AFC Divisional Round Scouting Report: Indianapolis Colts
It's almost here. The Patriots will kick off their playoff push tomorrow night when Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts come to Gillette Stadium. Beyond being a battle between an all time great in Tom Brady and a up-and-coming superstar in Luck, the game will be the latest addition of the longstanding Patriots-Colts rivalry. Lets get right to the matchups that will determine this game.
When the Colts have the ball:
If you're tired of all the talk about Luck this week, stop reading. With Reggie Wayne sidelined and Trent Richardson ineffective, the Colts offense is heavily reliant on Luck to carry them. As we saw last weekend, it's a task the second year quarterback is certainly capable of.
The Colts spent much of the year trying to become a run-heavy, smash mouth type of offense, but have largely abandoned that plan now due to ineffectiveness.Trent Richardson, the #3 overall pick in 2012, was expected to be a difference-maker for them, especially after the Colts traded their own first round pick to acquire him, but T-Rich has decidedly been a bust so far in his Colts career. After averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry in the regular season, Richardson started his postseason career last week with a bad fumble and a benching. It remains to be seen whether Richardson will get an opportunity to redeem himself tomorrow against the Pats shaky run defense.
The Colts have had success this year using Donald Brown as a change of pace guy, both as a runner and catching the ball out of the backfield. Brown had 102 total yards last week, scoring touchdowns both rushing and receiving as part of the Colts furious comeback, and the former UConn star averaged a healthy 5.3 yards per carry for the season. However, the Colts have strictly used Brown as a change-of-pace option, as he has not surpassed 14 carries in any game this season. While the Patriots certainly need to be aware of him, it would be unprecedented for the Colts to hand off to him 20+ times in an attempt to really establish the run.
Instead, expect the Colts to sprinkle in the run to complement Luck and their passing game. After some hiccups in the weeks following the Reggie Wayne injury, the Colts passing offense has come alive recently, with the (re)emergence of TY Hilton being a huge key for the offense.
Hilton has been an interesting case this season. After exploding for back-to-back 100 yard games in the aftermath of Wayne's injury, including 3 touchdowns in a furious Week 9 comeback against Houston, the Colts speedster came down to earth with a thud. The next four games saw Hilton struggle to make an impact as opponents began to focus their coverages on him, culminating with a dismal 2 catch, 7 yard output in a blowout loss to Cincinnati. However, the Colts have made it a point to get Hilton going since then, and his 13 catch, 224 yard, 2 touchdown day against the Chiefs shows what he can do when playing well.
Hilton presents an interesting matchup conundrum for the Patriots secondary. As the Colts top receiver by far, he figures to be taken by Aqib Talib. However, Talib is much more effective against bigger, physical receivers than smaller, shiftier guys like the 5'9" Hilton. Hilton also does most of his damage from the slot, where the Colts like to get him the ball in space on underneath routes, putting him in position to get yards after the catch with his world-class speed. Covering the slot has been Kyle Arrington's role all season, but the Patriots could be playing with fire putting their third best corner on the Colts best receiver.
Whoever gets the assignment of Hilton can expect to be targeted early and often. The Colts do not have good enough weapons to survive a quiet day from him, and thus will almost surely be looking to establish him early. Expect the Patriots to shade a safety wherever he goes, preventing the speedster from getting behind the defense and making the back-breaking plays he made last week.
After Hilton, it's a significant step down for Luck's weapons. Tight end Coby Fleener, Luck's college teammate at Stanford, has all the physical tools to be a great receiving threat but has yet to put it all together and become a consistent playmaker. In spite of this, his 6'6" frame makes him a guy to watch in the red zone, where it will be interesting to see how the Pats opt to cover him. If they opt to let their other corners run with Hilton, we could see Talib body up Fleener as he did against Jimmy Graham and the Saints.
With Darius Heyward-Bey expected to be out with a hamstring injury, the remaining Colts receivers are a group of no-name guys who have been competent enough for Luck to keep the offense going. LaVon Brazill is a speed guy in the mold of Hilton, Da'Rick Rogers is a big (6'3") possession receiver who has flashed some real talent since getting called up to the active roster in December, and Griff Whalen is a smaller, slot-type receiver with a knack for getting open. As for Deion Branch, he barely knows the plays, so it would be very surprising to see him even get on the field Saturday.
The Patriots cornerbacks should be able to hang with these receivers, particularly if guys like Talib and Arrington are healthy after getting extra rest during the bye week, but the Patriots will also have to worry about the threat of Luck's legs. While Luck spends most of his time in the pocket, the former Cardinal has underrated speed and can hurt you with his legs if given a clear lane to run. One of the challenging aspects of this matchup will be covering all of Luck's receivers, including Hilton deep, while still maintaining enough discipline to keep Luck from having clear lanes for easy first downs.
For this reason, it will be important for the Patriots pass rush to maintain rush lane discipline. I wrote yesterday about the how the Patriots can impact the game against a quarterback who was hit a league-high 93 times during the regular season. While Luck is hard to sack due to his athleticism, his offensive line is iffy, and the Patriots could reap serious benefits if they can keep Luck from getting too comfortable in the pocket.
Finally, two keys to stopping the Colts could be turnovers and red zone defense. Despite what you saw last weekend, the Colts were one of the best teams in the league at avoiding turnovers this season. The Colts rarely beat themselves in 2013, as their league-low 14 turnovers and 67 penalties can attest. Winning the turnover battle could be key for the Patriots this week, as their defensive performance is often turnover dependent. However, the Colts do have a weakness in the red zone, where their inability to establish that running game has hurt them. If the Patriots can consistently hold this offense to 3 instead of 7, it will be a boon for them.
