Week One scouting report: Miami Dolphins
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| Photo via Turner.com |
Miami offense:
The big story in Miami leading up to this game is the unveiling of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's new, fast-paced, no-huddle offense. Lazor comes over to Miami after spending last year working wonders with Nick Foles as the Eagles quarterbacks coach, and the hope is that Lazor can guide third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a breakthrough season.
Whether Miami has the personnel to match Philly's vaunted offensive production remains to be seen (verdict: unlikely), but an uptempo offense makes a lot of sense to help the team cover up some of it's major weaknesses from last year, namely a dreadful offensive line. The line allowed Tannehill to get sacked a whopping 58 times last year, while also getting next to no movement for an anemic rushing attack.
Going uptempo should help the revamped offensive line in two ways. An expected uptick in quick-hitting passing plays will mean the line will be called on to hold their blocks for less time in protection. Sometimes, getting rid of the ball quickly is the best protection (ask Peyton Manning about this). Furthermore, an uptempo attack can also limit defensive substitutions, keeping the defense in unfavorable personnel and leading to defensive fatigue that can help the offense generate extra push in the running game. Look for the Fins to try to trap some of the Patriots bigger personnel on the field for extended stretches, with Vince Wilfork standing out as a target in his first game back from a torn Achilles.
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| Albert is used to battling pass rushers like Von Miller (USATSI) |
However, there's less certainty in the middle. Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey is out with a hip injury, leaving the starting job to the underwhelming Samson Setele. Former Packer Daryn College and ex-Ram Shelley Smith (who visited the Pats as a free agent this spring) aren't exactly a great tandem at guard, although they should still represent a major upgrade from last year's pathetic showing. Smith particularly shows some promise as a run blocker, which is desperately needed for a team that earned a cumulative -46.3 run blocking grade last year by ProFootballFocus.
Speaking of that running game, it looks like free agent addition Knowshon Moreno has overtaken incumbent Lamar Miller for the lead-back role in Miami. Moreno's numbers were obviously inflated last year by the number of 5 and 6 man fronts he saw playing in Denver's aerial offense, but his combination of tackle-breaking power and reliability in the passing game should make him an upgrade for a Miami rushing attack that has been stagnant for several years now. Of course, it could be tough sledding for Moreno if his line fails to generate movement for him, which is certainly a possibility against a talented, versatile New England front.
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| The athletic Clay has hurt the Pats in the past (Jim Rogash/Getty Images) |
One final thing for the defense to keep an eye on is Tannehill's scrambling ability. He relies on his athleticism less than some of his peers, but Tannehill has great speed and can really hurt a defense if you give him a lane. The Patriots had their occasional struggles with scrambling quarterbacks last year, but also come into this year looking a step faster and more athletic on defense. Tannehill, a converted wide receiver, will pose a good early test in that department.
Miami defense:
The Patriots offensive line was a major concern heading into this game even before the news that Tom Brady is nursing a calf injury severe enough for him to miss Thursday's practice. The Pats offense has the potential to be very good this season, but that obviously all falls apart if they can't protect their quarterback.
Those concerns are magnified facing a Miami defensive line that ranks amongst the league's best. Whether it's Sebastien Vollmer or Marcus Cannon taking the snaps at right tackle, they'll have their hands full with Cameron Wake, who remains one of the game's premier pass rushers. On the interior, defensive tackle Randy Starks is as reliable as they come, and will pose a massive challenge for whatever duo the Patriots put out there at guard. Those two players are merely the standouts for a deep defensive line group that should make their share of plays, even without the suspended Dion Jordan.
However, if the Patriots do give Brady some time, he could have his way with Miami's back seven. Without pressure, Miami could get exposed a bit in pass coverage against a deep group of Patriots weapons. Brent Grimes remains a standout in the Fins secondary, but their depth behind him at corner consists of the rapidly declining Cortland Finnegan and the unproven trio of Will Davis, Jamar Taylor and Sammy Seamster. There should be mismatches to be found in that group, and the Fins starting duo of 5'10" corners could be exposed in the red zone by the likes of Aaron Dobson and Brandon LeFell.
