Patriots Draft Needs: Positional review- Defensive end
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| Pairing Ealy's explosiveness with Chandler Jones would be nightmare fuel for opposing quarterbacks. |
Position: Defensive end
Currently under contract:
Chandler Jones (signed through 2015)
Rob Ninkovich (signed through 2016)
Michael Buchanan (signed through 2016)
Jake Bequette (signed through 2015)
Need: Short-term: moderate-high, Long-term: moderate
Position outlook:
The Patriots have an excellent starting duo of Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich signed through the next two seasons, but depth is a serious issue. Michael Buchanan has some potential, but wasn't ready to contribute as a rookie last year, forcing the team to sign 34 year-old Andre Carter. Carter looked like he was running on empty, but still had enough to remain ahead of Jake Bequette on the depth chart. Bequette has made no noteworthy contributions to the team since being drafted in the 2012 third round, and it would be surprising if he makes the team this year.
The result? Jones wound up playing a whopping 98% of the Patriots defensive snaps, while Ninkovich played 95%. According to ProFootballFocus, they had the two highest season snap totals for defensive linemen since the site's inception in 2008.
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| Jones and Ninkovich are entrenched, but they need some help |
One lesson to gleamed from Seattle's' dominant season is how much having strength in numbers can enhance the effectiveness of a pass rush. The Seahawks had four quality edge rushers in Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons, and they rotated all four players judiciously throughout each game. As a result, Seattle was able to overwhelm their opponents with wave after wave of fresh, energized pass rushers. Of course, it helps when you have talents like Bennett and Avril in your rotation, but Seattle's approach makes logical sense: pass rushing takes a lot of effort each snap, and tends to noticeably decline with fatigue.
There are many reasons to think adding one more guy who can really get after the quarterback could be the missing piece to turn this from a good defense to a great one. Creating a three man rotation at DE would likely enhance both Ninkovich and Jones' play due to the rest factor. It would also give the team an alternative on passing downs to Ninkovich, who is a solid effort rusher but not a mismatch for tackles. Couple that with the Patriots expected signing of Will Smith sometime in the future, and the Patriots would run four deep at the position, with two excellent run defenders (Ninkovich, Smith) and two pass rushing demons (Jones, draft pick).
Adding a pass rusher would also fit nicely with the direction they've already taken this offseason. The Pats bolstered their secondary by signing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, a shutdown duo that should be among the league's best. Adding another playmaker to your defensive end rotation could make this defense scary, with a suddenly deep and explosive stable of pass rushers forcing quarterbacks into uncomfortable rushed throws into what should be an opportunistic lockdown secondary.
I wouldn't discount the possibility of Buchanan improving enough to earn a role either. Some thought he had the potential to be an early round pick prior to his senior season, when he broke his jaw, causing it to be wired-shut and necessitating a week-long liquid diet before the season. As a result, he lost 20 important pounds right before the season, something that hurt his ability to disengage from blockers and contributed to a disappointing season that sunk his draft stock. He clearly needs some time in the weight room (and to learn how to hold contain against the run), but he has an impressive combination of speed and length as a pass rusher.
However, you can never have too many pass rushers, and it would be foolish to let the potential of a seventh round pick prevent you from adding an impact player to fill this void. As an aside, this is why you don't see Notre Dame's Stephon Tuitt, a player linked to the Pats in some mock drafts, in this article. I think Tuitt has the chance to be an excellent player, but most think he's best suited to play a five technique in a 3-4. The Patriots do occasionally mix in some 3-4 looks, but they've transitioned to being a base 4-3 team, with Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins standing out as two noteworthy examples of their attempts to get quicker, more explosive and, naturally, smaller in the front seven. What the Patriots really need is someone who can bring the heat off the edge, and that's not Tuitt's strong suit.
One final thing to note: adding a defensive end would insure the team against any signs of decline from Rob Ninkovich. Nink had an exceptional season last year, but he's already 30 years old and signed through the next three seasons. Adding someone to help reduce his workload should help maximize what the Patriots get out of him for the next few years, and could wind up extending his career.
Ideal fit: Kony Ealy, Missouri
Ealy could be the most explosive pass rusher available by the time the Patriots pick comes around, and his upside would be hard to pass up. Ealy is an explosive speed rusher, with a first step that will put NFL tackles on their heels from day one. He also has ideal length for the position, something he used well not only as a pass rusher, but also by batting down 13 passes in his two years as a starter.
What's scary is that Ealy still has plenty of room to get better. His 6'4", 274 pound frame has room to add muscle, a la Chandler Jones in 2012, which will help him both by adding more power to his pass rush and also in holding up better against the run. He already possesses enough raw ability to get after the passer on talent and effort alone, but he's in the process of developing some moves and counters. Combining his explosiveness with mastery of the moves he's been implementing (spin move, power slap, swim move) could make for a pass rushing terror, especially when paired across from Chandler Jones.
