Week 3 scouting report: Oakland Raiders
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| The Raiders have handed their offense over to rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images |
Oakland offense:
The nicest adjective I can come up with for Oakland's offense so far is "limited". They've managed a mere 14 points in each of their two games so far, a scoring mark that has them ranked 28th in the league. Such is the case when you start a rookie quarterback despite a lack of viable playmakers around him.
Much like the Patriots handled Jimmy Garoppolo this preseason, the Raiders extra-conservative play-calling seems predicated on not putting too much on rookie quarterback Derek Carr's plate so early in his career. Most of Carr's passing attempts so far have been of the high-percentage, dink and dunk variety; something which goes a long way in explaining both his impressive 63.5% completion percentage and lowly 5.6 yards per attempt.
The best way to counter that is to play tight, physical man coverage, refusing to give the receivers space to open up those short passes, and dare the Raiders to beat you down the field. This plays right into the strengths of the Patriots secondary, which boast strong and opportunistic cover corners in Darrelle Revis, Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard (should he return from a shoulder injury) and slot man Kyle Arrington.
At 6'1", former Packer James Jones represents the closest thing to a deep threat on this Raiders offense; he leads the team so far in targets (18), catches (12), yards (146) and touchdowns (2) through two weeks, including a 42 yard gainer last week. Those numbers could earn him a trip to Revis island, especially considering the state of the receiving corp around him. Denarius Moore has flashed big play ability in the past but has only been able to turn his 13 targets into a measly 5 receptions, and Rod Streater is simply a possession guy. Tight end Mychal Rivera has "move tight end" athleticism, but has yet to establish himself as a consistent threat. If the Patriots secondary plays tight on these receivers and disrupts the timing of those short patterns, they could make life very difficult for Carr.
Another thing that could make life difficult for Carr is pressure. Buoyed by comeback seasons by aging veteran tackes Donald Penn and Khalif Barnes. the offensive line has for the most part done a decent job of keeping Carr clean, albeit with the help of running plenty of three step drops and quick hitting plays. Through 81 dropbacks, they've only allowed one sack and 6 QB hits, although the 18 hurries is probably a little higher than they'd like to see.
However, Carr has already made some panicked mistakes when faced with real pressure. Take this interception from last week: with DE Jared Crick bearing down on him, Carr panics and forces a pass to TE Mychal Rivera that safety Kareem Jackson is able to read and break on for an easy interception.
Given the opportunistic nature of the Patriots defense (which leads the league with 7 turnovers forced through 2 games, including 5 interceptions), Carr won't be able to get away with mistakes like this on Sunday.
Establishing a running game that has yet to get going would be key for a Raiders team trying to lessen the pressure on their rookie QB. With Maurice Jones-Drew unlikely to go with a hand injury, that burden will fall on the shoulders of Darren McFadden, who has flashed big play ability but never put it fully together since being drafted with the fourth pick of 2008 draft. He's been off to a pedestrian start to the season, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on his 16 rushing attempts with a long run of merely 10 yards. In fact, the Raiders as a team have been dreadful on the ground, averaging just 63 yards per game.
While the Raiders backfield has struggled to gain yards on the ground, they've at least helped Carr a little bit as dumpoff targets. McFadden is still dangerous in space, and can hurt a defense in the screen game. They also boast fullback Marcel Reece, who brings unique athleticism and pass catching ability to the fullback position. He'll be a key for the linebackers, as his size proves to be too much for defensive backs to handle in coverage.
One final thing to watch out for is trickery from the Raiders. On a team bereft of playmakers, it's not surprising that the coaching staff has gotten creative with the playbook to try to manufacture yards. Considering the presence of both McFadden and former Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano on Oakland's side, don't be surprised to see a little of the Wild Cat package that McFadden popularized as a collegiate star and Sparano infamously unleashed on the unprepared Patriots back in 2008. The Raiders also used a little misdirection with McFadden last week against the Texans to spring Carr for a 41 yard scamper down the right sideline.
Carr won't conjure up any memories of Michael Vick, but he still holds the early team lead in rushing yards on the strength of that one play.
Oakland defense:
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| Mack has been a rare bright spot on the Raiders defense. Cary Edmondson/USA Today Sports |
It's often said that the two biggest keys to winning in the NFL are running the ball and stopping the run. That goes a long way towards explaining Oakland's 0-2 record, as the Raiders defense has been abysmal against the run, giving up a whopping 400 yards through two games. That number is a little inflated by already facing 80 attempts, but teams have run that much against the Silver and Black because they've found success. Opponents have averaged 5 yards a pop on the ground, and both Chris Ivory (71 yard touchdown) and Arian Foster (40 yard run) have broken loose for home run plays against them.
The Raiders added a lot of familiar veteran names this offseason to their 3-4 front, but many of those aging stars have simply looked past their prime in Oakland. Nose tackle Pat Sims is off to a solid start to the year, registering 6 defensive stops and a +2.1 overall grade from ProFootballFocus, but free agent acquisitions Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith and Lamarr Woodley have failed to make much of an impact so far. None of those three have a QB hit or sack to their name yet, despite their previous reputations for rushing the passer.
The Patriots went to great lengths to get their running game going last week in Minnesota, handing the ball off to lead back Stevan Ridley 25 times and often using backup offensive tackle Cameron Fleming as a jumbo-sized blocking tight end. This approach resulted in some nice fantasy numbers for Ridley (101 yards and a touchdown), but the team didn't neccesarily impose their will on the ground as much as you'd like to see, given the amount of effort and resources put into the run-heavy game plan. The Raiders present another chance to really get the ground game going, and could be just what the doctor ordered for a offensive line still trying to rebound from their horrid week one showing.