When the Patriots have the ball:
NFL games, particularly playoff games, rarely play out exactly how you expect them to on paper. The Colts better hope so, because this is a matchup that absolutely favors the Pats on paper.
As always the Patriots offense success starts and ends with
This is bad news for the Colts, who ranked 25th in the league this year at defending the run. It's been a weakness for this team all year, and figures to be one the Patriots look to exploit on Saturday. With heavy rain and winds forecasted for the game, the conditions could also dictate a heavier emphasis on the run, although rain could also bring up ball-security issues for the powerful but fumble-prone duo of LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley.
If the Patriots can establish the run, it will dramatically open things up for it's passing game. Forcing the Colts to stay in heavier, base personnel could create favorable match ups for the Pats smaller, quicker receiving weapons. Shane Vereen, as always, has the potential to be a huge X factor catching passes out of the backfield, while Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola will look to do their normal damage in the middle of the field.
The Colts face a similar defensive quandry with Edelman as the Pats do with Hilton. Both receivers are clearly their number one option in the passing game, despite being smaller, shiftier slot types. Like the Pats with Talib, the Colts have a number one corner in Vontae Davis who is better suited playing physical, press-man coverage on bigger receivers than trying to keep up with smaller, change-of-direction guys. If the Colts do put Davis on Edelman, he will likely try to physically man-handle the smaller receiver at the line of scrimage; a dangerous tactice if Edelman can break free.
The Colts also come into this game banged up in the secondary. While safety LaRon Landry is expected to play despite suffering a concussion last week, starting cornerback Greg Toler was placed on injured reserve after re-aggravating a nagging groin injury last week against the Chiefs. The ensuing domino effect pushes former Patriot Darius Butler into a starting role, with Cassius Vaughn becoming the third corner. Look for Brady to attack both of these guys, particularly Butler, who was largely a bust during his two seasons in New England.
In order to throw the ball effectively, the Patriots will need to protect Brady from DE Robert Mathis. Mathis is a legitimate candidate for defensive player of the year after finishing 2013 with 19.5 sacks and 8 forced fumbles, and his fumble-producing sack of Alex Smith last week was merely the latest example of his penchant for game-changing, turnover-producing plays. The Colts do a good job of moving Mathis around, meaning that both Nate Solder and Marcus Canon will have to hold up against him. Expect the Patriots to give those two help on most plays, either with a tight end or a chipping back.
Slowing down Mathis is yet another incentive for the Pats to establish the running game. A one-dimensional, pass-heavy attack will allow him to tee off on Brady, using his explosive speed to jump the snap count. If Mathis has to respect the run, it will become much more realistic of an assignment to contain him.
Furthermore, establishing the run could open up the possibility of play action down the field. Both Colts safeties are better at defending the run than the pass, with Landry particularly being vulnerable to play action. If the play action can give Brady some time to let routes develop, there will be some winnable matchups, particularly Kenbrell Thompkins against either Butler or Vaughn on the outside.
Special Teams:
Special teams could have additional importance in this game due to the weather. If the rain makes it difficult to move the ball on offense, field position takes on additional importance. The Patriots kicking game has been superb this year, with both Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen consistently putting the Patriots in favorable position. The Colts have been solid if unspectacular both in the return and kicking games, with the ageless Adam Vinatieri having yet another good year. However, one area the Pats could do some damage is with their own return game. The Colts allowed 13.7 yards per punt return this year, including a touchdown. If Julian Edelman gets a chance to field one cleanly in the rain, he might have a chance to do some damage.
Injuries:
This is a matchup between two of the teams that have done the best job of overcoming injuries in the NFL. We all know the story of the Patriots, with Brandon Spikes merely the latest to join Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly and Sebastien Vollmer on IR. However, the Colts have also seen Luck's top two receivers (Reggie Wayne and TE Dwayne Allen), two solid running backs (Vick Ballard and Ahmad Bradshaw) and starters at corner (Toler), guard (former Patriot Donald Thomas) and linebacker (Pat Angerer) go down for the season. As for this week, the Colts find themselves banged up in the secondary, with Vontae Davis playing through a groin injury, while the Patriots are down to Kenbrell Thompkins as their X receiver with Aaron Dobson likely out.
Coaching:
Bill Belichick gets the checkmark here, but his counterpart Chuck Pagano is far from a pushover. We all know the story of #Chuckstrong, with the head coach making an inspiring comeback from cancer treatment, but Pagano has proven this year to simply be an effective head coach, regardless of his incredible, off-the-field story. A former defensive coordinator in Baltimore, Pagano has molded his Colts into a disciplined, resilient team that always plays hard. Belichick probably has more talent at his disposal this year, but Pagano has done an impressive job with a roster still building up after 2011's two win campaign.
Other Intangibles:
Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton gave the Patriots some bulletin board material yesterday when he made a not-so-subtle reference to Spygate in his press conference. Between that and the Sporting News ranking Brady dead-last of the remaining 8 playoff quarterbacks, the Patriots will have plenty of extra reasons to be fired up for this one.
Furthermore, the Patriots will be playing at Gillette Stadium, where they are a perfect 8-0 this year. They'll also have the advantage of having played in the driving rain Week 17 against Buffalo, giving them solid preparation for the conditions expected for tomorrow.