Want an idea of how good Ealy could be? The name CBS Sports pegs as a comparison is Robert Quinn, an athletic freak who exploded for 19 sacks in St. Louis last year and arguably could have been Defensive Player of the Year. That's the kind of upside were talking about here.
Will Ealy be available when the Patriots pick at 29? It's certainly possible, although it's very difficult to predict the back of the first round. Some projections have him going earlier in the 20s, (I've seen multiple analysts peg him to the Cardinals at 20) but many have him falling to the back of the first round and even into the early portion of Day 2. It will take a special prospect to entice the Patriots to pick at 29 rather than trading back in this deep a draft, but Ealy's tantalizing upside could be worth it.
Other potential fits:
Demarcus Lawrence, Boise State
Lawrence might not have quite the upside that Ealy has, but he's a similar prospect who may be even more pro-ready. Some guys simply know how to get after the passer and Lawrence is one of them. His two year career at Boise State (prior to that, he had dominated at Butler Community College) stands as evidence: Lawrence leaves the school with 20 sacks, 138 tackles (34 for a loss), three blocked kicks and seven forced fumbles in his two seasons there.
Athleticism like what Lawrence has is rarely found in defensive ends. He has good burst of the line and rangy speed, which combines with phenomenal body control, balance and flexibility bending around the edge to make him a nightmare to contain in protection. He's also more developed as a pure pass rusher than Ealy, with a rip move, spin move, swim move and club in his arsenal, and he brings an infectious swagger to a defense.
At 6'3", 251, Lawrence is a bit smaller than Ealy, but his frame has plenty of room to add muscle, which will happen with time in an NFL strength training program. However, he is deceptively strong for his size, and is better than you'd expect at breaking free from blocks in the running game. Part of that is due to his excellent length (33 3/4" arms) and big (11") quick hands, both of which he puts to good use.
The biggest knock on Lawrence, other than his tweener size, are that there are some character concerns. He was suspended for three separate games at Boise, including their bowl game against Washington in 2012, for "violation of unspecified team rules", a vague designation that could mean anything from a failed drug test to disruptive behavior in practice/meetings. The Patriots surely did their homework on that when they worked out several prospects on Boise's campus earlier this month. Lawrence was not present at that workout, but the Boise coaches were, and Ian Rappoport has reported that the Patriots will take a closer look at Lawrence with a scheduled private visit.
Most projections have Lawrence going early in the second round, but his stock has been rising in recent weeks. If there's a run on pass rushers early, it could be enough to push him into the first round. I'd target Ealy first because of his slightly higher upside, but Lawrence is another guy who would be hard to turn at 29, and especially if he's available in the second round.
Scott Crichton, Oregon State
Crichton doesn't have the pure explosiveness of Ford or Ealy, and thus has a lower ceiling than either of them. However, he's an impressive player in his own right, and one who could step right in and produce as a rookie.
The attribute that really stands out with Crichton is his motor, which has one speed: high. Few ends can match his snap-to-snap intensity, and that effort combines with a very good first step and impressive power to make Chrichton a disruptive pass rusher. He uses his long arms and strong hands well to gain leverage under a tackle's pads, and makes impact plays when he gets there (10 forced fumbles in his collegiate career).
While his lack of natural explosiveness could prevent him from superstardom, Chrichton certainly has the talent to be an very productive and reliable player. He'll only get better if he can add some variety to his pass rushing moves, where he's overly reliant on power so far in his development. He also projects as one of the more well-rounded ends in this draft, with more consistency against the run than the speed reliant Ealy or Ford.
Crichton is widely expected to go in the top half/middle of the second round, and he could provide a terrific value there if the Patriots miss out on Ealy/Ford. He looks like a great fit on paper in New England, where his relentless motor would standout even more playing in a rotational role. He'd also benefit greatly from playing across from Chandler Jones, as he was the focal point of every opponent's protection schemes while at Oregon State.
Jeremiah Attaochu, Georgia Tech
Attaochu is yet another undersized speed demon edge rusher available in this draft. His slender 6'3", 253 pound frame has led many to think he might be best suited to play linebacker, but his explosiveness and length off the edge could make him a dynamic addition as a pure pass rushing end.
Attaochu may be a little more risky than some of the other prospects mentioned here. He's simply too small to be a realistic option at end on running downs right now, and would clearly benefit from a year or two in an NFL weight training program. He's also a bit raw as a prospect, with a relatively unrefined arsenal of pass rushing moves and occasional discipline lapses on the field.
However, the upside is tremendous with Attaochu, and he appears to have enough pure talent to contribute as a nickel rusher right away. He has a naturally ability to bend around the edge and get after the quarterback that can't be taught, and his explosive first step will give NFL tackles problems. He'll also only get better as he adds strength and improves his technique, both of which are very conceivable developments.
