Is Tom Brady a legitimate MVP candidate?

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense started out the season in completely unspectacular fashion. Up until the offensive explosion when Cincinnati came to town in Week 5, Tom Brady had thrown for a mere 791 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions, which included the shock blowout at the hands of the Chiefs. Fast forward to Week 8, and the Patriots have dusted off a 51-23 win over a strong, albeit heavily underachieving Chicago Bears team. In the last 4 weeks, Tom Brady has thrown for 14 touchdowns, 1268 yards and a duck egg in the interception column. He is statistically ranked 4th among QB's according to Pro Football Focus, ahead of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck.

Usually, it is remarkable stretches of play around the middle of the regular season that sparks MVP talk. So let’s spark it. Is Tom Brady a contender for MVP this year?

The main case for Brady as an MVP this year is his touchdown to turnover ratio. Tom Terrific has thrown only 2 interceptions all year, with 18 TD's in the bank. Some of you may remember Brady’s unanimous MVP season but lets lay down a refresher of the stats:

Tom Brady with 18 TDs, 2 INTs thru 8 games. When he last won MVP (2010) he had 36 TDs, 4 INTs.... think about it.

— Rich Keefe (@Keefe21) October 26, 2014

Also worth considering is that the level of performance in 2010 earned a unanimous MVP ballot, something that had never been done before and has not been done since. By no means does Brady have to win unanimously again this year, but the stats suggest that he is exactly half way to this level of production after 8 games this year.

What makes Brady’s case particularly compelling is the lack of other candidates around the league. There is likely to be some voter apathy for Peyton Manning, despite his continuously amazing stats. In addition, the “weakness” of Brady’s offensive cast (which looks more like a myth every week) will likely earn Tommy some extra votes for similar production. 2012 MVP Adrian Peterson’s personal crises have meant that he has zero chance of winning MVP this year. JJ Watt could get a look if the Texans can claw themselves into the playoffs, but it seems unlikely. Russell Wilson’s Seahawks are not clicking, and are well below expectations.

Frankly, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Brady locked up MVP for 2014. He is on a tear that shows no sign of ending, and with the running game of the Patriots looking like it can at least slightly balance the workload, Brady’s job will get easier. The upcoming stretch of games will have a big say in Brady’s candidacy (with Broncos, Colts, Lions, Packers and Chargers on the way), though after Sunday’s performance, Peyton will almost certainly have to think about preparing some postage for the MVP trophy.

Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images

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