John's Well Educated Guesses: Patriots at Bills - Recap

Awesome Jelly
The Johnny O heater continues! I really need to go to Vegas. If only casinos counted it as a "win" as liberally as I do. Nonetheless, another week of pretty good luke warm takes has come to a close and I'm left feeling proud. This is a thankless business, picking games. If I nail em, nobody cares. They expect me to get it right because I'm the "expert." Who said I'm an expert, you might ask. Me, that's who. And you can count that as another thing I've gotten right so far today.

Look, that wasn't the cleanest win. But in an NFL season you're going to have to grind out some victories. If you're the Pats you plan on winning 12+ games per regular season. How many of them, if we're being totally honest with ourselves, are going to be easy like Sunday mornings should be? Three? And even that feels generous. I'm talking hit the snooze button baby cause this one was over from the coin toss. Take this season so far. The Texans game got a little too close. Loss. Loss. Dolphins, there's you're laugher. Colts made it far too interesting with those interceptions. The Chiefs game was a nightmare to live through. The Bears were giving us the pipe early. And then you have Monday night. A 19 point victory. On paper, a blow out, but it sure wasn't fun. I don't think that can go in the easy breezy lemon squeezy bucket.

Point being, big wins are rare. Let alone games where you have the lead wire to wire and win by three scores. So stop complaining. Take em when you can get em. I don't care if she's a soft 6, if she asks to take you behind the bleachers to do mouth stuff, you let her.

Time to pay the piper.

Prediction: The defense has a big bounce back effort here. No more soft zone bullshit with tight ends wiping their ass with our coverage. No more quarterbacks running free like wild horses with the wind in their hair. The demands: Under 250 yards of total offense and under 14 points. And for a bonus point: we will have at least one pick. That was going to be my prediction if I hadn't used it last week. 

Result: Ok lets break out the quackulator. Shady did actually play, and they called some fancy pants runs against us, but the Bills totaled a pathetic 46 yards rushing. Unfortunately for your boy, they pulled off 287 yards in the air. Even though none of it was consequential, they did hit the over on the 250 yards call, coming in at 333. But I will take half a point for the under 14 points call, and you better believe I'm collecting that bonus point for the pick. Came out up 1.5

Prediction: Gronk plays as I said, and he will have a big night. I've been burned on this prediction before. He's been quiet by his standards this year. At least from a fantasy stand point. But not so much for his last three trips to Buffalo. From 2015 on hes gone 7 for 113 and a tuddy, 5 for 109 an d a tuddy, and 9 for 147. Over 80 yards a tuddy for me to hit.

Result: Second time Gronk has buried me this year. As I said in my ramblings he just doesn't look right. I knew he would play, but in hindsight I wish we had sat him down. I don't need him tweaking something making insane toe tapping grabs along the sideline against the freaking Bills. He finished with 3 for 43 and was kept out of the end zone for the 7th straight game. He needs a big second half or there are going to be a lot of very upset fantasy owners.

 Prediction: This one shouldn't be crazy but unfortunately it is. NO TURNOVERS. We haven't done this once all season, which is an embarrassment. But the Bills butter our bread, and on Monday night, we take care of our luggage.

Result: PING AGAIN! But by the skin of my teeth, holy hell. Tom got strip sacked. Which was a crazy play because was Gronk was NUDE for a tuddy, we took an illegal formation flag, and Tom fumbled but I couldn't tell if it was actually an incomplete pass. We jumped on the loose ball, but when the ref stepped up to the mic all he did was announce our penalty and say the Bills declined it. We fell on the ball so close to the LOS that I had to check the box score after the game to see if it even counted as a fumble. Tom also threw a pick on a two point conversion but THOSE DON'T COUNT. WE'RE FINE. EVERYTHING IS OK. NO TURNOVERS!!!

Prediction: I've been hesitant to predict blowouts any more. I've said in this space it sucks when I tell you guys its going to be a field trip at school, and instead it rains and the beach day gets canceled and you're stuck doing multiplication tables. But this week, I'm willing to pack my swim suit. We might lose the 38 streak, but only cause Brady will probably come out of this one. Pats 34 Bills 13

Result: I'm counting this. Put it on the board. Predicted a 21 point win, got a 19 point win. Missed by about a tuddy on each total but I was right there. However, I've always said I hate promising blowouts and not delivering. I even referenced that in this prediction. I packed my swim suit and we still got to hit the beach, but it was cloudy AF. I'm sorry about that. I want additional credit because I called Brady wouldn't even finish this game, but a 19 point win that feels like a gutter war is no 19 point win at all.