The secondary is a different story, as several offseason additions have improved what was a weak unit from a year ago. Age and money made corners Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown expendable in San Francisco, but they still represent an upgrade in Oakland. With those two in tow, the Raiders have favored a man coverage approach similar to the Patriots, as the Raiders corners are unafraid to play close to the line of scrimmage and use their physicality to disrupt timing plays on the line of scrimmage.
They can afford to do that partly because of a strong duo at safety behind them. Tyvon Branch has long been one of the most underappreciated players in the game and he's joined this season by Tom Brady's old frenemy Charles Woodson. At age 37, Woodson isn't the same impact player he was a few years ago, when he was defensive player of the year in 2009 as a Green Bay Packer, but his play so far this year has proven he still has a few tricks up his sleeve. Playing at safety, Woodson has been able to use his instincts and ball skills to his advantage, skills that were on display in week one when he baited Geno Smith into an interception. Both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are longtime admirers of Woodson's game, and Brady will surely be keeping track of where Woodson is on the field at all times.
With that said, no secondary will have success without a pass rush, and Oakland has struggled to get to the passer so far this year. As a team, they've only managed 14 hurries, 2 QB hits and 2 sacks in the 48 pass attempts they've faced so far. With the likes of Woodley, Tuck and Smith failing to generate much of a pass rush, most of their pressure has come from linebackers Sio Moore and rookie Khalil Mack. Those two have speed to burn, and they've been dangerous when the team has gotten creative with their blitz packages.
Take this play from Week One against the Jets. On third and four, the Raiders start in a base defensive alignment before shifting Mack (52) alongside Moore (55) on the edge. The Jets start the play with enough blockers to match up, but once former Patriot Zach Sudfeld goes in motion, they find themselves facing an overload. At the snap, the right tackle picks up left DE Justin Tuck, leaving RB Bilal Powell with the unenviable choice of picking up either Moore and Mack, both of whom come screaming off the edge. He picks the outside man Moore, leaving Mack with a free run at the quarterback. Geno Smith winds up narrowly escaping Mack on the play, only to be hit by Moore, producing a fumble that the Jets were fortunate enough to recover.
The speed of Moore and Mack make such a situation dangerous, but it's also hard to imagine Tom Brady not noticing such an overload and calling an audible into a better protection. That duo has speed, but they've hardly been wrecking opponents passing games on a consistent basis, as much of their pressure has come from scheme-created scenarios like the play above. All in all, the Raiders are still by far the least imposing pass rush the Pats have faced so far this season. If the offensive line can do it's job and protect Brady, the play action game could be an effective way to get the passing game going, with Aaron Dobson, Danny Amendola and Tim Wright standing out as weapons who could use some targets to get going alongside Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.
Special teams:
The biggest name here is place kicker Sebastian Janikowski, who joins Tom Brady as the longest tenured active players with the same team in the league. Both are now in their 15 seasons with their current teams; Janikowski after being drafted with the 17th overall pick in the 2000 draft, and Brady after infamously sliding to the sixth round and pick 199 in the same draft. Yes, the Raiders used their first round pick that year on a kicker, which is ridiculous no matter how strong his leg is.
Janikowski can still boot it, but the most dangerous threat on Oakland's special teams might be kick returner Latavius Murray, who has averaged a healthy 24.3 yards on his returns so far. Just like last week with Cordarrelle Patterson, the onus will be on Stephen Gostkowski's right leg to create touchbacks and ensure that Murray doesn't get any chances to hurt the Pats with a big play.
The Raiders coverage units have been pretty solid so far, and have yet to give up any big plays. It wouldn't be surprising to see that continue on kickoffs, where the Pats have been nearly invisible, but Julian Edelman is always dangerous on punt returns. If the defense can get a few stops and force Oakland to punt from deep in their territory, it could set up some juicy opportunities for Edelman to take advantage of in the return game.
Other factors to watch:
- Spreading it out: I personally think the hoopla this week over Tom Brady's ball distribution has gotten a little out of control. With only 22 passing attempts last week, there were only so many targets to go around, and a multiple TE-heavy game plan left limited snaps to divvy up amongst Brady's secondary receivers. With that said, there's no question that this offense will be better if they can get some of Brady's secondary targets going, and this could be a good week for that. The Raiders secondary is the relative strength of their defense, but they still lack depth and could be picked apart, as Tom Brady is certainly several notches above the quarterbacks they've faced so far this year (Geno Smith and Hahvahd's own Ryan Fitzpatrick). If the Pats can protect Brady, the opportunity could be there for some shots downfield.
- The walking wounded: The talent disparity is already vast between the Patriots and Raiders, and the Raiders already find themselves a bit banged up heading into this Week 3 tilt. Starting receiver Rod Streater hasn't practiced this week with a hip injury, and running back Maurice Jones-Drew is unlikely to play with an injured hand. They're also fighting some injuries on defense: Sio Moore hasn't practiced all week with an ankle problem, Justin Tuck has been limited with an illness, and both starting corner Carlos Rogers and nickleback Chimdi Chekwa have been limited with knee problems. To have a realistic shot of knocking off the Pats, the Raiders will have to have their best players on the field, something which is already starting to look unlikely.
- Beware of the trap: Playing the lowly Raiders at home a week before back-to-back primetime games against 2013 playoff teams is the definition of a trap game. Given Week One's loss still being on everyone's mind and Brady's stated displeasure with the offense's execution last week, I'd be surprised if they overlook this one. This is a team that is still in the process of developing before our eyes, and every game should be seen as an opportunity to get better, especially with much tougher challenges looming during the season's second half. Given the talent disparity between these two clubs, I expect the Pats to take care of business with relative ease. Anything short of that should be cause for concern for a team with legitimate Super Bowl expectations.
