More Wilfork contract details: Pats will face another big decision in 2015
The full details of Vince Wilfork's new three year deal with the Patriots are finally out. Here's the updated breakdown.
In 2014, Big Vince gets a $1.3 million signing bonus, $1.3 million base salary, a $300k weight clause, a $200k workout bonus, a $500k bonus triggered the first game he's on the 53 man roster, and $87.5k bonuses for each game he's on the active 46 man roster. According to my abacus, that totals out to $5 million in cash if he plays all 16 games.
On top of that are $3 million in playing time incentives that will determine whether the nose tackle equals the cash he would have made under his old contract. If Vince plays 50% of the defensive snaps, he'll make $500k extra. If he plays 60%, that number jumps to $1.25 million. He then gets $2 million for 70% of the snaps, and $2.5 million for playing 70% of the snaps coupled with an appearance in the divisional playoff round. Finally, Vince gets an additional $500k if he plays 70% of the snaps and the Patriots finish in the Top 10 in scoring defense.
By technicality, Wilfork is only penciled in for a $6.7 million cap hit, currently saving the Pats $4.9 million against the cap. However, that number only factors in per game bonuses for four games (the number of games Vince played in 2013) and doesn't factor in any potential playing time incentives. That number will be higher, but how much higher will depend how how quickly and effectively Wilfork is able to return.
So Wilfork makes $8M in 2014 if he plays every game, 70% of the snaps, and Pats make the divisional playoffs and rank Top 10 in scoring D.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 29, 2014
It's important to note that the $3.6 in dead money remaining from Vince's previous deal gets accelerated to their cap this year. In the scenario Breer highlights, Vince's cap hit would balloon all the way up to $10.23 million, only saving the Pats $1.7 million from his previous deal.
Considering the big nose tackle is 32 and coming off of a serious Achilles injury, that's not likely to happen. A more likely scenario is Wilfork starting the season on the PUP list and missing at least a few games. Even if we're optimistic and pencil in Wilfork for a Week 5 return (he was injured in Week 4 last year, and the injury typically has a recovery timetable of a year), that would drop his pay dramatically. Not only would Vince lose $350k in per game bonuses (four missed games), but he'll also have already missed 25% of the season before playing a single snap, making it an uphill climb to reach 70% of the season total even before factoring in the team likely giving him a reduced workload to ease his way back.
Even in our most optimistic estimated scenario for Vince (he returns in Week 5 and is able play often and well), the Patriots save some money against the cap. Under that scenario, Wilfork plays 12 games ($1.05 million in per game bonuses) and, say, 60% of the defensive snaps ($1.25 million). In that scenario, Wilfork makes $5.9 million, with the $3.6 in dead money pushing his cap hit to $9.5 million. Still pricey, but $2.1 million less against the cap than his previous contract, and this is a very optimistic hypothetical scenario for Vince.
The interesting decision comes next year, as Wilfork is due for a $4 million roster bonus on the 2015 league year. Wilfork will then have a $3 million base salary, with $500k in per game bonuses and the same weight and workout bonuses. He also gets another $500k if he plays 70% of the snaps and the Patriots return to the divisional round of the playoffs. Essentially, the Patriots will have to choose to either cut him or pay him a maximum of $8.5 million for 2015.
If Wilfork sticks for the 2015 season, he'll become more affordable in 2016. With a $5 million salary and the same per game, weight and workout bonuses, his cost drops down to $6 million that year ($6.5 if Wilfork again plays 70% of the snaps for a divisional playoff team).
My take: the Pats have bought themselves a year to see how Vince does in his return from a serious injury. If he can be close to the run stuffing monster he was before his injury, he'll be well worth those prices, even though the Patriots went a little out of character by giving that much money to player with Wilfork's injury circumstances. If Wilfork doesn't look like the same player, the Pats will most likely have to swallow hard and part ways with the captain next year.
