Week 3 Scouting Report: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots, coming off of arguably the ugliest win of the Belichick/Brady era, will take on the dysfunctional but talented Tampa Bay Bucs this Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The game could mark the return of All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski, pits the Pats against an old nemesis in Darrelle Revis, and will feature by far the most Rutgers players in any game this year. It also serves as about as close to a must-win game that a 2-0 team can see, with Atlanta, Cincinnati and New Orleans looming for the struggling Pats. Here's a look at some of the matchups that will decide the game.
When the Patriots have the ball:
I said last week that things could get ugly against the Jets and unfortunately was proven right by the action during the game. Unfortunately, things could be even tougher in this one. Tampa Bay has one of the best defenses in the league. Their defensive line, which features Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn (aka the guy who scared the shit out of Pats fans everywhere by hitting Tom Brady in practice this August) and Da'Quan Bowers is stout against the run and ferocious when rushing the passer. They are backed by a trio of athletic, hard hitting linebackers in Lavonte David, Mason Foster and Dekoda Watson. The secondary features the aforementioned Revis, intimidating hitter Dashon Goldson, last year's top 10 pick Mark Barron at strong safety and talented second rounder Jonathan Banks at corner. It's a unit that held Drew Brees and the Saints to 16 points last Sunday and has yet to allow more than 18 points this year.
Things will look much brighter for the Patriots if they can get Gronk back, but the Boston Globe is reporting that Gronk is likely to miss this week before coming back Week 4 against Atlanta. Assuming Gronk doesn't go, the Pats will take on this talented Tampa front with the same murderers row of weapons from the Jets game: Julian Edelmen, struggling rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, Stevan Ridley (dealing with fumbling issues) annnnd...Michael Hoomanawanui? Perhaps Zach Sudfeld comes back and gets a chance to make an impact in the passing game? It could be a long day for the Patriots offense, especially if Tampa is able to shut down the run early and make the Pats one dimensional. The passing game is struggling enough right now; the last thing it needs is a nasty front seven turning its pass rush loose on Brady.
When the Bucs have the ball:
This isn't nearly the test Atlanta or New Orleans will be, but this Tampa Bay offense has dangerous playmakers that will have to be accounted for. This starts with the receivers, where Vincent Jackson is one of the toughest covers the secondary will see all season. Jackson is a big (6'5") explosive athlete who makes big plays week in and week out. Patriots fans should be breathing a huge sigh of relief that Aqib Talib returned to practice today, because I shudder to think of what Jackson would do matched up with either 5'10" Kyle Arrington or 5'10" Alfonzo Dennard. Even if Talib follows Jackson around all day, one of those depth corners will be tested by Mike Williams who, like Jackson, is a big explosive receiver capable of making plays down the field.
The good news is these guys are relying on Josh Freeman to get them the ball. Freeman's contract season has gotten off to a dreadful start. The quarterback has a Tebow-esque 45.3% completion percentage and a 63.0 QB rating that only beats Brandon Weeden and Geno Smith so far. On top of that, rumors of tension between Freeman and head coach Greg Schiano have run rampant this week. Freeman reportedly believes that Schiano rigged voting to prevent the signal caller from being a Captain this year and had to deny a report that he'd request a midseason trade, while the Bucs have leaked out stories of Freeman missing the team picture. Needless to say, all is not well in Tampa.
However, Freeman certainly has talent and weapons that can hurt you deep. Freeman is the third mobile quarterback the Patriots have faced in as many weeks, meaning the Pats will likely emphasize rush lane discipline once again to prevent Freeman from hurting them with his ability to scramble. It's also worth noting that Freeman is known to gamble at times, meaning a Pats defense known for its ballhawking abilities will likely have the chance to create turnovers. If the secondary can keep big plays to a minimum, this matchup will begin to tilt their way.
The bad news is that Freeman has one of the best running backs in all of football to hand it off too. Dougie "Muscle Hamster" Martin is one of the few backs who can truly do it all. He's tough, physical and explosive as a runner and adds the ability to hurt you as a pass catcher out of the backfield (something worth noting with Patriots bigger, slower linebackers). The Pats did a great job containing CJ Spiller in Week One, but struggled last week against the Jets power rushing, with Vince Wilfork having an uncharacteristic bad day. Whatever ailed the Pats run D last week will have to be cured by Sunday, because they can count on seeing a healthy dose of Martin.
Special Teams:
Keep an eye on the Pats kick and punt coverage teams this week, as they were dealt a heavy blow with the loss of Matthew Slater. Slater is one of the best special teams players in all of football and, despite seeing a lot of double teams, is consistently the first guy down the field making tackles and downing kicks deep in enemy territory. The recent struggles of the Pats offense put a premium on field position (a factor that played a big role in the Pats narrow win against the Jets last week) and they can ill afford to see a big drop off there.
Coaching/Intangibles:
Are the Bucs quitting on Greg Schiano? Reports have come out that the tensions in the locker room go far beyond Freeman, with veterans like Revis questioning the coaches disciplinarian methods. Likewise, despite his disciplinarian approach, Schiano's Bucs have been the least disciplined team in football through two weeks. The Bucs are tied for the league lead with 26 called penalties (3 have been declined), including four of the 15 yard "unnecessary roughness" variety. They have averaged a league high 110 penalty yards per game so far. This is all not to mention how many of these penalties have come in crucial situations, with Lavonte David's moronic late hit on Geno Smith standing in early contention for "Dumbass Play of the Year."
Staying disciplined and waiting for other teams to make mistakes has long been part of the winning strategy in Foxboro. Considering the Bucs play so far this season, it's a strategy that should play dividends.
Ultimately, that is what will determine this game. Many of the physical matchups on the field favor the Bucs, but they are prone to the kind of mistakes (turnovers, penalties) that can negate a talent advantage. If the Pats defense can limit the big play and force Tampa to play a good, consistent game, things could tip the home team's way. Tampa is more than capable of beating themselves if the Pats let them. However, if the Bucs win the one-on-one matchups that they should (at least on paper), it's hard to see a Patriots win with this offense against their defense.
