Patriots Draft Needs: Positional review- Offensive Tackle
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| Could Turner be added to the offensive tackle mix? dR. Brent Smith/ AP |
As the 2014 NFL draft rapidly approaches, we're turning our focus here at PatriotsLife towards the draft. Keeping that in mind, I'll be reviewing a different position of the Patriots roster each weekday, looking over their level of need at that position and some potential draft fits specific to their needs.Today we take a look at offensive tackle, a position that looks set on paper but could be a bigger need than you realize.
Position: Offensive tackle
Currently under contract:
Nate Solder (signed through 2014)
Sebastien Vollmer (signed through 2016)
Marcus Cannon (signed through 2014)
Markus Zusevics (signed through 2015)
R.J. Mattes (signed through 2015)
Jordan Devey (signed through 2015)
Need: Short-term: Moderate to low, Long-term: Moderate to high
Positional outlook:
As far as this coming season goes, tackle is near the bottom of the Patriots needs. The Patriots invested early-round picks in Nate Solder and Sebastien Vollmer, and both have developed into excellent starters. They also bring back Marcus Cannon, who was solid filling in at right tackle after Vollmer's broken leg. Vollmer possesses the versatility to fill in at left tackle if need be. It's one position they appear to be set at.
However, the long-term picture gets murkier. Much is riding on Nate Solder, as the Patriots have a rapidly approaching deadline on May 3rd to decide whether to pick up their option for a fifth year on his rookie contract. The option is the average of the third to 25th highest salaries at his position. In Solder's case, because all offensive linemen are grouped together, this would come out to about $7.4 million.
Will the Pats pick that option up? It's a fairly high number, but probably right in the ballpark of what Solder would land on the open market. There's no way around it; if the Patriots want to keep Solder around after this year, they're going to have to pay up.
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| Will Solder and Mankins be back after this year? AP Photo |
If that concussion history is making the Patriots hesitant to commit to keeping Solder as their franchise left tackle next year, they could find themselves needing to find his successor sooner rather than later. If the Patriots think they can land that guy a year early, it would give him a year to develop before taking over the all important job of protecting Tom Brady's blindside, just as Solder did in 2011. It will also prevent them from having a glaring need at tackle in next year's draft (Cannon is also a free agent after this season).
While the Patriots don't need to add a tackle this season, doing so even for depth purposes could bring them the additional benefit of freeing Cannon up for a move to guard, where many scouts believed he was better suited to play back in the 2011 draft. Cannon has intriguing potential inside as a big athletic mauler, and he could potentially be an upgrade from Dan Connolly, a 32 year old guard with two consecutive years of declining play and a $4 million cap hit.
The Patriots pass protection struggled last year, with Tom Brady joining Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer as the only quarterbacks in the top five in the league in pressures faced both in under 2 seconds and from 2.1 to 2.5 seconds according to ProFootballFocus. This was largely due to the issues on the interior of their line, where Logan Mankins, Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly all turned in subpar seasons relative to expectations. Adding a tackle would insure them against potentially losing both Solder and Cannon in 2015, but it could also help them address the need to upgrade their interior line this coming season.
Ideal fit: Billy Turner, North Dakota State
Turner isn't expected to go until the late second/third round range, as there are six-seven tackles from BCS level schools ranked ahead of him in most projections. However, Turner was dominant in four years as a starter at the FCS level, and he's continued to impress against a higher level of competition in the pre-draft process. There's a lot to like here, and many believe he has the talent to develop into a Pro Bowler with the right coaching.
Turner has all of the characteristics you like to see in a top lineman. He's big (6'5", 316) and athletic, equally adept at mirroring in pass protection and reaching blocks at the second level. He also has the nastiness you like to see in an offensive lineman, with an eagerness to finish blocks right to the whistle that recalls Logan Mankins. He's already got a great initial punch and has the frame to get even stronger.
