New England's Red Zone Woes Continue, Add 3rd Down Conversion to List of Problems on Offense

The Patriots in the 2012 regular season were the most efficient offense since, well, the Patriots of 2007. They averaged 34.8 points per game, 430 yards per game, 49% conversion on 3rd down, 48.1% of drives led to a score, a +25 turnover margin, and a 12.5 point margin of victory - all league leading statistics. They were 3rd in red zone touchdown percentage with 67.5%. If they had Rob Gronkowski, you could expect that to be a league leading stat. Why? Because:


The Patriots are looking like a team that will not even sniff those numbers this year, even if we are only two games into the season. Two games that, with a different schedule, could have very well been two losses.


Through two games, the Patriots are averaging 18 points per game, 332.5 yards per game, 26.5% of drives end up in a score, a +2 turnover margin and a +2.5 margin of victory. As I said, this is a very small sample size, but the two teams they have played thus far had a .375 winning percentage last year, compared to the Patriots' opponent average winning percentage of .496, so the sample size should inflate the Patriots stats from last year if all stayed the same.

Prior to this season, the great fears of the Patriots offense was the fact that both Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd (the Pats two leading receivers) were gone, and that his replacement, Danny Amendola, along with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez - left the offense injury prone. Well, as we know, Hernandez is incarcerated for murder, Gronk is still missing, and Amendola is out 2-6 weeks. Adding to that injury list is Gronk's highly touted back-up in Zach Sudfeld, and Danny Woodhead's replacement in Shane Vereen. In addition to all of that, the rookie wide receivers of Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Josh Boyce have been more than underwhelming, they have been dreadful.

So, with all of the Patriots worst fears being realized, we should just be thankful that the Patriots schedule and record does not have to reflect the extreme decline in offensive production. I will also point out that the Patriots started 1-2 last year, including an inexplicable loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and 3-3 after six games. After that, they lost one game by one possession to the San Francisco 49ers. They get better throughout the year, and no other team has the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick duo to help coach them up over the course of the season.

Do not lose hope, but at the same time, this is obviously nowhere close to the team we saw last year in terms of offensive production - but that could change if the injury tides change and Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen stay healthy after returning to play.

Best case scenario - we see a turnaround with a healthy squad. Worst case scenario - we see the 2006 Patriots with an equally horrible receiving corps. In parting, I will leave you with this statistic of hope.