Top Five free agent wide receivers the Patriots could sign
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| Brad Mills/ USA Today Sports |
Unfortunately, this idea is contrasted with a less than ideal cap situation. Currently with only $3.9 million in space under the projected cap, the Pats will likely have to make some cost-cutting moves just to afford to compete for it's own key free agents (Aqib Talib, Julian Edelman, LeGarrette Blount to name a few), let alone to supplement the rest of the roster with free agent talent.
With all those factors in mind, here's a look at the top five (semi) realistic free agent wide receivers the Patriots could target this offseason. (NOTE: semi-realistic means no Eric Decker. We can't afford him. It's time to let that dream die). The Patriots invested a lot in their receivers last offseason, signing Danny Amendola to a five year, $31 million deal, drafting both Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce and finding undrafted free agent Kenbrell Thompkins. Of course, Amendola battled injuries and wasn't himself in 2013, while all three rookies struggled at times with the steep learning curve of the NFL. The Pats will likely be counting on internal improvement from those young players, but certainly could stand to bring in a veteran to supplement them and make life easier for Brady.
1. Hakeem Nicks
This is all contingent on the league-wide market for Nicks being slow. Nicks is a former first round pick with two 1,000 yard seasons and a Super Bowl ring on his resume, but back-to-back injury plagued seasons have decreased his value somewhat. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the former Giant, unsatisfied with the market, take a one year "prove it" deal to try to rehabilitate his value and hit the market again next year.
If that is how this plays out, the Patriots could emerge as an intriguing destination for him. When healthy and focused, Nicks brings an explosive big play dynamic that was simply missing from the Pats offense in 2013. His ability to use his size and leaping ability to make contested catches down the field make him a quarterback's best friend; a playmaker who is always a threat regardless of the coverage. Tom Brady hasn't had a receiver like that since Randy Moss and would certainly embrace adding that explosiveness back to the offense.
For a more in-depth look at Nicks' potential fit in New England, read my take in our "Call to Arms" series here.
2. Jeremy Maclin
Like Nicks, Maclin would likely be way out of the Patriots price range if not for some injury-related extenuating circumstances. In Maclin's case, the five year veteran tore an ACL in training camp, forcing him to miss the entire 2013 season. Without knowing how healthy he'll be, teams will likely shy away from giving Maclin a big, long-term offer. Therefore, it's likely that Maclin also takes a short-term deal to prove he's healthy before hitting the market again.
Could the Patriots swoop in and capitalize on that situation? While not as big as Nicks, Maclin would certainly bring explosive speed and big-play ability to a Patriots offense that could use a jolt. He's a versatile weapon with a lot of run-after-the-catch ability, a skillset that certainly would fit the Patriots precision attack. He's also been a good target in the red zone, averaging 7 touchdowns a season during his last three (mostly) healthy seasons.
Maclin and the Eagles have both stated their mutual interest for the receiver to stay in Philadelphia, decreasing the odds of him teaming up with Brady. However, the Eagles have some interesting decisions to make themselves this offseason, including whether they can afford to keep both Maclin and fellow free agent Riley Cooper. My gut feeling is he stays in Philly, as it's hard to imagine him leaving the Eagles after seeing what Chip Kelly's offense can do from the sidelines last year. If not, he could become a dark horse candidate to join the Pats.
3. Julian Edelman
Edelman represents the most unique Patriots free agent situation in recent memory. A converted college quarterback, Edelman flashed his ability and versatility throughout his first four injury plagued years, playing everywhere from slot receiver to cornerback. However, staying on the field was a big issue for Edelman; after seeing 54 targets his rookie year, he saw 54 over his next three seasons combined. In fact, Edelman's lengthy injury history likely influenced the Patriots decision to go out and sign Amendola to counter the loss of Wes Welker.
However, Edelman finally got some luck in 2013, staying healthy the entire season despite everyone else on the offense dropping like flies. As a result, he became Tom Brady's go-to receiver, gobbling up 105 receptions, 1,056 yards and 6 touchdowns on a whopping 151 targets. He was arguably the team's offensive MVP (excluding Brady, of course) and also continued to chip in excellent work as a punt returner.
