Road to MetLife Stadium Week Seven Scouting Report: New York Jets
When the Jets Have the Ball:
Geno Smith may still be a rookie, but he's gained valuable experience and confidence since his abysmal fourth quarter meltdown in September. The quarterback has shown some legitimate flashes during the Jets three wins, including an impressive game winning field goal drive in Week 5 against Atlanta. The problem has been the Jeckyl and Hyde nature of Geno's play; something demonstrated well by Geno following up his Atlanta performance with two interceptions in an ugly loss to previously winless Pittsburgh.
At his best, Geno is a dangerous running threat who can also make big plays with his arm. However, the rookie falls apart and commits turnovers at an alarming rate when faced with pressure. Perhaps nothing explains Geno's rookie season better than his stats in wins versus losses. In the Jets three wins (over Tampa, Buffalo and Atlanta), Geno has thrown 6 touchdowns, three interceptions, completed 64% of his passes and tallied a QB rating of 102. In losses, those numbers drop to a cataclysmic 1 touchdown, 7(!) interceptions, 55.3% passing and a 51.6 QB rating.
So how do the Patriots make sure Bad Geno shows up in Foxborough Sunday? It will take a significant team effort with two defensive studs (Jerod Mayo and Aqib Talib) either out or limited by injury. As stated before, keeping Geno from getting comfortable in the pocket is key. The Patriots defensive line doesn't necessarily need to rack up sacks, but they do need to consistently generate pressure to keep Geno from getting in rhythm. The loss of Vince Wilfork has lead to more attention and double teams for Chandler Jones, who will likely be going at it with rock solid left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson all night. How Jones and Ninkovich fare in their physical matchups will likely play a big factor into how well or poorly Geno plays.
If Talib does in fact miss this game, the secondary will be fortunate that the Jets lack any kind of dynamic weapon in the passing game. Talib has arguably been the team's MVP so far after shutting down Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Jimmy Graham in consecutive weeks. He matched up with Santonio Holmes in Week 2, but Holmes is out with a hamstring injury. This means Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan will be taking on the likes of Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, David Nelson and Clyde Gates. Devin McCourty will have to keep an eye on Jeff Cumberland, who is inconsistent but has threatening athleticism. These are matchups that the Patriots cornerbacks should handle, although they'd certainly like a pass rush to help them out.
It also wouldn't surprise me to see Rex try to get former Patriot Zach Sudfeld a eff-you touchdown against the team that cut him, because Rex does things like that.
The Jets will likely try to protect Geno by establishing a power running game. The running game hasn't been particularly impressive this season, but they'd be foolish not to test the Patriots injury weakened interior. It's currently unknown whether Tommy Kelly will be back from his knee injury, but it's well established that Vince Wilfork is gone for the season. If Kelly doesn't go, the Patriots will once again start a pair of undrafted rookies in Chris Jones and Joe Vellano who have struggled to hold up against the run. If those two continue to get pushed around in the running game, look for big Marcus Forston to get a chance on early downs.
Those gaps will also have to be plugged by someone other than Jerod Mayo, who is out for the season after tearing a pectoral muscle (ouch). Brandon Spikes will likely have a more prominent role as a run stuffer in the base defense, as will Donta' Hightower. The loss of Mayo will likely mean more reps for both Dane Fletcher and athletic rookie Jamie Collins, whose role has quietly expanded the past few weeks due to his athletic ability in coverage.
When the Patriots have the ball:
A lot was said about the inept offense in their week 2 matchup, but in hindsight both defenses have proven that their dominating performances were no fluke. The Jets defense have been excellent for most of the season, especially against the run, and have kept the team competitive despite it's wildly inconsistent offense. On the other side, the Patriots are clearly a better offensive team now that the rookies have had a little time to get acclimated and learn from their mistakes, but the offense is still far from a polished product.
The Patriots improved offensive play against New Orleans was aided by Stevan Ridley establishing himself in the ground game. Ridley is clearly the best running back on the team as long as Shane Vereen remains sidelined. Establishing Ridley is helpful in many ways: it helps the offense keep it's third downs in manageable distances, it opens up play action, and it's especially valuable in the red zone. Ridley is especially important on that front, as he has a nose for the end zone that LeGarrette Blount lacks. Ridley gives the team a needed ability to punch the ball into the end zone and his first two touchdowns of the season were a godsend for the league's 30th ranked red zone offense.
Unfortunately for Ridley, running into the Jets defense is generally like trying to sprint head first into a stone wall. That's largely because the Jets have hit two home runs in recent drafts on first rounders Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Both of those guys have been dominant, disruptive players throughout the season, and they've combined with quietly steady nose tackle Damon Harrison to form an elite defensive line.
As if that wasn't enough, the Jets have a pair of athletic and physical inside linebackers flying around to clean up whatever the defensive line doesn't get to. The Jets have enjoyed a nice comeback season from David Harris and have seen DeMario Davis emergence as a contributor in his second season. The Jets would like to see a little more from edge setting linebackers Quinton Coples and Calvin Pace, although Coples has flashed his first round talent at times.
The Jets have been weaker against the pass this year than past seasons. Antonio Cromartie is coming off of a poor performance against Pittsburgh and has struggled while playing through a knee injury. Kyle Wilson has been a bit of a first round bust and the rest of the cornerbacks are largely unproven. Its a group that is certainly beatable, even if the Patriots are again without Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski. Of course, getting open hasn't been the issue for Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, whose struggles have mostly come from drops. Catching the ball will be key on Sunday, as the Jets defense is too good for the Patriots to miss their opportunities to make plays.
Throwing against the Jets means handling the Jets pressure, which often comes in the form of unpredictable and aggressive blitzing. The Patriots might have beaten Rex's brother Rob Ryan and his Saints defense when it counted, but Rob's defense did get 5 sacks of Tom Brady, several of which came when the offensive line was overwhelmed by blitzes. The offensive line will have to make sure it's shored up whatever issues bothered them last week, because that's a weakness Rex will be sure to test.
Special Teams/Coaching/Intangibles
If this game turns into a defensive struggle, the Patriots will look to rookie punter Ryan Allen to continue to give them good field position. Allen has played exceptionally well in back to back weeks and will look to keep that streak going in a game where field position could play a significant factor.
If both defenses come as advertised, special teams could also play a factor in the return game. With points hypothetically hard to come by, a big return could bring a huge momentum swing in a close game. The Patriots will have to rely on Julian Edelman and the punt return game here, as LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden have generated little to no threat returning kickoffs this year. The Patriots will look for Stephen Gostkowski to keep Clyde Gates from getting a chance to return any kicks, as Gostkowski has 26 touchbacks in his 32 kickoffs.
Belichick is clearly a superior Head Coach to Rex Ryan in every way, but Ryan has proven that he has the defensive chops to give Brady and the Patriots trouble in the past. If the Patriots can hold up against the Jets pressure, Brady should be able to make plays in the passing game. It will be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels calls this game against an aggressive and talented defensive front.
Finally, the Jets will enjoy the homefield advantage of MetLife Stadium in this one. No matter the team's records, Patriots-Jets is always an anticipated battle, and the crowd will surely be up for the chance to take down their hated and wounded rivals. The Patriots young players will have to once again stand up to the challenge of playing in a hostile environment.
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