Patriots Depth Will be Tested by Bilal Powell
Doug Martin. Julio Jones. AJ Green. Jimmy Graham. Bilal Powell?
After four straight weeks of game planning around an elite playmaker, the Patriots head to MetLife Stadium this week to face a Jets offense that lacks any big names. However, the Patriots defense has lost several key contributors to injury and will find their depth tested by the emerging Powell.
The 2011 fourth round pick has taken over the lead back role previously held by Shonn Greene and established himself as a solid contributor on offense. His 360 rushing yards currently rank fourth in the AFC and have come on a healthy 4.1 yards per carry. While other backs have come and gone (Chris Ivory is working his way back into the rotation from a hamstring injury, while Mike Goodson is out for the year with a torn ACL), Powell has been a rock in the New York backfield.
That rock will likely get plenty of work this Sunday. Not only will establishing the run early help out rookie quarterback Geno Smith, but running could also be the best way to gain yardage against a Patriots defense that will likely be without Tommy Kelly and Aqib Talib in addition to Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo.
The Patriots have given up solid yardage on the ground in back-to-back weeks with Wilfork missing, but benefited last week from the Saints commitment to their passing game. Of course, putting the game in your quarterback's hands makes sense when you have Drew Brees on your team. The Jets, on the other hand, have the Geno Smith rollercoaster behind center, and will benefit greatly from a solid rushing performance. Good production from the running game will keep pressure off of Geno while helping to keep third downs to manageable distances. Unless the Jets coaching staff abandons all common sense (which cannot be ruled out since it's the Jets), expect them to pound the rock inside early and often.
How will the Patriots combat this? In this case, it's a simple as saying their linebackers will need to step up and make plays. Donta' Hightower will likely slide into Mayo's role as the signal caller and middle linebacker, while Brandon Spikes will continue to be an important run stuffer in the team's base defense. Spikes has seen his playing time decrease this year due to the amount of nickel defense the Pats have played, but he will likely see a big role if the Jets try to use power formations to run inside.
Mayo's absence will also mean larger roles for Dane Fletcher and athletic rookie Jamie Collins. Fletcher has been a solid player in his career, but hasn't seen many defensive snaps so far after returning from last year's torn ACL. Collins has quietly seen his role increased in past weeks as a coverage linebacker, and while he hasn't done anything to stand out yet, he hasn't looked out of place either against high level NFL competition.
Finally, the assumed absence of Kelly (who hasn't practiced all week) will leave the all-undrafted duo of Joe Vellano and Chris Jones to man the middle of the defensive line for another week. Both have played hard and done about as well as one could hope considering the circumstances, but both have been well below average against the run this year. If they continue to get pushed around up front, look for Marcus Forston to get a chance to plug the leaks up front. Forston, a recent practice squad promotion, had a solid training camp and is a big body in the middle against the run. A few weeks of solid play could give him a decent chance to take over the starting job next Tommy Kelly, at least on early downs.
