Patriots Draft Needs: Positional review- Safety
 |
| Do you trust Duron Harmon? Jared Wickerham/Getty Images |
Currently under contract:
Devin McCourty (signed through 2014)
Duron Harmon (signed through 2016)
Patrick Chung (signed through 2014)
Nate Ebner (signed through 2015)
Tavon Wilson (signed through 2015)
Kanorris Davis (signed through 2015)
Need: Short-term: moderate, Long-term: moderate
Postional outlook:
It all depends on your feelings on Duron Harmon, last year's third round pick. McCourty is set as the starter at free safety, where he emerged as one of the game's best best at the position last year. In fact, the Pats would be wise to get a long-term extension done with the impending free agent now, as his value could balloon from playing alongside Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.
However, Harmon is currently penciled-in as the starter next to McCourty, a thought that has some Patriots fans insisting on an upgrade. The thought of Harmon as a starter doesn't bother me, as he played very well as a rookie and displayed good instincts at the position. He may not have Pro Bowl potential, but there's nothing from his 2013 film to suggest he won't be able to get the job done this year.
What scares me is the lack of depth behind Harmon. As things currently stand, an injury or regression by Harmon would put Patrick Chung on the field, a thought that offers little comfort. After Chung, the Patriots depth consists of special teamers Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner and Kanorris Davis, with Wilson being a candidate for release after failing to develop so far despite being a second round pick.
Because of the uncertainty surrounding the position, I'd prefer that they supplement it with a veteran rather than an unproven rookie. I've argued for signing Kerry Rhodes, a proven playmaker and former All Pro, on this site many a time, although he still remains on the market without getting so much as a whiff in free agency. Steve Gregory could be a candidate to return on a cheaper deal, and his leadership and smarts would serve the team well in continuing to mentor Harmon.
While the Patriots scheme doesn't have much distinction between the free and strong safety positions (both players are expected to be able to both cover and show in run support), many feel like the team would benefit from adding a physical presence in the safety who can intimidate receivers coming over the middle. Adding a player like that has obvious benefits, especially with conference rival Denver so reliant on working the short middle zones of the passing game. However, I'd caution that many of the Patriots biggest draft blunders have come when they've prioritized hitting over coverage ability at the position (Brandon Meriweather, Chung and Tavon Wilson all stand as examples), and that having a guy who can lay the lumber is less helpful if said player is frequently out of position.
With that said, if the opportunity arises to add a significant talent upgrade to the position, they'll certainly consider it. Here's a look at their options.
Ideal fit: Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois
 |
| Andrew Weber/US Press Wire |
If they are looking for an opening day starter, Ward looks like the best bet in this year's draft. Hasean Clinton Dix and Calvin Pryor are both expected to be long gone by the time the Pats first pick comes up at 29, and it's debateable whether Ward will be there either, as his stock has grown throughout the pre-draft process. If he is, he'll draw consideration as a prospect ready to step up and contribute right away.
Ward is built like a cornerback, but he was listed as a strong safety in college and played like one. He has tremendous range and is fearless in run support, where he quickly diagnoses plays and flies downhill to make tackles. He's not a classic intimidator in vein of Rodney Harrison, but he certainly doesn't shy away from the physical aspects of the game and will make the occasional big hit.
He's at his best playing downhill, but Ward also has the coverage skills to be a factor in the deep zones as well. He's a fluid, flexible athlete who looks very natural in his backpedal and sudden change of direction skills. He showed the ability to cover the slot in college, and has the athleticism to continue in that role in the pros. His 38" vertical leap helps him overcome his lack of size (5'11", 193) in coverage, and he's a smart, energetic player whose excellent awareness and angles keep him in position; he rarely gives up big plays. He also flashed potential as a playmaker his senior season by snagging seven interceptions.
The only glaring knock on Ward is his lack of prototypical size, but the Pats would be foolish to weigh that higher than his excellent performance on tape (he confirmed at the Senior Bowl that his production was far more than just a product of weak competition). The first round could be a little high for him in my book, considering the talent that will be available there at other positions, but he could be a fit in the second round. You can never have too many guys with coverage ability in the modern NFL, and Ward would give the team another safety option with range and athleticism. He has the potential to start and contribute right away as a rookie.
Other potential fits:
Terrance Brooks, Florida State
 |
| Brooks is a rangy athlete in coverage |
At 5'11", 198 pounds, Brooks is a bit smaller than Bucannon, but he plays bigger than his listed size. Despite that cornerback build, Brooks is fearless and aggressive in run support. In fact, the Seminoles often took advantage of his physicality by playing him in a hybrid safety/linebacker role. He also makes up for his lack of height with a 38" vertical leap that gives him a fighting chance on any jump ball.
He also has all the intangibles you want from the position. Brooks proved to be durable, tough and reliable at Florida State. He embraces the physicality of the position and has a "go get em" attitude that will endear him to a coaching staff. He also projects as an immediate contributor on special teams.
