Ready for fantasy? A fantasy outlook for Patriots players
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Tom Brady, QB: Last year was tough for #12, Tom usually was a fantasy stud but due to many departures and injuries Brady put out a less than stellar performance. He may have won 12 regular season games, but he wasn’t winning fantasy owners many games. There was a silver lining, with Gronk on the field Brady is a completely different quarterback.
According to ESPN:
After appearing in 16 games in each of his first 2 seasons, Gronkowski has missed 14 games with injuries over the last 2 years. Over that span, Brady has a Total QBR of 78 with 33 touchdowns and 8 interceptions when Gronkowski is on the field and a Total QBR of 60 with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions when he is off the field. He’s missed even more in the red zone, where Brady has a Total QBR of 94 over the last 2 years with Gronkowski in the game and a Total QBR of 67 with him on the sideline.
In short, Brady’s fantasy value is handcuffed to Gronkowski’s health. With Gronk, Brady could yet again be an elite QB. Without him his fantasy fate becomes more fuzzy. There are other reasons you should be high on Brady this year. Those rookie wide receivers have had another year to learn the system, Amendola is currently healthy, Lafell gives him another option with potential, and there is the recent addition of Tim Wright who may play the joker position. Brady’s current ADP on FFToolbox is 60 and on FantasyPros it is 53. I think in deeper leagues Brady is clearly a QB1 and could be the fantasy steal of the year. I recommend stocking up on running backs early and drafting #12 in the mid-rounds.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB: We all loved seeing the Eastern Illinois alum light it up in the preseason but he should only be considered in dynasty leagues. If anything happens to Brady (and God help us all if that happens) Garoppolo’s fantasy stock will skyrocket, otherwise he shouldn’t be on your radar.
Stevan Ridley, RB:: The talented Mr. Ridley has put up solid numbers in the past but last season he was benched once again for fumbling issues and lost the starting job to Blount. Ridley ended the season with only 773 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Blount may be gone but Ridley may not even stay on the team this season. His ADP on FFToolBox is 98 and on Fantasy Pros he is ranked #75 overall. I recommend drafting Ridley as a bench player. Yes, Ridley has a lot of question marks but he is still capable of putting up +1,000 rushing yards and I believe that upside is worth a late round pick.
Shane Vereen, RB: Many people are predicting that Vereen will be a PPR machine this year and I concur. According to Daniel Kalles at FFToolbox:
Despite only playing in eight games last season, he played almost as many snaps as Stevan Ridley. Vereen's value jumps up big time in PPR leagues as he caught 47 passes in eight contests (good enough for just under six receptions per game). The Patriots have a history of going with the hot hand at RB, but the offense moved much better when Vereen was healthy; as long as he stays healthy, the former Cal running back should be a Top 20 running back.In PPR formats Verren is a fourth or maybe even a late third round selection, and in standard leagues he is a mid round selection for your FLEX.
James White, RB: Much like Garapolo this rookie should only be considered in dynasty formats. If Ridley ends up being traded or cut you should grab White for your bench.
Julian Edelman, WR: Edelman became a fantasy stud last year with 105 receptions and over 1,000 yards. At FFToolBox his ADP is 57 and is ranked 76th overall on FantasyPros. Edelman may have had a great 2013 season but I feel that his stats are going to drop this year. The receiving group for the Pats was depleted due to departures and injuries but that is not longer the case. The most important factor in Edelman’s fantasy production will have an inverse correlation to Gronkowski’s health. When Gronk was not on the field Edelman was averaging 7.7 catches per game and when Gronk was starting Edelman only had 5 receptions per game in 2013. My prediction is that Gronkowski will be healthy this year and Edelman won’t see over 150 targets again. Edelman should be considered a WR3 in PPR formats or a FLEX option in standard leagues. Try to draft him as your last starter but if something happens to Gronk he could be a top tier fantasy receiver in PPR.
Danny Amendola, WR: In most formats Amendola is almost undraftable. In 2013 he had a paltry 623 yards receiving and only two touchdowns. There is nothing to suggest him and Brady have had better chemistry or that he won’t get himself injured yet again. FFToolBox has his ADP at 128 and FantasyPros has him ranked 145th overall. If you are in a 10 or 12 team league he should be considered a bench player to take in a late round and he is undraftable in eight team leagues.
Brandon LaFell, WR: LaFell is an interesting prospect but still has a lot to prove. After an underwhelming career in Carolina the Pats grabbed him free agency and he could develop into a reliable target even though last year he led his team in dropped passes with 8 missed opportunities to haul in the ball. Fantasy Pros has him ranked 213th overall and his ADP at FFToolBox is 178. Lafell should only be drafted as your second to last player, just ahead of your kicker.
Rob Gronkowski, TE: Gronk is clearly a top tier tight end and if there was a guarantee that he play all 16 games he would be considered a first round pick. Unfortunately Gronk has only played 18 games in the past two seasons. FFToolbox has his ADP at 28 and FantasyPros has him ranked 32nd overall. If you are willing to gamble on his health you should be taking him in the third round and is a steal in the fourth round or later. Personally, there is a huge point chasm between Gronk, Graham and the rest of the tight ends in the league so go ahead and take a gamble on him with your third round pick.
Tim Wright, TE: The Patriots gave away one of their best offensive lineman for this former Rutgers receiver turned tight end. All of the fantasy analysis up to yesterday is pretty useless now considering Wright’s new situation and we haven’t even seen him play in a Patriots uniform. My gut feeling is to take a flyer on Wright in one of the later rounds. Should Gronk be injured (which unfortunately is a real possibility) you should definitely grab Wright on the waiver wire. Something to keep in consideration is that Wright’s rookie stats are eerily similar to Aaron Hernandez’s. Wright had 54 catches, 571 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns his rookie year and Hernandez had 45 receptions, 563 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns his first year in the league. You should also seriously consider him in dynasty leagues.
Patriots Defense: Before Wilfork, Kelly, and Mayo went down with injuries last year the defense seemed dominant giving up only 14 points a game in the first four games. The Pats have replaced Talib with Revis and Browner and should Easley fully heal from his ACL tear he could be a factor on the defensive line later this season. Defenses can be difficult to draft because there could be a run on them early or people could wait until the second to last round to grab one. My suggestion is to wait until someone drafts a defense and grab the Patriots defense right after. Fantasy Pros has them ranked as the 7th best defense but they should produce turnovers with a stacked secondary and playing in a division with young quarterbacks certainly doesn’t hurt.
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