PatriotsLife Mailbag: Panic in New England?
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| Concerns over the struggling offensive line dominate our first ever mailbag. Jessica Rinaldi/Boston Globe |
Edward, Michael, no doubt the offensive line is the biggest concern facing the team right now. I'll address a few certain points here, starting with Edward on the offensive line rotation. While I don't think it excuses the poor play of established veterans like Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder, I agree that this group will benefit greatly from some continuity going forward. While most of the struggles have been with individual play, communication errors have certainly exacerbated the breakdowns. I strongly believe that the best five man group on the current roster is Solder at left tackle, Marcus Cannon at left guard, Bryan Stork at center, Dan Connolly at right guard and Vollmer at right tackle. The sooner they get that group playing together, the better IMO, and we might have seen the start of that with Stork's entry late in the Raiders game.
As for the playcalling, that has obviously been drastically affected by the line's ineffectiveness. Since the Miami game, we've seen much more heavy packages, including the usage of rookie tackle Cameron Fleming as a 300 pound "tight end", to try to establish control at the line of scrimmage. As Michael notes, they've also run plenty of plays designed to get the ball out of Brady's hands as quickly as possible, with quite a few of them resulting in Julian Edelman trying to manufacture yards in the open field.
The issue has been that the line play has been poor enough to negate much of the benefits from the "training wheels" the playcalling has put on the line in recent weeks. Simply put, pressure has come often and quickly enough to disrupt even the quick hitting plays designed to negate a pass rush. For an example, see the failed third and goal attempt to Danny Amendola last week, where Brady has to rush the throw on a quick out because Oakland's Antonio Smith beat Cannon almost instantly off the snap. Furthermore, the extra beef hasn't particularly helped the running game generate enough extra push. They struggled to get the ground game going against Oakland's league worst run defense, and it took Stevan Ridley 25 carries to grind out 101 yards against the Vikings. It's a big drop off from a team that was very good on the ground last year.
Furthermore, said "training wheels" have limited the offense in other ways. You can only have 11 men on the field, and devoting an extra spot or two for blocking is limiting the opportunities for many of Brady's underutilized secondary targets. Tim Wright wasn't acquired to be an afterthought in the offense, but he's played a grand total of 13 snaps in the past two weeks due to the need for extra blockers. On the other hand, Brandon LeFell's ability as a blocker has likely kept him on the field despite making few plays as a receiver and committing several bone-headed penalties.
Finally, the inability to trust that O-line to maintain any protection for Brady has essentially eliminated the deep ball from the offense in the past few weeks. I suspect that played a significant role in Aaron Dobson being a surprise healthy scratch last week, as the team isn't in the position to capitalize on Dobson's skillset as a downfield threat.
As for the playcalling, that has obviously been drastically affected by the line's ineffectiveness. Since the Miami game, we've seen much more heavy packages, including the usage of rookie tackle Cameron Fleming as a 300 pound "tight end", to try to establish control at the line of scrimmage. As Michael notes, they've also run plenty of plays designed to get the ball out of Brady's hands as quickly as possible, with quite a few of them resulting in Julian Edelman trying to manufacture yards in the open field.
The issue has been that the line play has been poor enough to negate much of the benefits from the "training wheels" the playcalling has put on the line in recent weeks. Simply put, pressure has come often and quickly enough to disrupt even the quick hitting plays designed to negate a pass rush. For an example, see the failed third and goal attempt to Danny Amendola last week, where Brady has to rush the throw on a quick out because Oakland's Antonio Smith beat Cannon almost instantly off the snap. Furthermore, the extra beef hasn't particularly helped the running game generate enough extra push. They struggled to get the ground game going against Oakland's league worst run defense, and it took Stevan Ridley 25 carries to grind out 101 yards against the Vikings. It's a big drop off from a team that was very good on the ground last year.
Furthermore, said "training wheels" have limited the offense in other ways. You can only have 11 men on the field, and devoting an extra spot or two for blocking is limiting the opportunities for many of Brady's underutilized secondary targets. Tim Wright wasn't acquired to be an afterthought in the offense, but he's played a grand total of 13 snaps in the past two weeks due to the need for extra blockers. On the other hand, Brandon LeFell's ability as a blocker has likely kept him on the field despite making few plays as a receiver and committing several bone-headed penalties.
Finally, the inability to trust that O-line to maintain any protection for Brady has essentially eliminated the deep ball from the offense in the past few weeks. I suspect that played a significant role in Aaron Dobson being a surprise healthy scratch last week, as the team isn't in the position to capitalize on Dobson's skillset as a downfield threat.
