Patriots are afraid of change
We all remember this play. It was Brady's 50th touchdown pass of the season and Randy Moss' 23rd touchdown reception of the season. It also sealed the 16-0 season for the 2007 New England Patriots. It was a record breaking pass and catch for both, and a historical night for all. But did it spoil Patriots fans and lead us all to expectations that aren't realistic for this team?
There are two constants, on the offensive side of the ball, that still remain from that record team. Tom Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. With McDaniels at the head of the Patriots offense he has always had weapons in his offense. 2007 he had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte' Stallworth and Kevin Faulk, and they were the highest scoring offense in the league that year. In 2012, when again they were the highest scoring offense in the league he had Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Stevan Ridley. But he lost in the Super Bowl both years, and the years in between 2007 and 2012 he was bouncing around from Denver to St. Louis then back to New England. Why didn't it work in those two other cities? Because he did not have the high powered luxury of weapons that he had in New England and could not adjust and adapt.
He has always been a spread coach, wanting to pass the ball around to as many players as possible and score 35 points a game. The years where he had the two highest scoring offenses in the league (2007,2012) the defense ranked 17th and 20th in the league. The offense was forced to score that much to win games.
This year is a different story and when McDaniels finally realizes this he will be able to get his offense in sync, keep his aging quarterback upright and use the only two reliable pass catchers that he has at his expense. How can he be effective in the pass game with only two receivers? Play action. Set up by the running game.
Go back and look at previous games where the Patriots have had close games, wins and losses, and see how many times Brady has thrown the ball, and then look at how many times they rushed the ball (just running backs).
Week 1 Miami (Loss 33-20)
56 Pass Attempts
17 Rushing Attempts
Week 3 Oakland (W 16-9)
37 Pass Attempts
28 Rushing Attempts
AFC Championship Game vs. Broncos (Loss 26-16)
38 Pass Attempts
14 Rushing Attempts
2013 New York Jets (Loss 30-27)
46 Pass Attempts
20 Rushing Attempts
2013 Cincinnati Bengals (Loss 13-6)
38 Pass Attempts
18 Rushing Attempts
You get the picture, when McDaniels and Brady rely heavily on the pass those are the games that they struggle the most. Lets take a look at some of their recent wins, games that they have had success running the ball.
Week 2 Minnesota (Win 30-7)
21 Pass Attempts
35 Rushing Attempts
AFC Divisional Round vs. Colts (Win 43-22)
25 Pass Attempts
45 Rushing Attempts
2013 Pittsburgh Steelers (Win 55-31)
33 Pass Attempts
35 Rushing Attempts
2013 Baltimore Ravens (Win 41-7)
26 Pass Attempts
34 Rushing Attempts
So it is not necessary for the Patriots to rush the ball fifty times a game, but with the defense that they have this year, the lack of offensive receiving threats, and the problems along the offensive line the best thing they can do on offense is to simplify and stay balanced. The 2007 season spoiled us as fans and spoiled Josh McDaniels.
It spoiled us as fans because if the Patriots win 30-7 but Tom Brady only throws one touchdown it is a boring and uneventful game for us. We are so used to the 2007 and 2012 where he would complete 35 passes on 50 attempts to 6 different receivers and score 40 points a game. That is not the offense we have this year. We have two legitimate threats that Brady trusts. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. He does not trust Amendola, he does not trust Lafell, and he certainly does not trust his offensive line.
People will argue that the NFL is changing and that you need be able to score in order to win games, well we saw first hand last year that that is false. We saw first hand in 2007 and 2012 that high powered offenses do not win championships. What did the 2007 and 2012 Giants do well? What did the 2013 Seahawks hang their hat on? They played defense, ran the ball, and threw when they needed to. And they all won championships.
The Patriots have a championship caliber defense, if used properly. And they have enough weapons on the offensive side of the ball to win games. Fans need to trust in the defense to take them where they want to go. It worked in 2001, 2003,and 2004.
The 2001 Patriots finished the season ranked 6th in scoring defense (17 points per game).
The 2003 Patriots finished the season ranked 1st in scoring defense (14.9 points per game).
The 2004 Patriots finished the season ranked 2nd in scoring defense (16.2 points per game).
The years that the Patriots were able to play defense, control the clock, run the ball and use play action was the years they won their championships. If the Patriots can get back to the defensive minded offense that won them championships, they will get back to where they want to be.
So Patriots fans, and Josh McDaniels trust the running game. It is not always pretty, it will not get you the highest scoring offense in the league and it may not be exciting to watch, but it works. Allow the defense to win games for you.
It is time that Patriots fans start getting excited about defense again, the way that Seattle is for the Seahawks. They have such a home field advantage that allows their defense to thrive in that environment. When the Seahawks need it most they can rely on the 12th man to raise them up and give them the extra energy that they need to make a big play. When the fourth quarter was rolling around against Oakland on Sunday most Patriots fans were heading to the gates because it was a boring game. Get excited about defense. Back them. And be a factor in disrupting the offense.
Defense and balance wins championships.
Trust it.
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