Patriots Draft Needs: Positional review- Quarterback
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| Could LSU's Zach Mettenberger be Brady's backup next year? AP Photo/Phil Sandlin |
Position: Quarterback
Currently under contract:
Tom Brady (signed through 2017)
Ryan Mallett (signed through 2014)
Need: Short-term: Low-moderate Long term: High
Positional Outlook:
The Patriots interest in drafting a quarterback this year is a very poorly kept secret, and a quick look at the current roster quickly reveals why. They only have two quarterbacks currently on the roster, with primary backup Ryan Mallett set to become a free agent at the end of the year. Mallett was seen by some as a first round talent coming out of Arkansas in 2011, and the Patriots snapped him up in the third round that year with high hopes that his development would bring significant trade value. Unfortunately neither has happened, with Mallett putting out middling film the rare times he's seen action. With Mallett unlikely to bring more than a late round pick in return, the Pats would probably be best served by keeping him for the final year of his deal as Brady's backup, creating a need for a new backup in 2015.
Why try to find that future backup now, despite Mallett being under contract and ready to do the job for this coming season? For starters, the Patriots likely want to capitalize on this year's deep class of quarterbacks. While there might not be a clear-cut, can't miss franchise QB in this draft, there are a number of intriguing prospects with upside available, some of them likely in the middle and even late rounds. The overall depth of this years draft could also be a factor, increasing the likelihood of a good QB prospect falling down the board.
Finally, drafting the future backup now gives the team and player essentially a "redshirt" year, allowing that prospect a full year to get up to speed with the NFL game and the playbook before being asked to be the full-time backup. Doing so should help that prospect be better prepared for the job if they are unfortunately pressed into duty. It also helps them avoid giving that important job to a true rookie next year, when there most likely won't be as strong a crop of QBs to choose from.
As for those who favor the Pats trying to go the Aaron Rodgers route and finding the potential successor to Brady now, I don't know if there's any quarterback in this draft class that I'd necessarily plan around as my future franchise guy. There's a possibility that one of the Johnny Manziel/Blake Bortles/Teddy Bridgewater trio falls into the 20s, and maybe even out of the first round entirely, but that's because all three prospects have legitimate flaws that should make a team at least somewhat wary of building their future entirely around them. With Brady still playing at a very high level and showing little sign of serious decline, I think finding his next backup should a much higher priority than finding his future successor at this point.
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| Charles LeClaire/USA Today Sports |
Ideal fit: Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
Savage had a long, disjointed journey to his senior stardom at Pitt, a concern that has lead most to rank him as a likely fifth round pick. After being named to the All America Freshman Team in 2009 at Rutgers, Savage struggled early the following season, and was benched after suffering a hand injury. This led him to transfer to Arizona, losing eligibility for the 2011 season in the process. However, pass-happy head coach Mike Stoops was fired in the midst of the 2011 season, replaced by Rich Rodriguez and his read-option offense. Seeing the writing on the wall, Savage left Arizona, and had his request for a hardship waiver denied by the NCAA, preventing his preferred choice of returning to Rutgers. Instead, Savage spent 2012 as a redshirt at Pitt, before earning the starting job in 2013 and exploding for 2,958 yards, 21 touchdowns and only nine interceptions.
The upside he displayed in 2013 for Pitt makes it hard to believe he could slip that far. As far as pure arm talent goes, Savage can go toe-to-toe with any quarterback in this class. He has the prototypical size the Patriots have favored at the position under Bill Belichick (at 6'4, 228, Savage is almost the exact same size as Brady) and can make every throw in an NFL playbook. He also displayed solid poise and presence in the pocket at Pitt, a must for any quarterback making the transition from college to the pros. He's not spooked by the pass rush, and actually displays a Brady-like knack at using subtle movements to get out trouble.
The biggest knock on Savage is his relative inexperience compared to some of the draft's other top quarterbacks. However, that weakness would be alleviated by being drafted in New England, where he'd get a full year to master the playbook and get coached up on his mechanics before taking on any real responsibility. His upside is obvious, and with good coaching he has the potential to be just as good, if not better, than any of second tier of QB prospects (Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Mettenberger, etc) expected to go in the second and third rounds.
The fact that he's expected to go later in the draft is, to quote Brandon Spikes, the icing on the cake, as it would allow the Pats to use their earlier round picks to address more immediate needs on the roster. It's rare that a quarterback with this amount of upside is available that late in the draft, and could be a perfect marriage of need and value for the Patriots.
Other potential fits:
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| Daniel Shirley/USA Today Sports |
Considered by most to be available in the fourth/fifth round range, Murray would be ranked higher if not for a torn ACL in November. However, all reports on his recovery have been extremely positive, and he's remarkably on schedule to throw at Georgia's April 16th Pro Day.
While he'll likely be drafted in the same range as Savage, Murray is in many ways the polar opposite as a prospect. While many are concerned about the instability of Savage's career and relative lack of experience, Murray was a productive four-year starter playing in a pro-style offense against SEC competition at Georgia. However, while Savage has prototypical NFL size and a "plus" NFL arm, Murray stands just 6'1", 207, faces concerns about his small hands, and has an arm that is adequate but won't stand out at the pro level.
With that said, there's plenty to like about Murray; he's a smart, tough kid who demonstrated the poise you like to see in a quarterback at Georgia. Best of all, Murray figures to slide into becoming a pretty good value pick thanks to his knee injury, which would be a non-issue in New England with Mallett still in place for 2014.