@therealnedbrady @PatriotsLife is Tom Brady going to keep being outplayed by defensive coordinators?
— westsidesteez (@SawyerStefan) September 24, 2014
@therealnedbrady @PatriotsLife will tom Brady ever return to his normal form this season and terrorize defences like usual?
— Varun (@v_krish2) September 24, 2014
I tried to answer this question, but before my fingers could touch the keyboard an angry 300 pound man charged at me and body-slammed me to the ground. Needless to say, that made it difficult to do my job.
I don't understand the early backlash against Brady, who has played as well as you can expect considering the less than ideal circumstances. This isn't to say Brady's been perfect, he's certainly missed some throws, but the amount of pressure (and more importantly, the speed it has been coming with) has made it impossible to run the Patriots timing-based offense the way it's meant to be run. The struggles of the offense haven't been scheme-based, as @SawyerStefan insinuates with that defensive coordinators comment. They've been based on guys like Marcus Cannon, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Jordan Devey getting their butts kicked by the guys lined up across from them.
Despite this, Brady still hasn't thrown an interception, and has made some excellent throws on the rare occasions he's allowed to actually scan the field and go through his progressions. Have Brady and Peyton Manning swap places and watch what happens to their respective numbers. Trust me, Brady is the least of the Patriots problems right now.
Will that translate to a return to Brady's typical statistical dominance? If the line improves it's play, then yes I think Brady's numbers will spike up once again. If not, he'll continue to be limited by what the offense is capable of.
I said no to Incognito when the idea first surfaced following the Logan Mankins trade, and I still say no. Incognito's baggage speaks for itself; he had earned his league-wide reputation for being a terrible human being long before Jonathan Martin was even in the NFL, but Incognito also isn't a fit for New England's scheme. The Patriots value athleticism in their offensive lineman more than most teams, as they run a lot of stretch and screen plays that require linemen to be able to pull effectively and make reach blocks at the second level against faster, smaller linebackers and safeties. Incognito is a good, mauling run blocker, but he's also a lumbering plodder who would be a fish out of water in the Patriots scheme. Even in these times of need, I don't think it's worth the trouble of bringing Incognito into this young locker room. Then again, the Pats once traded for noted terrible person Albert Haynesworth, so who knows.
@therealnedbrady @PatriotsLife do you think the offensive line will get better as the season progresses?
— Matt Clark (@mostlikelymattC) September 24, 2014
As a matter of fact I do, Matt, and not simply because there's no where to go but up. For starters, I don't think Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder will continue to play this poorly. They've both proven to be good players in this league, and short of a Monstars-esque loss of their talent, I believe they'll play better as the season goes on.
I also think Marcus Cannon will improve as he gains more experience and build up a comfort level at guard. Cannon was projected by many as a pro guard when coming out of TCU, but the big man has played tackle for most of his career. There's always a learning curve attached to switching positions, especially when that position change comes two weeks before the start of the regular season, and in Cannon's case that's accentuated by a switch from the right to left side of the line. It's impossible to project how Cannon will be playing at the end of the year, but it's hard to imagine he won't benefit from more reps at his new position.
Finally, I think Bryan Stork will step in sooner rather than later and give this offensive line a boost. Stork was an excellent center in college, and has the potential to bring the same stabilizing presence to the line as a rookie that Dan Koppen did 11 years ago. Furthermore, Stork stepping into that starting center role would help the team improve at two spots, as Dan Connolly is a far better option at right guard than either Jordan Devey or Josh Kline.
Jeffrey, you're right, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. "Balance" was one of the buzzwords following the Minnesota game, and it could refer to either Brady's ball distribution or the run-heavy play calling. While establishing the run is never a bad thing, the Pats offense would ideally be close to an even mix of run and pass, keeping the defense on their toes at all times. The Pats tried to accomplish this against Oakland, rushing 32 times to compliment their 37 pass attempts, but as their 2.4 yards per carry indicates, they never generated enough push to get anything going on the ground. "Running to set up the pass" only works if the opponent needs to dedicate extra resources towards stopping the run, and that simply wasn't the case against the Raiders.
