Week Four scouting report: Kansas City Chiefs
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| Charles is one of the game's premier offensive players |
Kansas City offense:
There are few teams out there who provoke a simpler defensive game plan. It's imperative to stop the run against this Chiefs offense. They are one of the few true "line it up and run right at you" teams left in the league, something that shows on tape not just in their sheer amount of rushing attempts (89 attempts through three games) but also in the number of heavy personnel groupings they use. Kansas City uses plenty of unbalanced lines, multiple tight end sets, and fullback Anthony Sherman sees the field for a decent amount of snaps. There's no disguising their intentions; this is a run-first offense.
Of course, stopping the run is much easier said than done against a backfield as talented as Kansas City's. They ran all over the Dolphins last week to the tune of 174 rushing yards without Jamaal Charles, and the 2013 MVP candidate is expected to return to the lineup this week. When healthy, Charles is the Chiefs offense, as evidenced by a 2013 season where he touched the ball 329 times and turned those touches into 1980 yards and 19 touchdowns. At 5'11" and 199 pounds, Charles isn't the biggest back, but he runs fearlessly between the tackles, has impeccable vision, and possesses rare speed that always makes him a threat to break one for a big play.
How dynamic Charles can be in his first game back from an ankle injury is another question, as is how much will the Chiefs use him. If they try to lessen the workload for their workhorse, Knile Davis will be the man getting those carries. Davis is a big powerful back with a tantalizing combination of size (5'10", 227) and explosiveness. Getting the bulk of the carries in Charles' absence, Davis had some impressive runs, although fumbling twice last week surely drew the ire of the coaching staff.
Another thing to watch on the ground is Alex Smith's ability to scramble. He's never been a run first quarterback, but Smith is athletic and can hurt you with his legs if you give him an open lane. While this usually only comes up on scrambles and broken plays, the Chiefs will throw out the occasional designed run for Smith, including some read option plays.
The Chiefs compliment their rushing attack with a conservative west coast approach to the passing game. They don't ask quarterback Alex Smith to do too much, and rather have him throw a lot of short, high-percentage routes. It's a passing attack that looks more to keep the chains moving than to gain yardage in big chunk plays down the field.
The Chiefs lead receiver is still Dwyane Bowe, whose 6'2" size and long arms allow him to play the position like a basketball player. The Chiefs like to get Bowe involved by throwing to him on slant routes, where he can use his size to shield the defender from the ball. While his inconsistency has driven Chiefs fans mad throughout his career, Bowe is capable of hurting you if you don't pay attention to him, and the talent drop-off from him to Donnie Avery and Junior Hemmingway is deep enough to justify giving him the Revis Island treatment. Avery has the speed to be a downfield threat but has never been a consistent playmaker, and Hemmingway sees only the occasional target as Kansas City's third receiver.
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One thing to note for the defense is the amount the Chiefs use their running backs in the passing game. With a limited group at receiver, the Chiefs have used their explosive backfield to compensate, generating passing yards with a combination of screens, quick outs and dump-offs designed to get the ball to their playmaking backs in space. For evidence of this, look no further than last year, when Charles caught 70 passes for 693 yards and 7 scores. With threats like him and Joe McKnight (2 receiving touchdowns in Charles' absence last week) on the roster, open field tackling will need to be sharp. Those kinds of plays are only dangerous if you allow the runner to pick up big yards after the catch, and Charles can pick those up in a hurry with his explosive speed.
Another strength of the Kansas City offense is a deep and talented group of tight ends. Anthony Fasano is the starter, a solid if unspectacular receiver who uses his size and steady hands well as a red zone threat. Fasano also brings excellent blocking to the table, and is a key part of setting the edge for the Chiefs running game.
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| Kelce is emerging as a big play threat. Photo via KCChiefs.com |
The Chiefs have also recently begun to use three tight end packages, bringing Demetrius Harris onto the field. At 6'7", the former basketball player has intriguing upside, although he's still unproven in the league.
The recipe to stopping this Chiefs offense is pretty similar to what I suggested last week against the Raiders. Allow your secondary to play physical man coverage against a limited group of receivers. Play physical at the line of scrimmage, disrupt the timing of their short passing game, and dare them to beat the likes of Revis over the top. With that trust in your secondary to stop their passing game, devote an extra man (likely Patrick Chung) to the box in an effort to stop the run. Bill Belichick has always sought to take away something from the opposing offense. If the Pats can take away the running game, they could make life very difficult on Alex Smith.
Stopping the run could be easier said than done for the Pats this week, especially if they are without DT Sealver Siliga. Siliga has been their top option next to Vince Wilfork on early downs, and he's done a good job of plugging gaps up front against the run. With Dominique Easley still playing almost exclusively on passing downs, look for Chris Jones to see an expanded role in Siliga's presumed absence. Furthermore, linebackers Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower will need to continue their strong, downhill play against the run.
The biggest weakness of this Chiefs offense is their paper-thin pass protection, something which shouldn't be surprising following a rough offseason that saw them lose both starting guards (Geoff Schwartz, Jon Asomoah) and their starting left tackle (Brandon Albert) to free agency. To make matters worse, starting right tackle Donald Stephenson was hit with a four game suspension for a violation of the league's PED policy.