Despite the obvious positives, there are a few flaws here that are expected to push Brooks back into the third/fourth round range. He'll drive coaches nuts occasionally by missing tackles, often by going for the knockout blow and failing to wrap up. He also has poor hands, and dropped several potential interceptions last year. Finally, the concussion he suffered in 2013 leads to some concerns as to whether he can stay healthy playing with his aggressive style at the NFL level, something that's proven to be an issue with similarly built safeties like Chung and Louis Delmas.
Those flaws are enough to prevent me from spending an early round pick on him, but Brooks could become a nice value in the middle rounds. He's an instant special teams contributor, would upgrade the Pats talent level and coverage ability at the position (at least depth-wise) and has starter upside with a little coaching and fine tuning. That's not a bad package at all for a fourth round pick.
Craig Loston, LSU
Another candidate for the "big intimidating strong safety" role. At 5'11" and 217 pounds, Loston is enormous for the position, and he's predictably a big hitter who excels in the box in run support. He has excellent instincts for the position, and does a great job of buzzing into the flat to blow up short passes and screens.
While his hitting is his calling card, Loston is better in coverage than you'd expect for a player his size. He has enough athleticism to stick with tight ends in man coverage, and has good recognition of route combinations. In fact, his football IQ is one of Loston's best qualities: he was the vocal leader of LSU's secondary, often barking out assignments and adjustments. Check out his play against Clemson's explosive offense in their 2012 bowl game for evidence (Loston is #6).
He's also another guy who projects as an instant contributor on special teams, where he excelled at LSU as a gunner.
All of this sounds great, but Loston's biggest red flag is his injury history. He was a medical redshirt as a freshman thanks to a hand injury that required surgery, and he's since missed time each of the past three seasons thanks to a wide variety of injuries (concussion, hyperextended right leg, toe and groin to name a few of them). He also proved to be a quick healer, never missing more than three games in a season, but that inability to avoid getting banged up is very concerning, especially considering the leap he's about to take in terms of the size and physicality of his opponents.
The injuries certainly make him a risk, but Loston has far too many good qualities to simply remove from a draft board. He's currently projected by most to slide into the fourth/fifth round range, where he could provide excellent value as a immediate special teams contributor with starter upside.
Brock Vereen, Minnesota
 |
| Turns out Shane's little brother can play some ball too |
An excellent athlete, Vereen split time between corner and safety with the Gophers. As a result, he excels in coverage, where he has the agility to turn and run with receivers. He has good closing range, an important skill for any safety, and has excellent instincts in zone coverage. He's rarely out of position, takes good angles and makes quick, decisive decisions.
Vereen also possesses excellent intangibles which will endear him to any coaching staff. He's a tough, hard-working, high-motor player who was respected by all in the Gophers locker room. He was also a smart, instinctive leader on the field, who was often charged with aligning the defense and calling out adjustments in the secondary.
However, Vereen is the type of prospect that often falls farther than he should because of a lack of ideal measurables. At just 6'0" and 199, he's undersized for the position, and he lacks the length to compensate. He could have trouble dealing with some of the league's bigger tight ends. He isn't an impact hitter, although he's more sound as a fundamental tackler than some of the other players on this list. He also has poor hands, as evidenced by his very low total of four career interceptions, and is limited as a playmaker.
While these limitations give Vereen a lower ceiling than some of his peers at the position, there's a ton to like on tape. Contrary to popular opinion, the most important aspect of the safety position is still pass coverage, and Vereen would represent an upgrade in that department over the likes of Chung and Wilson. He won't wow you, but he'll also stay in position and do his job. That reliability is very important for a position that serves as the last line of defense, and it could make Vereen an attractive prospect in fourth round range.
Potential reach: Deone Bucannon, Washington State
If the Patriots do want to add an intimidating hitter to their secondary, they'll almost certainly give Bucannon a long look. The Washington State safety is widely considered the biggest hitter amongst this year's safeties, and has gotten a lot of hype as the best "big safety" in the draft, especially with the league still buzzing from the impact Kam Chancellor had in the Super Bowl.
At 6'1" and 211 pounds, Bucannon isn't Chancellor sized, but he's plenty big enough and brings explosive athleticism to the position. He proved this at the combine, showing very well in the 40 yard dash (4.49 seconds), vertical leap (36.5 "), bench press (19 reps), broad jump (125") and three cone drill (6.96 seconds). He also has impressive length (32 3/8" arms) that benefits him in coverage.
Bucannon's explosive hitting will be his calling card in the NFL, but he also boast an impressive resume as a playmaker in college. The three-time captain showed excellent ball skills at Washington, picking off 15 passes in his career, including six in his senior season. He also proved to be not only a big but also opportunistic hitter, with seven career forced fumbles.
Those numbers are all exciting, but Bucannon has some glaring weaknesses that should be cause for concern. He's clearly a player better served attacking downhill than turning and running in coverage, and struggles when counted on in man coverage. His overaggression occasionally gets the best of him, leading him to overrun plays and miss tackles. He also has discipline lapses on the field, both physical (he was suspended for the first half of a 2012 game after a headshot on a defenseless receiver) and mental.