Au contraire, Tricia, I actually think the defense has been more aggressive, but the results have shown up far more often against the run. We've seen far more eight man fronts, with Patrick Chung often sneaking into the box as a de facto extra linebacker, and the Pats have been far more comfortable sending guys like Jerod Mayo or Dont'a Hightower downhill into the line so far this year. I attribute this to the improvements in the secondary; trust in the back end of the defense allows any defensive coordinator to get more aggressive with the front seven.
As for the pass rush, it hasn't stood out to me as a glaring strength or weakness so far, especially when factoring in the effects of scheme. Remember, said rookie quarterback was throwing mostly dink and dunk routes on three step drops, quick hitting-plays designed to get the ball out of his hand before any pass rush can get to him. While Carr did make some nice throws, including some tough contested catches by players like Andre Holmes, I'd be hard-pressed to say our defense made him "look like a Pro Bowler"; they did hold the Raiders to 9 total points.
The Dolphins game was also affected by scheme, as the Patriots were essentially playing a 3-2 for much of the game and flooding the field with defensive backs. Taking Chandler Jones off the edge, where he's clearly most effective, certainly didn't help matters.
Despite those mitigating factors, the defense has put up respectable pass rushing totals so far: 7 sacks, 12 QB hits and 27 pressures through three games. To put that in perspective, our beleaguered offensive line has given up 7 sacks, 10 hits and 30 pressures during that time. The Pats aren't stacked with pass rushers like some of the league's other top defenses, but they've gotten by fine so far, and they figure to get more contributions from the likes of Dominique Easley and Jamie Collins (who has yet to rush the passer this season) down the road.
If they don't put the heat on Alex Smith, then I'll start getting a little worried. The Chiefs come into Monday night with one of the few offensive lines that can relate to the Patriots struggles. Look for Chandler Jones to take advantage of left tackle Eric Fisher, the top overall pick from last year's draft, whose rookie year struggles have carried over into 2014.
@therealnedbrady @PatriotsLife will the pats ever use @Tyms2Times and why did they let big name players go to Denver
— da god (@D_money_da_god) September 24, 2014
I like Brian Tyms, but I don't see where there's a spot for him on the active roster right now. The Pats already have a logjam at receiver, with Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins flip-flopping as the healthy scratch on game days. Both Dobson and Thompkins have much more experience and chemistry with Brady than Tyms (remember, most of Tyms impressive preseason catches came on throws from Jimmy Garoppolo), and Tyms doesn't help his case by not contributing on special teams. An injury or two could change things in a hurry, but right now I don't see where Tyms fits in.Why did the Pats let big name players go to Denver? If you're talking about letting Wes Welker and Aqib Talib walk to their AFC rivals, I think it was simply a matter of the team not being comfortable with the financial commitment it would take to keep the player in both cases. From the team's perspective, Welker was a soon-to-be 32 year old slot receiver with a lot of wear and tear on his body. With capable alternatives available both on the market (Danny Amendola) and in-house (Julian Edelman), the team felt the investment wouldn't be worth it long term, and has largely been proven right by Edelman's emergence and Welker's deteriorating health. It was the sudden loss of Aaron Hernandez, not Welker, that has limited the Pats offense since that 2013 offseason.
In Talib's case, the combination of his lengthy injury history and troubled past likely gave them pause, as well as the sheer amount of money it would take to keep him. It was certainly a risky move, as Darrelle Revis was no given at the moment, but one that paid off when the Pats landed a considerably better player for comparable money.
It's important to remember that the Pats had no way of knowing where each player would ultimately wind up signing. That part of the equation is entirely out of their control. In each case, the organization simply made a calculated decision, weighing out how their options would play out short and long term, and both times made the difficult decision to pass on paying the big bucks to a productive player.
We end our first mailbag with Garoppolo talk, because there's no better sign of panic than calls for the backup quarterback. In short, Garoppolo will only see significant snaps if Brady is forced off the field with injury. Tom Brady didn't forget how to play football, or morph into a bad quarterback overnight. He's still the legendary, hall of fame quarterback he's always been, and his statistical struggles are clearly the result of protection that would have most QBs retreating into their shell. The notion that he could be benched is beyond ludicrous. As for giving Jimmy G more practice reps, I just don't think the answer to an offense struggling to get in synch is to give them less practice reps with the starting quarterback. For now, Jimmy G's role is to give the starting defense good looks in practice and soak up every bit of knowledge from Brady that he can. That's it, that's all.
It's been fun, folks, and we'll be doing this again the same time next week. Want to participate? Send any Pats related questions or concerns to our facebook page, or tweet them to @PatriotsLife or myself (@therealnedbrady).
