Deeper look at the Emmanuel Sanders deal
The Patriots made some moves today by extending an offer sheet to Pittsburgh RFA Emmanuel Sanders, and resigning oft-injured but clearly talented slot receiver Julian Edelman. Should the Sanders signing stand, the moves will add depth to a position where the team had some glaring needs.
Looking at the Sanders signing specifically, initially it was surprising to me for a number of reasons. Firstly, it came after weeks of silence following his initial visit with the teams. Many, including myself, speculated the team was looking towards the draft to add a talented pass catcher. But apparently the Patriots are aware of the fact that they have a terrible track record doing so.
Mike Reiss raised an excellent point in his own analysis of the Sanders deal today regarding the Patriots history of selecting receivers in the draft, bringing to light a recent quote from Belichick that makes more sense of the Sanders signing:
“As I’ve said many times before, I think the college passing game is a lot different than the [pro] passing game -- pass protection, pass rush, pass execution and pass defense. We all look at the same film. We’re all trying to evaluate the same players. But it’s a lot easier to watch a guy in the NFL perform and translate his skills for your team than watch a guy in college perform because of the discrepancy in the passing game. It’s nobody’s fault. That’s just the way it is.’’
When you take into account the fundamental differences Bill is discussing here between the college and pro passing game, and combine it with the complexity of the Patriot's system in particular; it seems to make more sense that the team would pursue a somewhat proven NFL receiver over what seems to be a shot in the dark position to draft.
So for these reasons- the Sanders signing was a solid move by the Patriots. But the question I raise is: Is he any good? His career statistics would not suggest he is not the stand out player that some seem to be portraying him as. Furthermore, I would view him as a downgrade from Brandon Lloyd. Despite Lloyd's erratic behavior, it seems to be getting thrown under the rug that he had a 74 catch, 911 yard season last year, in an offensive system that receivers often cannot handle. Sanders is an upgrade from what was on the Patriots roster at the beginning of the week; but that's not saying much.
Last year was Sanders best season, one in which he had 44 catches for 626 yards and 1 touchdown. Not exactly eye-popping numbers. And if we look at numbers alone, it's clear that he is yet to match the production levels of Lloyd. But he is five years younger than Lloyd, and a player who is still developing his talent. In this sense the situation here is reminiscent of Welker/Amendola. A downgrade in terms of current on-field production, but an upgrade when looking at potential for the future.
But perhaps the most puzzling piece of the deal is that the Patriots are sacrificing a third round pick and only signing Sanders to a one-year deal. Sacrificing the pick for such a short-term deal to a talented but unproven player is very uncharacteristic of Belichick and the team as a whole, especially taking into account how the real weakness in the team lies on the defensive side of the ball. Sanders must have really impressed during his visit for the team to make a sacrifice like they did.
Boston Globe Patriot's writer Greg Bedard posted some interesting analysis today after watching "the better part of four games" worth of Sanders game tape. From this film study, he reached the following conclusions regarding Sanders as a player:
- Average intellignece
- Excellent blocking skills
- Good at beating press coverage
- Possesses versatility, can play inside and outside receiver positons
- 4.4 speed
- Solid, tough all-around reciever, but has had some shoulder and back issues
- "Can do alot of things Brandon Lloyd did, but better and faster."
Bedard is a great writer, and these things may be true. But I don't think these conclusions can be definitively drawn by a quick analysis of four games. Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are both players who have proven they can succeed, and in Welker's case excel, within the Patriots offensive system. Bringing in untested players like Amendola and Sanders to replace them is what I would define as a high-risk, high-reward decision making.
And the last question I wanted to raise: What about Danario? Since the off-season began I have been clamoring for the Pats to bring in Danario Alexander, currently a restricted free agent with the Chargers. He has struggled with knee injuries but absolutely exploded at the end of last season offensively.
Both receivers, Alexander and Sanders, have played 3 seasons in the NFL. Let's do a quick side-by-side comparison of their production during that span:
Sanders: 40 games played, 94 receptions, 1,290 yards, 13.7 YPC average, 5 touchdowns
Alexander: 28 games played, 83 receptions, 1,395 yards, 16.8 YPC average, 10 touchdowns
As you can see, Alexander has significantly outdone Sanders in every stat category (aside from receptions where he slightly trails) despite playing in twelve less games. Also, please note that Alexander stands at 6'5", 217 pounds, compared with Sanders who is of Welker-ish stature. Oh, and one more thing... if the Patriots were to sign DA, they would not have to give up any draft picks.
The counter-arguments to these points would be that the team values Sanders versatility in that he can play in the slot and outside positions, compared with Alexander who is a more straight-forward outside receiver. There is also the thought that unless a team makes a major offer for Alexander, the Chargers are not going to let him walk after showing what he was capable of last year. But why the Patriots are choosing not to make a run at Alexander is not clear to me.
In Bill We Trust, I guess.