Week One Scouting Report: Buffalo Bills

The Patriots will open their season on the road this Sunday with a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium and the division rival Bills. Here's a breakdown of the matchups that will decide the game.

When Buffalo has the ball:

Obviously, it's tough to evaluate any offense without knowing who the starting quarterback is. I'm going to operate under the assumption that EJ Manuel, who returned to practice this week after undergoing minor knee surgery, is healthy enough to prevent Tuel time.

The Bills offense will live and die with its running backs. CJ Spiller is one of the most explosive playmakers in the league, capable of turning any busted play into a spectacular highlight. Buffalo will try to get Spiller touches in a variety of ways, including catching the ball out of the backfield. He will undoubtedly be the focal point of the Patriots defense and should be a good test for a defense who struggled a little bit with it's open field tackling against Reggie Bush in the preseason. One wonders if rookie linebacker Jaimie Collins could be used to help counter Spiller's elite athleticism.

Behind Spiller are Fred Jackson and Tashard Choice. Jackson has battled injuries in the past two seasons, but has been very productive when healthy throughout his career. His presence will allow the Bills to keep emphasizing the run even when Spiller takes a breather.

Emphasizing the run will be very important because of the state of the passing game. If the Bills are lucky enough to avoid starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel, they'll be playing a rookie QB coming off of knee surgery. For his part, Manuel has looked alright in the preseason, but he's also mostly been dinking and dunking with short passes. He also doesn't have much on offense aside from outspoken receiver Stevie Johnson and solid tight end Scott Chandler. Both players are good, productive players, but neither are the kind of superstar that can carry a passing game. Behind them are a handful of talented but unproven players (TJ Graham, rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin), each of whom could really help their team by stepping up and becoming a reliable producer on offense.

Of course, if Tuel winds up starting, the emphasis on the run will become even more important. Either way, Buffalo's offense should be on the conservative side to protect their young quarterbacks.

It's a matchup that should favor the Patriots, but I've seen New England's defense get picked apart by inferior competition far too many times in the past three years to take any opposing offense for granted. The best case scenario is that the Patriots front seven dominates a Buffalo offensive line that lost standout guard Andy Levitre to free agency, shutting down the run and attacking with constant pressure once Manuel/Tuel are forced to throw. The worse case scenario is New England's pass rush failing to consistently bother the quarterback, giving Buffalo's playmakers (namely Spiller, Johnson and Chandler) enough time to exploit the Patriots secondary and linebackers in coverage.

When the Patriots have the ball:

Not to sound like a broken record, but pass rush will play a huge role in how this matchup plays out as well. Buffalo's defense is built around a strong defensive line featuring former top 3 picks Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus alongside the perennially underated Kyle Williams. The Patriots offense has struggled in the past when faced with a strong pass rush up the middle and the Bills, despite their recent struggles with New England, have the players on paper to do just that.

They will have to, because Buffalo's secondary will get picked apart all game if Tom Brady has any time to throw. Buffalo's only had two starting caliber players in their secondary to begin with: now one (cornerback Stephon Gilmore) is out for two months with a hand injury and the other (Pro Bowl safety Jarius Byrd) is dealing with plantar fasciitis, a notoriously difficult injury to play through. First round bust Leodis McKelvin will be the top cornerback facing off against the Patriots receivers. Even though they are young, the young guys in the Pats receiving corp absolutely have the talent and the quarterback to exploit the hell out of this matchup. As long as Brady is kept relatively clean, expect the Pats offense to be ruthlessly effective through the air. Not exactly going out on a limb at this point, but my hunch is that Kenbrell Thompkins will have himself a day Sunday.

The Pats running backs are surely licking their chops as well, as Buffalo memorably gave up 100 yard rushing games to both Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden during a Week Four blowout last year. Once again, only a big performance from the Bills stars up front should stop the Patriots from winning this matchup as well. Buffalo went young at linebacker this offseason, replacing veterans Nick Barnett, Kirk Morrison and Kelvin Sheppard with younger, cheaper options like rookie Kiko Alonso and Nigel Bradham. If the Pats find success on the ground early, it will open a whole new can of worms for the Buffalo defense, as Tom Brady will look to expose the young linebackers through play action.

Again, this is a matchup that the Patriots should decidedly win as long as it wins the line of scrimage. The best case scenario is that the offensive line does it's job and handles Buffalo's monsters up front, allowing Brady and his collection of skill guys to do just about whatever they want against a weak Buffalo secondary. The worst case scenario is that the Buffalo pass rush gets to Brady, creating a turnover or two that helps keep the Bills in the game.

Special Teams:

In a matchup this one-sided on paper, Buffalo will need any field position boost it can get. The Patriots kick and punt coverage teams didn't exactly set the world on fire during the preseason; they'll be asked to keep Buffalo's talented group of return men (led by Leodis McKelvin) from breaking off the kind of big play that dramatically impacts a game. A return from special teams ace Nate Ebner could only help matters in that regard.

Coaching/Intangables

We don't know much of anything yet about Buffalo's rookie head coach, Doug Marrone, but it's safe to assume future Hall-of-Famer Bill Belichick should have the advantage in this one. The game is being played in Buffalo, but that has been of little advantage for the Bills this decade. The Patriots are an astonishing 23-3 against the Bills during Belichick's thirteen seasons as head coach. With Gilmore out and both Manuel and Byrd hobbled, health also plays into the Patriots favor, although it's worth keeping an eye on Alfonzo Dennard's legal availability. 

Bottom line: If all of Buffalo's big guns come to play in a big way Sunday, they will have a chance. If they don't, this Bills team lacks the depth to hold up, especially against a strong, well-rounded group in New England. Things could get ugly very quickly if that happens.