Brett Smith, Wyoming
Smith hasn't received as much buzz as many of his peers thanks to his playing in the Mountain West Conference at Wyoming, but the gritty Smith has shown plenty of good things in his three years as the starter there. He threw for 3,375 yards and 29 touchdowns while completing 62.7% of his passes last year, utilizing his solid skill-set. Smith isn't necessarily above average at any specific thing at the NFL level, but he has a good enough arm with solid accuracy, with deceptive athleticism and the smarts to read defenses well. He also displayed the kind of work ethic and leadership expected of a quarterback in his college career.
Smith's ceiling is likely limited to being a backup in the NFL, with most experts having him available in the sixth round. There's value in that range for a prospect with limited upside but a decent, Brian Hoyer-like skillset to coach up and mold.
Zach Mettenberger- LSU
Like Murray, Mettenberger would likely be ranked higher by scouts if not for a torn ACL suffered late in 2013 season. As a result, there's a wide range of projections concerning where he'll be drafted, with some going as a high as the second round, and some seeing him drop to the third or even fourth rounds. Some think he would have had a chance to sneak into the first round if not for his knee injury.
There's certainly potential to like in Mettenberger, and one thing that will certainly appeal to the Patriots is his size. At 6'5", 225, Mettenberger has the protypical size the Pats seek in their quarterbacks, and he has an NFL level arm to go with it. He improved throughout his two seasons as the LSU starter, playing in a pro-style offense against SEC competition. His 2013 numbers? 3,082 yards, 22 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions, while completing 64.8% of his passes.
Mettenberger does bring some character concerns due to his past. He was dismissed from Georgia's program in 2010 after an arrest for sexual battery and alcohol consumption, and spent a year at Butler Community College before returning to the SEC at LSU. He's kept his nose clean since, and showed signs of increasing maturity and leadership in Baton Rouge, but it's another thing to keep in mind when evaluating a still-developing prospect.
How realistic is Mettenberger to the Patriots? That depends on how long the LSU Tiger stays on the board. It would be somewhat surprising to see the Pats go any higher than the third round on a QB, but they've shown a willingness in the past to take a shot on QB's in the third round (with Ryan Mallett and Kevin O'Connell being two examples), which sounds like just about where Mettenberger will go. Third round is a little two rich for my tastes, considering some of the prospects who should be available in the later rounds, but if the Patriots think Mettenberger is their guy (they took a longer look at him during an in-stadium visit last Tuesday), they won't hesitate to pull the trigger.
Potential Reach
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| AP Photo/Dave Martin |
AJ McCarron- Alabama
It was only a matter of time until the Alabama star joined Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles and others as quarterbacks the Patriots have worked out, something that happened last Wednesday. At the right value, I do think McCarron could serve the job as Brady's backup. However, I wouldn't even begin to consider him until the fifth round, and certainly wouldn't view him as a viable long-term plan to succeed Brady.
McCarron has a lower ceiling than either Savage or Murray, but he displays enough good traits to make you think he could stick around at the next level. His doesn't possess great arm talent and is very average athletically, but he was smart and efficient running Alabama's offense, albeit while surrounded by tons of talent. He is a good game manager, and I do mean that as a complement.
However, how high of a pick would you be willing to use on a player whose ceiling is most likely "good backup, so-so starter" at the NFL level? Considering both the superior upside of some of McCarron's peers in that mid-tier of the draft and the quality talent available in the earlier rounds at other positions, I wouldn't even consider it until the fifth round, and then only if Savage and Murray are gone. If predraft projections are to be trusted (questionable, at best), McCarron will be going somewhere in the third/fourth round range. If that's true, I hope the Pats stay away.
Potential Sleeper
Keith Wenning- Ball State
Wenning is facing an uphill climb just to get drafted because of the level of competition he faced at Ball State, but he flashed some impressive things at the East-West Shrine game that got some scouts attention. Wenning doesn't quite have a canon, but he has a solid arm that won't hold him back at the next level, and he's displayed nice accuracy and timing in the pre-draft process. The positives in his skillset certainly manifested themselves in statistical production; Wenning threw for 4,148 yards, 35 touchdowns and only seven picks last season, while completing 64% of his passes. You expect a guy coming from a small school to dominate their level of competition and Wenning did just that in the MAC. For a guy that could go undrafted, there's some good upside here.
High risk, high reward
Johnny Manziel- Texas A&M
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| Like a boss |
Ok, so it's looking unlikely Manziel falls far enough to even enter the Patriots discussion. Lets put that aside for the sake of discussion, as Manziel offers by far the biggest high risk/high reward proposition of any quarterback this year.
There are reasons to be concerned: Manziel has a slight frame 6'0", 207 and an aggressive approach that often exposes him to big hits, hits that will be much harder to withstand at the next level. He also has a brash, cocky personality and didn't always display the maturity you'd like to see from the face of your franchise, which Manziel certainly will become wherever he winds up thanks to his already immense celebrity. Lets be honest, Manziel doesn't do anything quietly; if he busts, he'll likely bust spectacularly.
However, all Manziel did was produce and win while at A&M, and he's aced every test so far in the predraft circuit. He showed improved passing mechanics at his Pro Day, and possesses excellent athleticism and the ability to improvise and throw on the run. He also proved time and time again to be a gamer in college, a quality that generally translates well to the pros.
Like I said, Manziel most likely doesn't make it out of the top 10, especially given how he's impressed this spring, and this becomes a moot discussion. However, if he slips, could the Patriots be tempted enough by his upside to peg him as Brady's successor? I personally don't think so, especially with the number of more immediate needs that could be filled with an early round pick, but every option is always on the table and under consideration for the Patriots. Food for thought...
Agree? Think I'm an idiot? Think I missed a prospect? Let us know what you think in the comments and on social media (I'm @therealnedbrady). Be sure to check back tomorrow, when I review the running back position.