Attaochu is expected to go in the middle/late portions of the second round, but he has the upside of a higher pick. If the Patriots choose to address another need with their first pick, he could be a tremendous value of a consolation prize.
Potential reach: Kareem Martin, UNC
Martin possesses intriguing potential thanks to his eye-popping length. He's 6'6", 272 and has 35" arms, which he uses well to punch and extend, holding off opposing tackles while he reads where the play is going. After putting up unspectacular numbers his first three seasons, Martin exploded for 11.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and 21.5 tackles for a loss as senior, pushing him into second round consideration.
He has the talent to develop into a nice player, but the second round would be too high in my estimation for a player who isn't a great fit for their needs. The Patriots need another guy who can get after the passer, and that isn't the strength of Martin's game. He was able to rack up the sacks in his final year against collegiate competition, but he lacks the explosive first step or natural bend around the edge of the league's best pass rushers.
Like most college prospects, he could improve with some fine tuning of his technique, particularly with his pass rushing moves, but his raw abilities are better suited as an edge setting left DE, rather than as a high-impact pass rusher. He could turn into a nice player, but he's not the best fit for what the Pats need as this juncture.
Potential sleeper: Morgan Breslin, USC
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| Breslin has less-than-ideal measurables, but he was a sack machine in college |
His play on tape indicates that he could be a steal in that range. Breslin exploded onto the scene as JUCO transfer in 2012, posting 13 sacks, 62 tackles (19.5 for a loss) and four batted passes for the Trojans. Much like Baltimore's Elvis Dumervil, Breslin uses his lack of size to his advantage, playing with excellent balance and leverage against bigger offensive tackles. He's quick off the ball and attacks offensive linemen with his relentless motor, showing a naturally ability to bend around the edge and several developing pass rushing moves.
After putting up those eye-popping numbers as a junior playing end in a 4-3, Breslin was moved to outside linebacker when the Trojans switched to a 3-4. Breslin was productive in the few games he was healthy, getting 4.5 sacks and 8 tackles for a loss in the five games he did play, but he missed major time with ankle, hip and hernia injuries, ultimately undergoing surgery to repair the later two issues.
The lack of size makes Breslin too much of a risk to take in the early rounds, but he certainly has enough promise to become a late round find. He wouldn't be the first DE to find unconventional success despite his size, and his production on the field is hard to argue with. He also possesses great intangibles, and was beloved at USC as a tireless worker who lives and breathes football. Take it from USC's interim coach Ed Orgeron: "In my 27 years of coaching, Morgan is absolutely one of my favorite players I've ever coached. An outstanding young man, great team guy, just loves football." That sounds right up Bill Belichick's alley, and the excellent value he'll present in the later rounds will help as well.
High risk, high reward: Dee Ford, Auburn
Much like Ealy, Ford is an explosive speed rusher with an intriguing combination of explosive athleticism and length. His first step is exceptional, and the energy hebrings to a defense is palpable. He was considered a leader by example at Auburn, with his work ethic on and off the field setting the standard for the SEC champs. He was also very productive on the field, earning All SEC honors after racking up 10.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and 14.5 tackles for a loss in 11 starts.
Ford emerged as a potential early round pick with his senior season, but it was his performance at the Senior Bowl that caused his stock to really rise into the first round range. Ford was dominant all week in practice, and earned MVP honors in the game by racking up two sacks (matching his total from the National Championship game) and a batted down pass in the first half.
As a result, Ford seems to have surpassed Ealy in most projections. I'd be surprised if he lasts to the Patriots pick at 29, as the Eagles (22) and Saints (27) standing out as potential destinations, although anyone could easily fall in a draft this deep.
The "high reward" potential here is obvious, but I consider Ford a "high risk" thanks to his alarming injury history. His 2011 season was cut short after just three games when he underwent microdisectemy surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back. He followed this up with some promising play in 2012, but an abdominal injury cost him a game against Ole Miss and limited his effectiveness in three others. An MCL injury in fall camp last year cost him the first two games of the season and a start against Mississippi State. Finally, unknown problems stemming from his back surgery reared their ugly head at the combine, where he was not medically cleared to work out (he's since worked out and performed well at his Pro Day, and went through a private workout with the Patriots this month).
Ford certainly has the talent to bring a jolt to the Patriots pass rush, and you'd have to think someone with his upside would get consideration if he's there at 29. However, he has yet to prove he can make through a college season healthy, yet alone a longer NFL season going against bigger, stronger players. Would the Pats be comfortable rolling the dice there, as they have in the past with guys like Rob Gronkowski, or would those medical issues push them towards a safer pick at another position?
