John's Well-Educated Guesses: Patriots vs Dolphins
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| Awesome Jelly |
Have I been too lukewarm? Do my takes have to be hotter if I want play to improve? I'm willing to walk into hell fire for you if that's what it takes. So pack up some lembas bread and grab your best elven cloak because we're headed into Mordor. Some people like a good surprise. I don’t. If you want to watch the game with no stress then read on, because my takes are always right. Buckle up buckaroo.
I'm not going to bore you with the 'Pats after a loss' stats again. Apparently those mean jack. And as I said in this space last week, we don't actually get any better after a loss. We're just always dope so when you highlight a certain area the win percentage is going to stay high.
I will bore you with this, however. Or perhaps enrage you is a better word. The Patriots have gone 3 and out this year 44% of the time. That's almost every other series we're putting a tired (and slow and terrible) defense back out on the field. Only the Colts, Seahawks, and Bills have a higher three and out percentage. We're also converting third downs at a 28.6% clip. That's good for 29th in the league. The last five years we've been at 41.9% (8th), 46.7% (2nd), 29.7% (15th), 46.2% (4th), and 39.8% (12th). Yes, that will go up when Jules returns. He butters Tom's muffin on third down. And Gronk will be double teamed less. And Josh Gordon will be streaking nude up the sideline every snap. BUT you know who wont be coming back? Danny Playoff.
AmenBROla is actually lining up against us on Sunday, fleeing the miserable New England winters, unfun football practices, and a smokeshow girlfriend, for the many primal pleasures of south beach. Last year DOLA caught 22% of all our third down passing attempts. So even with all the toys coming out of the chest soon, that particular one was accidentally donated to good will.
Miami is 3-0, which you could argue is misleading because they beat up on the likes of the Jets, the Raiders, and the Titans, but that sounds a whole lot like not the Dolphins problem. You can only play the team that the schedule makers put in front of you so don't blame the Fins getting some well deserved hype. They took care of business just like they were supposed to. Maybe if the Pats took care of business against the pathetic Lions we wouldn't be looking at the most important and stressful home divisional game in two decades. And maybe if I took care of business I would have finished law school instead of getting high in my parents basement and calling it a gap year.
The Dolphins have a had a really hard time playing at The Razor in years past. They're 0 for their last 9, and they only beat us back in 2008 because they busted out the Wildcat on everyone's asses and we were running around like chickens with our dicks cut off. Dolphin Stadium, or Sun Life Stadium, or Hardrock Stadium or whatever the hell its called has always been a house of horrors for Tommy boy. The Razor, not so much. Even with a bearded Brady like we've seen this week.
But then again, we seem vulnerable right now. What a win this would be for the Fins, putting us 3 (!!!!) games back in the AFC East, while also holding a head to head win. If the Dolphins are anything like their doppelganger, they smell blood in the water. The Pats smell like something lately, but its typically only red if you've got a bad case of hemorrhoids. How will we respond? Is this team finally going to snap out of it and say we're the mother fucking Patriots for crying out loud!!! Or are we going to continue to be the uninspired group that appears to just be going through the motions?
The Bentley injury suuuuucks. He was the green dot call center of an already struggling defense. I hope HIGH (might have to start uncapping his name soon) can figure out why pizzas are round and the boxes are square or whatever it is he seems to contemplating for the first 3 seconds after each snap. I hope Van Noy can find his admittedly unexpected 2017 form. I hope that Brola's inside info doesn't have the impact that Fat Matt's did last week, otherwise the Dolphins defense is going to know every presnap look and every audible call. I hope the pacific is as blue as it is in my dreams. I hope...
But lets get real. Two losses in a row for our boys. Rare. Three losses in a row. Over Tom's dead body. Not when he's moving like this
Tom Brady got the moves @LacesOutShow pic.twitter.com/fIFzpNd9eX— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 28, 2018
Prediction: I'm staying away from Josh Gordon. It looks like he's gonna play, and I still question his involvement, but I'm just staying away. So instead I will say Tom is DIALED in on Sunday. This year he has gone 277/3/1, 234/2/0, 133/1/1. Not exactly MVP numbers. (I promise to stop caring about MVP. I promise to stop caring about MVP. I promise to stop caring about MVP) The days of middling quarterback play are expected to end in week 5. BREAKING: they end Sunday. Tom throws for 300+ yards, 3+ tuddies, and 0, I repeat, ZERO, picks for me to be right.
Prediction: Kenyan Drake takes a non solid Sunday morning beer shit on us. Gross? Yea maybe, but not as gross as our run D. Especially with little time to adjust to life without Bentley. Drake went for 5 carries and 3 yards last week. That is not a typo. In fact he hasn't gone over 53 yards once this year. He's only had a 100 yard rushing day twice in his career, so even though I want to predict triple digits, it might be a big ask. Why don't we say if he goes over 80 it's officially a bad day for the defense.
Prediction: I hope you're a prime member and can get this on free two day shipping.
https://www.amazon.com/Mayday-Industries-C-88QUAKE-Earthquake-Warning/dp/B00R4Z5GWQ
There is a storm coming Mr. Wayne. Cause of the quake is not the shifting of tectonic plates but the explosive force of not one but TWO Gronk spikes. He hasn't eaten in a while. The bad man is hungry.
Prediction: It will get dark tonight. The sun will come up tomorrow. I will drink too many Shipyard Pumpkin heads on Sunday. These are things we know. And more importantly, the Pats aren't about to go on a three game skid by losing at home to the Dolphins. It's not pretty, as sad as I am to report, but we hang on 24-20.