Despite putting up that kind of season, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Edelman's foray into free agency. Will the Patriots, having already committed 5 years and $31 million to Amendola, be comfortable sinking more money into the slot position? Would Edelman even consider coming back for less money than Amendola, a player he clearly outplayed in 2013? Will the Patriots prioritize keeping Aqib Talib over him, leaving Edelman to test the notoriously soft market for slot receivers? How much will Edelman's considerable injury history hurt him in negotiations? Will other teams consider his statistical success a byproduct of playing with Brady?
This will likely depend on the market. All it will take is for one team (perhaps Bill O'Brien's Texans?) to swoop in and make Edelman a quality offer, as the Patriots will likely be hesistant to commit too much money to the slot posistion. It would certainly be odd if Edelman becomes a "sign at all costs" guy merely a year after the Pats barely blinked at losing Wes Welker.
However, slot receivers rarely get paid on the free agent market, and Edelman's injury history is a very legitimate red flag for anyone looking to make a big investment in him. If this scares the rest of the league, it could push Edelman right back to Foxboro and Tom Brady. Stay tuned on this one.
4. Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders came thiiiiiiis close to joining the Patriots last offseason, as the Patriots signed the restricted free agent to a $2.5 million offer sheet last spring. After mulling their options, the Steelers decided to match, keeping Sanders in Pittsburgh for one more year. Had they declined to match, Sanders would have become a Patriot, with the Pats sending over a second round pick in return.
This move really demonstrated Bill Belichick's interest in Sanders, as a second round pick would be a significant investment for someone who had never been more than a third receiver. Pittsburgh was rewarded for their decision, as Sanders stepped up in the absence of Mike Wallace and put up career highs in receptions (67), yards (740) and touchdowns (6).
Sanders skillset would make him an intriguing fit in New England. At 5'11" and 180 pounds, he's not the biggest target, but he boasts explosive speed and quickness that translates into missed tackles and yards after the catch. He's excelled in the short passing game in Pittsburgh, particularly on the kind of bubble screens that have been a Patriots staple in the past. Sanders also brings additional value on special teams as a solid kick returner, which will fill another position of need for the Pats.
For a more in-depth look at Sanders, read our Michael Hamm's take in our "Call to Arms" series here.
5. Jacoby Jones
I considered putting Anquan Boldin in this spot, but he looks like a near certainty to resign in San Francisco. Instead, I'm putting his old Super Bowl teammate, Jacoby Jones, up for consideration.
Jones has been somewhat of a difficult player to figure out in his career. He practically tortured Houston fans in his five seasons there, combining tantalizing explosive talent with maddening inconsistency, something that especially manifested itself in dropped passes.
Baltimore picked him up for cheap and were rewarded with several huge plays during their run to the Super Bowl. It was Jones who caught that 70 yard, game-tying touchdown in the final minute of regulation against Denver in the wild card round. He followed that up with a Super Bowl for the ages, catching a 56 yard touchdown and returning a kickoff 109 yards to the house.
An injury plagued 2013 season likely brought Jones' value back down to earth, but the receiver could still see himself squeezed out of Baltimore. The Ravens have a little bit of cap room (currently estimated at $11.8 million) but Dennis Pitta, Daryl Smith, Eugene Monroe and Arthur Jones all figure to be higher priorities to resign. As a result, Jones could be a walking big play for hire this offseason.
As always, Jones' potential fit in New England will be reliant on the market for him. New England certainly won't overpay him based on that one, magical Super Bowl run. However, if Jones' age (29) and inconsistency keeps his market low, could the Patriots find a bargain in him? At the very least, Jones would bring an explosive dynamic to New England's return game that's been missing for quite some time. We all know how much Bill Belichick values special teams, and Jones is a legitimate weapon in the return game. He's also a serviceable receiver capable of making big plays and taking the top off a defense, another skill that was sorely lacking from the Patriots offense.
Honorable Mentions: Anquan Boldin (we can dream, right?), Riley Cooper, Dexter McCluster, James Jones, Brandon LeFell
