defense.  I really loved a wrinkle they introduced last week by having Brandin Cooks and Phillip Dorsett run the ball on end-arounds.  It gets the ball out super quick, and it’s a great way to take advantage of their turbo speed.  It also keeps the defensive edge players honest.  You know they want to disrupt the backfield and get Brady off his spot…If they have to set the edge instead of pin their ears back and rush, it gives Brady an extra second to find the open man.  Also keep an eye out for the Jet Sweep and a quick dump screen to be effective for the same reasons.

Result: Ok this didn’t happen at all.  The Pats were way more committed to having Gillislee run between the tackles with draw plays.  Didn’t work too good IMHO.  Dorsett barely saw the field with Amendola back in the mix, and Brandin Cooks was utilized as a deep threat….Can’t complain about that considering how the game ended.

Prediction:  28-20 Pats

Result: 36-33 – It was a lot closer than most thought so I wasn’t too far off all things considered…I mean it was like a 14 point spread.