Turner's versatility brings him additional value. He played both tackle spots at North Dakota State, where he was a dominant, four-year starter, but he also didn't look out of place at guard at the Senior Bowl. In fact, some in the scouting community think Turner would be a better fit at guard, where his athleticism would be a huge asset, especially given the recent trend of moving speedy edge rushers inside to victimize guards.
The knocks on Turner (other than the level of competition he faced in college) are all technique-related issues that could be corrected with proper coaching. He has a bad habit of bending at the waist rather than the hips, something that will quickly get exposed against NFL defenders. He also occasionally gets himself out of position by lunging, and could use a year in an NFL weight training program, as his lower body is less defined than his upper body.
Still, the positives clearly outweigh the negatives with Turner, and the upside is obvious. It's not hard to see a scenario where he's one of the best values on the board for the Patriots, especially if he falls into the third round. The question will be whether the value is great enough to elevate him over prospects at positions of higher need.
Other potential fits:
James Hurst, North Carolina
Value pick alert! Hurst was a five star recruit who started from day one at Chapel Hill, starting a school record 49 games at left tackle in his four year career and holding his own against the likes of Jadaveon Clowney (or at least against 2013 cruise-control Clowney). However, a broken leg suffered in UNC's bowl game has combined with Hurst having a lower ceiling than some of his peers to push him into the fourth round range, where he could be an absolute steal for someone.
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| Hurst has starter potential, and he could be available in the fourth round |
Lets take a look at the negatives first. Hurst's skillset is good but not great, and limits his ceiling as a player. At 6'5", 295, he's a bit undersized at tackle, and he lacks the ideal athleticism to be a shutdown guy in pass protection against speed rushers. Some in the scouting community believe his lack of elite athleticism will force him to the right side in the pros, even though he was good enough in college to keep 2013 third round pick Brennan Williams on the right side.
However, Hurst is a guy who has consistently outplayed his measurables. He's a smart player who gets the absolute most out of his ability, using angles and technique to give himself an extra edge against pass rushers. He's also a tough, physical player who plays to whistle, and a rock solid run blocker who is surprisingly good at reaching defenders at the second level.
Hurst may not have sleeper Pro Bowl potential like Turner, but most scouts agree he projects as a starting caliber NFL tackle. If he's there for the Pats in the fourth round, the value could be too good to pass up.
Matt Patchan, Boston College
Patchan's obvious talent make him a high-upside prospect. At 6'6", 302 with long arms, he's got an NFL tackle's body, with the natural athleticism to mirror in pass protection. He plays with excellent balance and technique, and does a good job of using his hands to steer his opponents away from the quarterback once engaged. He also does a good job in the running game, where he fires off the ball with power and uses his athleticism well to reach moving targets at the second level.
Despite this, a troubling history of injuries has relegated Patchan to the fifth round range according to most projections. He was originally a highly-touted recruit by Urban Meyer at Florida, when he was amongst future top 10 NFL picks Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil as the top ranked tackles in his recruiting class, but he was seemingly snakebitten in Gainesville. This weird string of injuries started in 2008, when Patchan was shot in his left shoulder as a bystander in a Brandon, Florida park. He then missed significant time in 2009 (torn ACL), 2010 (fractured wrist) and 2012 (torn pectoral). Oh, and he was injured not once but twice in scooter accidents at Gainesville, one which also got him hit by a car. If anyone knows what it feels like to be Wile E. Coyote, it's Matt Patchan.
However, Patchan was granted a sixth season of eligibility by the NCAA thanks to his missed time and he full took advantage. Following Head Coach Steve Addazio to BC, Patchan was finally healthy in 2013, and he put out some good tape during his year with the Eagles. He also performed well at the Senior Bowl, flashing the talent that once had him seemingly on track for stardom. The injuries are certainly something to be wary off, but Patchan will likely be one of the more talented prospects left on the board by the time the fifth round rolls around. He's a gamble, but one that could have a lucrative pay-off if he leaves his rotten luck behind him.