To put it nicely, the replacements haven't been up to the task. They've allowed 9 sacks, 9 QB hits and 32 pressures through three games (against Tennessee, Denver and Miami), with 2013 top overall pick Eric Fisher particularly struggling at left tackle. Fisher has allowed seven of those QB hits himself, and will likely see a lot of Chandler Jones on Monday night. If Jones can dominate this matchup, it will make matters very difficult for the Chiefs offense.
One final thing to watch for when facing Kansas City's offense is the turnover differential. The Chiefs were amongst league leaders last year in protecting the football, but come into this week with five turnovers through their first two games. Is that an aberration, or are the Chiefs limitations on offense catching up with them in the ball security department? A feisty New England defense that has been forcing giveaways at a stellar rate so far will certainly be looking to find out.
Kansas City defense
I can't stress this enough: everything this week (and with the Patriots offense in general) is dependent on improvements from the offensive line. Despite their reputation, the Chiefs defense has plenty of vulnerable spots that can be exploited. However, their definitive strength is the edge rushing duo of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. If the Patriots block as poorly as they did last week against Oakland, that duo will single-handedly stop the offense in it's tracks.
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| Poe is a load in the middle of the KC defense. |
Of course, that was the story last week too. Oakland came into Foxborough having given up 400 rushing yards through two games, but poor blocking up front prevented the Pats from generating any consistent movement on the ground. Changing that and establishing the run should be a big priority for the offense. Not only would doing so help a beleaguered offensive line get physical and hopefully get in a rhythm, but it would also force pass rushers to respect the threat of the run, thus keeping them from being able to simply pin their ears back and tee off on Brady snap after snap. Consistent positive gains on the ground would also help the offense stay out of dangerous third and long situations, when teams would really be looking to bring pressure on Brady.
Another way to help the offense counter it's early struggles in pass protection would be getting Shane Vereen going in the passing game. Vereen is one of the Patriots biggest "mismatch creators" on offense, as his speed and receiving ability proves to be too much for linebackers, but he has yet to make a major impact through the air this year. Vereen could prove to be very valuable as a safety valve option for Brady (think Kevin Faulk with more explosiveness), and Miami hurt the Chiefs at times last week with throws to their running backs.
If (and this is a huge if) the Pats can protect Brady, there could be holes to exploit in the Kansas City secondary. There was a time that the Chiefs had one of the best secondaries in football, but former standouts Brandon Carr and Flowers have left for free agency, leaving an uninspiring group of corners in their place. Former Dolphin Sean Smith has been playing well, and his man coverage ability makes him the closest thing to a top corner on the roster. However, fellow starter Marcus Cooper has been picked on. In the past two games, Cooper has allowed 13 of his 19 targets to be completed for 207 yards and two touchdowns. The two corners behind him, Ron Parker and Chris Owens, haven't exactly lit the world on fire either.
Another weakness comes with the likely absence of Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry. Listed as doubtful with an ankle injury, Berry would likely be given the unenviable task of Gronk duty if healthy. With him out of the lineup, it could be a good time to follow Gronk's wishes and get the star tight end more involved in the offense.
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| Houston and Hali have been ballin' in 2014. Joe Robbins/Getty Images |
One of the few things the offense has done well despite the line's struggles has been avoid turnovers. Tom Brady still has yet to throw an interception, and the team hasn't turned it over since the fumble-fest that was the second half of the Miami game. Avoiding turnovers has been a key to the offense surviving it's sluggish start, and it's a trend that will have to continue in a hostile Kansas City environment
Special teams:
It seems like the Chiefs are always dangerous on special teams, and this year is no exception. This year, the biggest threat so far has been Frankie Hammond, who has averaged an excellent 13.5 yards per punt return, including a 47 yarder. The kick return duties have been split up between Hammond, Knile Davis and Joe McKnight, who has hurt the Pats as a returner in the past while a member of the Jets.
So far, the Chiefs have been excellent at covering punts as well. It's a small sample size (four punts), but they've held opponents to a paltry 2.3 yards per return. Julian Edelman will likely get a chance or two to put a dent in that number.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have struggled to cover kicks so far, allowing 32 yards per kick return. The Pats haven't had many opportunities to return kicks so far, but the group of Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Matt Slater has been surprisingly effective.
Other factors to watch:
Ignore the noise: Coaches talk all the time about blocking out whatever distractions the environment may bring, but it's impossible for players to not realize they're playing on Monday Night Football in front of a national TV audience. More importantly, the Pats struggling offense will have to deal with one of the loudest crowds in the NFL, one who will be attempting to break the Seahawks record for decibel level at an outdoor stadium. Communication will be difficult, and it will be important for a young offense to stay focused and on the same page from the get-go.
Facing the heat: There's been nowhere to hide for an offensive line whose struggles have been holding back the entire offense. This group has faced a lot of criticism over the past week, and will be under heavy scrutiny during this game. How they respond will be a key to the game, with Solder and Vollmer in particular needing to step up and reach their prior levels of play against two tough assignments.
Run defense: is it for real? The Pats run defense has rebounded with two strong performances after getting shredded in Week One by Miami, but those performances have come against a Adrian Peterson-less Vikings squad and a Raiders team that hasn't run the ball well all season. While their Week One struggles appeared to be scheme-related (having 265 pound Chandler Jones two gap will never make sense), this represents the run defenses first tough test to prove they are for real. Shutting down a strong Kansas City rushing attack will be a way for this young emerging defense to flex it's muscles.With a strong secondary already in place, establishing a tough run defense could make this a very tough group to attack going forward.