Most troubling are his tendency to give up big plays due to taking poor angles, a flaw that doomed Meriweather and Chung here. The top responsibility of a safety is to prevent big plays, and the Patriots have seen poor geometry from their safeties doom them far too often in the past five years. It's simply very difficult to play team defense when you can't rely on your safeties to be in proper position, and poor fundamental safety play can quickly undo the good work put in by the other 10 defenders on the field.
None of those red flags are things you want to hear about a player who would be drafted to be part of your last line of defense. Safety is a very important position on the field, and the Patriots saw first hand in recent years just how much poor safety play can impact a defense. Bucannon has exciting potential as a hitter and playmaker, but his flaws suggest a very risky, boom-or-bust prospect, who could give up as many big plays as he makes.
As exciting as the upside is, would this be the best usage of a second round pick? Would Bucannon help the team more than adding a instant starter at center like Marcus Martin? Would he be a better addition than a defensive linemen (there will be plenty of quality options available on Day 2) or a starting tight end? This year's draft is too deep for me to want to make a risky pick that early, unless the upside and value is too good to pass up. Considering the alternatives that will likely be available in the second round, I'd hold off on Bucannon.
Potential sleeper: Lonnie Ballentine, Memphis
 |
| Ballentine has intriguing upside for a late round pick. Mark Weber/AP Photo |
Those kind of measurables will usually get a guy drafted in the early rounds, but Ballentine is a very raw player who would be drafted as a project. He didn't diagnose plays quickly or decisively in college, something that helped negate his stunning athleticism. He also isn't the quickest changing directions out of his breaks, an area where his imposing size might hurt him. He's clearly much more comfortable running in a straight line than backpedaling, and his poor hands have negated his potential as a playmaker so far. Finally, while he'll deliver a big blow once in a while, Ballentine isn't a strong tackler overall, and could really use a crash course in fundamentals.
With that being said, there aren't too many guys around in the sixth/seventh round range with athletic talent like Ballentine, and that is the ideal range to take risks on projects with athletic upside. Ballentine would instantly contribute on special teams, and he has tantalizing potential if he takes to coaching and figures things out. He's risky, but the success rate of picks in that range is very low anyways. Why not take a shot on a player with his upside there?
High risk, high reward: Jonathan Dowling, Western Kentuckey
Dowling is a high upside prospect with many physical similarities to Ballentine, but he comes with a long list of red flags that should give any GM pause. There's no question that the talent is there, but there's a high bust factor here for on and off-field reasons.
Lets start with the positives. It's easy to see why Dowling was once one of the nation's top safety prospects as a prep, as he possesses ideal length and range for the position. At 6'3", 190 pounds, Dowling possesses a long, lanky build (he'll actually need to add some muscle in the weight room at the next level), but the quality that stands out the most for him is his length. One thing he does with those 33 1/8" arms is produce turnovers; he has 9 interceptions and 8 forced fumbles in the last two seasons.
Dowling's other top-notch attribute is his range. He's a long strider who covers ground quickly, something which helps him defend the deep ball. Recovery speed is one of the most important attributes for a safety, and Dowling has it in spades. Despite his slight frame, he's also a guy who looks to make big hits, and he delivered a few at Western Kentuckey. His explosive athleticism pops on film, and he will make "wow" plays.
However, he has several major holes in his game that the Patriots are all too familiar with. He has mediocre instincts and often takes poor angles the ball. Despite said mediocre instincts, he also loves to freelance and roam the field, a tendency that drove Patriots coaches nuts about Brandon Meriweather. It's a strategy that occasionally leads to interceptions but also to lots of big plays going the other way.
The Meriweather similarities extend to his tackling, which is poor. Per NFL.com's Nolan Nawrocki:
Shoddy tackler with poor fundamentals -- hits too high, ankle-bites low or launches himself and whiffs.
Not good. He even manages to match Meriweather in earning a one game suspension for a dangerous, head-hunting hit back in 2012. The big hits are there, but his tough guy persona certainly doesn't extend to his run defense, where his skinny frame made him a liability at Western Kentuckey.
These on the field flaws would be enough to remove him from my draft board, even before taking his off the field issues into consideration. Dowling was originally a highly-touted recruit of the Florida Gators, but he was such a piece of work that Urban Meyer kicked him off the team in November of his freshman year. Yes, the same Florida program that swept Aaron Hernandez's transgressions under the rug wanted no part of this guy after less than a full season. He was reportedly combative and volatile with Meyer's coaching staff, and was also getting in trouble for the amount of classes he was skipping. Again, this is Florida we're talking about.
This led to his transferring to Western Kentuckey, where he made a lot of big plays but gave up his fair share as well during his two years as a starter. While he got the chance to play at Western Kentuckey, he still didn't manage to shake the label of being somewhat "uncoachable", and he clearly hasn't been receptive so far to any attempts by coaches to shore up his undisciplined play.
I'll pass.
