There's always next year: Forecasting 2014

The 2013 Patriots season has sadly come to an abrupt end with a 26-10 loss to Denver in the AFC Championship game, but it's never to early to start forecasting the long-term outlook towards the 2014 season. Lets take a quick look at what changes could be forthcoming this offseason.

Aqib Talib:

There's no question the biggest decision surrounding the Patriots this offseason is how to handle the free agency of Aqib Talib. Talib has undeniably been a difference-maker for New England's defense since his arrival midway through 2012. Not only has his ability to lock down opposing team's number one receivers become a key ace in the hole when matching up with the premiere passing attacks of today's pass-happy NFL, but Talib also seems to bring some necessary swagger and nastiness to the entire defensive unit. One merely has to look at Talib's play when healthy this season to see what kind of player he can be; at one point the cornerback turned in near shutdown performances facing Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Jimmy Graham in consecutive weeks.

Unfortunately, the Patriots have learned about Talib's importance to the defense the hard way in consecutive AFC Championship games. In both cases, Talib's assignment (Anquan Boldin and Demaryius Thomas) has gone off on the mismatched Patriots depth options after Talib was forced out of the game. Simply put, players like Talib who actually have a chance against receivers the Demaryius Thomases of the world are rare in the NFL. There's really no way to compensate for suddenly losing a player of that caliber, especially against an all-time great passing offense.

All of this makes resigning Talib sound like a no-brainer, but the Patriots do have to consider the increasing frequency of Talib's injury issues. The corner has never played a full 16 game NFL season in his six season career, with a combination of injuries and suspensions robbing him of 19 games already in his career. Also scary about Talib: his specific penchant for hip injuries (Three already in his career), his well-earned reputation as an occasional hot-head and the fact that the Patriots have yet to see him not in a contract year.

The free agent market will likely play a big factor into Talib's decision. At 27, Talib's leverage will probably never be higher to get a big-money, long-term contract. The market simply wasn't there for cornerbacks last year, enabling the Patriots to sign Talib to a one-year deal worth just about $5 million. If it's there this year, there's no way to know if Talib's expressed love of the franchise and it's culture will be enough to overcome the allures of a bigger pile of guaranteed money somewhere else.

Ultimately, the Patriots defense gets a lot worse if they lose Talib. There are justifiable reasons to be concerned about a multi-year commitment in this case, but the Patriots better have a plan B ready if Talib is not brought back this offseason.

Non-Talib free agents

Talib is merely the most irreplaceable of the Patriots several key free agents this offseason. Wide receiver Julian Edelman, running back LeGarrette Blount, linebacker Brandon Spikes and tight ends Matthew Mulligan and Michael Hoomanawanui are the other headliners or the Pats upcoming free agents.

Spikes appears to be good as gone after having discipline issues throughout his four year New England career, but the other four guys all are likely to be guys the organization would like to bring back, albeit at the right price. They'll be counting on other teams holding Edelman's injury history and slot receiver size, Mulligan and Hoomanawanui's limitations as pass catching threats, and Blount's being a running back against them, driving down the cost of keeping them in Patriots uniforms.

Edelman and the tight ends both represent interesting decisions for an offense midway through a rebuild. The Patriots clearly like Edelman, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they balk at handing a player with his injury history a long-term deal. They'd certainly need to replace Edelman with a playmaking target if they let him go, as Edelman was the Patriots passing offense at times this year.

As for the tight ends, the Patriots figure to be without Gronkowski for the start of next season and quite possibly longer. Hooman and Mulligan both provided excellent blocking in the running game, but neither have the athleticism to pose any serious threat to a defense as receiving threats. That lack of backup receiving threat behind Gronk is an issue the Pats will surely look to remedy this offseason, be it by free agency or the draft.

Blount is clearly a talented back worthy of getting carries at the NFL level, but his position (running back), history of inconsistent and lack of versatility make it hard to see the Patriots ponying up top dollar to keep him. Unfortunately for Blount, I don't think the market will be all that great for him considering the devaluation of his position, opening the door for a potential return to New England.

Draft/Free Agency Needs:

The Patriots enter this draft in dire need of adding a few playmakers to it's team. An excellent draft in 2013 helped bolstor the team's depth, particularly on defense, but they still have a few areas of need that will surely be addressed in the offseason.

Brady's weaponry will be a discussion topic all off season and deservedly so, as Julian Edelman's free agency could weaken that group even more. If Edelman leaves, the Pats will be down to Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce at receiver. With that much youth already on the roster, this looks like a position to be addressed via free agency. Perhaps the Patriots will take another run at Pittsburgh free agent Emanuel Sanders.

The team is also in dire need of a tight end with receiving skills. The Patriots simply didn't throw to the tight end when Gronk was out of the lineup in 2013, making them much easier to defend. Whether that comes from the draft (where freakishly athletic TE prospects seem to grow on trees now) or free agency (Tony Gonzalez?) remains to be seen, but expect a move to be made here.

The other needs on the team are less pressing, but still could stand for an upgrade. An additional pass rusher to take some of the burden off of overworked Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich would be nice. With Spikes gone, the team could stand to add some depth at linebacker (preferably depth that's adept in coverage) to supplement the starting trio of Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. If Talib leaves, the need will be there for another corner. With both Wilfork and Tommy Kelly coming off of injuries and over 30, some insurance at defensive tackle would be nice. Finally, with Blount a free agent and both Ridley and Vereen entering their contract years, it wouldn't surprise me if the Patriots restocked the cubbard at running back.

Development:

There's already a lot to like about the 2014 Patriots. Many of the young players that make up it's core got valuable experience this season, and have emerged from the year a battle-tested and resilient group. The defense is getting younger and more athletic by the year and could see breakout years from Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower next season, along with another step up from Chandler Jones. Offensively, they'll be looking for Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins to build on their fragmented rookie seasons, developing into steady playmakers who can bring some needed athleticism and size to the position. They also pretty much know that they can't possibly have as many injuries as they did this year, which is relieving.

However, it's hard to prognosticate how the season will go with this many unknowns still up in the air. The Patriots enter this offseason at a bit of a crossroads; with Tom Brady at 36, the window for championship contender is definitely getting a bit smaller by the year. 

However, Brady seems more and more like the only constant on offense with this team going forward. Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola are perpetual question-marks due to their injury histories. Julian Edelman and LeGarrette Blount are free agents. Vereen and Ridley are set to become free agents in a year. Drastic changes will be coming to this offense; whether they come this year or next will be a big part of the 2014 Patriots story.

The defense isn't without it's fair share of questions too. Will Aqib Talib come back, and can he stay healthy if he does? Will Vince Wilfork be able to come back and regain his Pro Bowl form after his nasty injury. Can Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower continue to build on their strong finishes to 2013? This defense looked like an excellent unit before injuries robbed it of it's two rocks in Mayo and Wilfork. With those guys expected back, can the defense take the next step and become one of the league's best?

Stay tuned to find out. This is going to be one hell of an interesting offseason.