Of course, the big X factor this week is the expected return of Rob Gronkowski. Will Gronk play (my money would be on it), and if so, how big of a role can we expect from him? It's undeniably tough to go from the light contact of practice to live game action, but Gronk is a different animal, as demonstrated by his 8 catch, 114 yard debut in Week 7 last season. If he's on the field, he could be a very difficult matchup for a Dolphins team that will be without suspended safety Reshad Jones.
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| Vereen could be a mismatch for the Fins linebackers (Jim Davis/Boston Globe) |
One way to mitigate concerns about Brady's health could be to establish the running game, as the Fins defensive line is much better at rushing the passer than defending the run. Starks is an excellent run stuffer, but the team lost his partner in crime, Paul Soliai, via free agency this offseason. While there is some uncertainty surrounding the Pats O-line, many of the potential starters (notably Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell) are better run blockers than pass blockers, and the offense is much more balanced and dangerous when Stevan Ridley is bringing that power-rushing dimension to the attack.
One final thing to watch is the assimilation of newly acquired TE Tim Wright into the team's offense. Wright could pose another mismatch against the Dolphins linebackers and safeties, but it's unknown how big of a role he'll be able to play considering the lack of time he's had to learn the offense. However, he flashed a lot of promise in an impressive final preseason game, during which he played over 40 snaps merely days after his arrival in the Logan Mankins trade. Wright isn't built like a traditional, in-line tight end, so his role may be tied to Gronk's availability. One thing we do know, from Brady himself: "if he's [Wright] open, we'll probably throw it to him".
Special teams:
Special teams are always important, but their importance is often heightened due to the chaotic uncertainty of Week One. This game will give the Patriots their first live look at Jarvis Landry, the Dolphins second round pick who is projected as their primary returner on both kickoffs and punts. Landry didn't stand out in a good or bad way in those roles in the preseason. Landry is new, but place kicker Caleb Sturgis and punter Brandon Fields remain after both had solid seasons last year.
The Patriots are looking to build off of a solid 2013 showing from their special teams, but will need to sort out the kick returner role. Roy Finch didn't make the cut after serving as the team's primary returner for most of the preseason, and fellow rookie James White doesn't appear to have the explosion to provide much of a threat back there.
The rest of the special teams units look pretty set. Julian Edelman will continue to return punts, where he statistically ranks amongst the all-time greats, while Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen return from excellent seasons. The coverage teams look set, with captain Matthew Slater joined by major contributors such as Nate Ebner, Tavon Wilson and Chris White.
Other factors to watch:
- Baby, it's hot outside: Playing in Miami early in the season is always a challenge due to the Florida heat and humidity. Bill Belichick was likely pleased by the unseasonably hot weather this week in New England, as it helped to give his team a little extra time to acclimate to the weather. The decision to fly the team to Miami today following practice (a day earlier than the norm) was also likely made with acclimation to the weather in mind. With Miami reportedly set to unveil their new, uptempo offense, conditioning will be an issue to watch.
- Excercising the road demons: Here's a stat for those dismissive of the impact of home field advantage: Tom Brady is 11-1 against the Dolphins at home but only 6-6 against them on the road. The trip to Miami has always been a struggle for the Patriots, no matter what the talent disparity has been between the two teams, and last year's loss in Miami could have been very costly in the playoff race. With Denver still looking very strong in the AFC, every win will count as those two battle for home-field advantage in an expected AFC Championship game showdown.
- Injury returns: After seeing so many key players go down last year, the season opener will mark the return of several key players from injury. Gronkowski's return has deservedly gotten most of the attention, considering his role as a catalyst for the offense, but Sunday will also see Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Sebastien Vollmer and Aaron Dobson take their first meaningful and healthy snaps in a long time. Another debut to watch is Dominique Easley, who didn't play at all in the preseason but is expected to play Sunday. Easley missed most of last year with a torn ACL, the second of his collegiate career, but has the talent to be a disruptive force up front if healthy.
- #Calfgate2014: Brady may have reassured panicked Patriots fans everywhere last night by confirming that he'll play Sunday, but any injury serious enough to keep the starting quarterback out of practice two days before game day warrants monitoring going forward. No one knows how Brady injured the calf or the nature of the injury itself, but neither Brady nor the Pats would hold him out of practice unless there was some legitimate concern. Keep an eye on Brady's mobility, especially if the reshuffled offensive line allows him to get hit early on.
