Thompkins concussion leaves Pats dangerously thin at receiver

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One of the few downsides of the Patriots 43-22 win over the Colts was the injury to wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins. The rookie was crushed on a slant in the middle of the field, leaving the game with what the Patriots called a "head" injury.

This means the rookie receiver will likely have to go through the NFL's concussion protocol in order to play in next Sunday's AFC Championship game showdown with Denver. While Thompkins being cleared to play in a week would be far from unprecedented, his potential absence could leave the Patriots extremely thin at wide receiver.

Thompkins has been battling with fellow rookie Aaron Dobson most of the season for snaps at the "X" (outside) receiver in the Pats offense. At 6'1" and 6'3" respectively, these two are by far the biggest receivers on the team, as well as it's best downfield threats. However, Dobson re-aggravated his nagging foot injury in the season finale against Buffalo, leaving his status for the postseason in serious doubt, while third option Josh Boyce has been placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury.

Without Thompkins, the Patriots wideouts would be down to Julian Edelman (5'10"), Danny Amendola (5'11") and Austin Collie (6'0"), all of whom are better suited working in the slot. Matthew Slater is nominally a receiver, but the special teams captain has been an afterthought on offense during his career.

Considering the complexity of the Patriots offense, bringing in outside help seems implausible. The Pats do have three receivers on their practice squad (Greg Orton, Sam McDuffie and Reggie Dunn, for those keeping score at home), but none of them have been with the team longer than a month.

With the Patriots rushing attack carrying the load the past month, the team hasn't called on much from Thompkins/Dobson. In fact, the last game either of them saw a significant role in the offense was the previous matchup against the Broncos, where Thompkins stepped in for an ailing Dobson and caught 6 of his 9 targets for 56 yards.

However, the Patriots ability to survive it's lack of a downfield passing game is extremely dependent on the Patriots continuing to run well. One of the biggest advantages of a successful rushing attack is the ability to stay out of drive-killing third-and-longs. The Patriots did this to perfection against the Colts. Of the 19 third downs they faced, 11 of them were of 3 yards or less. Unsurprisingly, the Pats found success in those situations, converting 7/11 with a mix of power runs and short, precision passing.

In those situations, the Patriots passing game is ideal. Both Edelman and Amendola are reliable tacticians in those short passing zones, using their elite quickness to consistently break open for Tom Brady. It was often said in past years that Tom Brady's short passing connection with Wes Welker was the passing games equivalent of a run, efficiency-wise. Brady has found the same thing, or at least a comparable thing, with the combination of Edelman and Amendola.

However, success was harder to come by in third and long. The Pats faced four third downs of eight or more yards, and while they converted two of them, the other two resulted in the Colts only sacks of Tom Brady.

While third-and-long will always be inherently harder to convert than third-and-short, the Patriots are at a definitive handicap in those situations due to the lack of size amongst their receiving targets. Feisty as they may be, neither Edelman nor Amendola are going to win many jump balls down the field. Without a real receiving threat from the tight end position (sorry Hooman and Mulligan, you guys have been awesome blocking), this leaves the offense in a real bind when they have to throw downfield and pick up yards in a hurry. The Patriots used play action effectively to open things up down the field against Indy, with Danny Amendola's 53 yarder serving as a prime example (I told you LaRon Landry has never seen a play fake he wouldn't bite on), but good luck getting a well-coached defense to bite on the play action on 3rd-and-8.

In short, while missing Thompkins wouldn't necessarily be a killer, it would exacerbate the Patriot's biggest offensive weakness: throwing downfield. This would put more pressure on both the running game to cover up that weakness and the defense to keep the game close enough for a run heavy attack to be palatable. Hopefully, Thompkins is able to pass the concussion protocol and this is all a moot point by Sunday.