Justin Britt, Missouri
Another potential value pick, Britt's current projection of the fifth/seventh round range seems very low considering his skillset and production in the SEC. Like Patchan, some of this is due to injury concerns, as Britt suffered a torn ACL in 2012 and was also held out of spring practice last year with a fractured foot. However, the upside his high enough to make Britt a potential steal if he falls to this range.
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| Britt could be a steal in the later rounds |
Britt could certainly be coached up some, as there are some technical flaws in his game that occasionally hurt him in pass protection. He also isn't adept at reaching moving targets in the second level, a flaw that would hurt him in New England's blocking schemes. However, there's a lot of raw talent here, especially for a player expected to be available on Day 3 of the draft. It's rare to see a All SEC left tackle available in the sixth round, and the value could be too good to pass up in that range.
Potential reach: Cameron Fleming, Stanford
Fleming is a big-bodied (6'5", 323) tackle who decided to declare after his junior year. While some think he may have benefited from another year in school, his size and experience in a pro-style offense in the Pac-12 looks like it will be enough to get him drafted in the middle rounds, with projections ranging from the second to the fourth.
In my opinion, that's too high for a prospect with the flaws Fleming has. His athleticism limits him in pass protection, where he struggles against speed rushers. Those athletic limitations are exacerbated by fundamental flaws that will be exploited by NFL pass rushers. He tends to come out of his stance too high, and often has issues with his balance. He also has a tendency to drop his head when making contact, leaving him vulnerable to swim moves.
Fleming was able to get away with these weaknesses in college, but they could get him moved inside to guard at the next level. Fleming has the size to work there, but he's never played the position before, with all of his 38 career starts coming at right tackle. He also doesn't display the ideal nastiness scouts like to see from an interior lineman.
Luke Lucas, Kansas State
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| Lucas's size could be worth a look |
However, Lucas has tantalizing measurables that appear to be worth a late-round flyer as a developmental prospect. Few tackles boast his combination of size (6'8", 316) and length. His 88 1/8" wingspan led all combine participants, and he uses those long arms to engulf pass rushers. His foot speed isn't great, but good enough to get by at tackle at the next level. His left tackle experience and right tackle size make him a candidate to become a swing tackle in the pros.
Simply put, Lucas needs a year in an NFL weight training program. He needs to improve his strength to reach his potential at the next level, especially if he gets moved to right tackle, and he has room on his frame to add considerable muscle. He could also stand to get coached up on his fundamentals, as there are some technique flaws (knee bend, hand usage) that need to get corrected.
However, the upside is there, and that's all you're looking for in a late-round, developmental project. The Patriots have had a lot of success developing their late round and undrafted free agent linemen (albeit with Dante Scarnecchia still coaching), and Lucas could be an intriguing player to try mold into something.
High risk, high reward: Seantrel Henderson, Miami (Fl)
Henderson is a textbook example of a high risk, high reward prospect. His physical talent is undeniable, as Henderson has a rare combination of size (6'7", 331), power and athleticism to make scouts drool. It's a skillset that made Henderson one of the most highly touted recruits in the nation just a few years ago, when he was called "a cross between Johnathan Ogden and Orlando Pace" and "probably the most polished lineman of the past decade".
However, a myriad of issues prevented Henderson from realizing his potential at Miami. There were injuries, including a back surgery after his freshman year and a concussion after a car accident, caused when Henderson ran a red light while driving with an expired license. There were three separate suspensions, which Henderson says were due to testing positive for marijuana. Finally, there was inconsistent play that saw him earn both a benching and honorable mention All ACC honors in 2013.
Despite these flaws, Henderson probably could have elevated his stock with good performances in the pre-draft process. However, he's done just the opposite, putting forth inconsistent performances at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine. He then turned off scouts at his pro day, where he failed to complete what scouts described as an underwhelming workout due to dehydration.
As a result, he's expected to fall into the fourth/fifth round range, where his raw talent could be tantalizing to a team confident they can get him to realize his considerable potential. However, the red flags are numerous and glaring, and Henderson has done little to show he's on the verge of getting it together. I'd stay away.
