Predicting Patriots vs Jets Week 7 - PatriotsLife roundtable
It's pretty obvious that when you poll a couple Patriots bloggers, they are probably going to pick their team to win. So, instead we look at where we do differ- the final score.
Here's a roundup of some of our writers predictions for the team's first Thursday night game - New York Jets vs New England.
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Patriots by 3
This will be a tough game, as most games against the Jets are.
The Patriots have clearly woken up against some good teams in the past few weeks, and the Jets are 1-5. On the surface, this might seem like a blowout in the making.
It won't be.
As inept as the Jets are on offense (as per usual) they have one of the strongest defensive lines in the league. That is a huge problem for a team that could be missing two of their starting offensive linemen - Bryan Stork and Dan Connolly.
The Pats also have had just a few days to prepare for the major losses of Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo from the Buffalo game. That plays right into the Jets hands with rookie tight end Jace Amaro stepping up in the last few games, and the Pats struggling in coverage against tight ends this year. No Ridley against one of the league's top run defenses hurts also.
I still think the Patriots pull out the win against an inferior team at home, but it will be close.
20-17
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Patriots by 4
Lets be clear here: the talent disparity between the Jets and Patriots would normally dictate a much higher margin of victory. However, just as it was back in Week 2 last year, weather could be the equalizer. Heavy rain and wind are expected to batter Gillette Stadium tonight, and the conditions could make passing the ball very difficult.
That would certainly play into the Jets favor. This Jets team has a porous secondary and an abysmal passing offense, but they are a decent running team and boast one of the league's top run defenses. Playing in a slugfest fits their strengths, and would provide the Pats with a tough test immediately following the loss of top running back Stevan Ridley.
With that said, it's hard to imagine Brady and the Pats following up their recent run of strong play with a loss to the 1-5 Jets, especially at home. Furthermore, it's hard to imagine the turnover prone Jets offense putting much of a scare into a talented, opportunistic Pats defense. It certainly won't be easy, and Pats fans will be feeling anxiety until the game clock reads "0:00", but look for Brady and co to grind out just enough plays to escape with a win.
Patriots 17 Jets 13
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Patriots by 10
Jets vs. Patriots. Pats fans live for these matchups. In one corner, we have a 1-5 Jets team that is looking to make a statement against a divisional foe. In the other corner, we have a 4-2 Pats team that is looking to extend their winning streak and distance themselves in the AFC East. We all know the history and the disgust these two teams have for each other. Putting the records aside, I think this has the makings of being another intense game in the beginning.
Here are my quick thoughts about tonight's game:
- Patriots will come out slow in the first half
- Jets defense will apply the pressure like they did against Denver
- Geno Smith will turn the ball over twice in the first half leading to points
- Brady will end up with over 300 yards passing and 3 TD's
- Tim Wright, LaFell, and Gronk will each have a TD
- Brandon Bolden will have more yards than Shane Vereen
- Michael Vick will end up replacing a frustrated Geno Smith before the game is through
- Chris Ivory will have close to 100 yards rushing
- Chandler Jones & Deontae Skinner will each have a sack
- Rex Ryan will cry on the sideline and wish he was playing with someone's feet
Patriots 30 - Jets 20
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Paul Murphy (@_prmurphy)
New England by 6
I heard WCVB-TV meteorologist Harvey Leonard say the rain will be heaviest before the game. I don't foresee any restrictions on New England offense.
Patriots will run Brandon Bolden 15 times for 50 yards. Most of the 250 passing yards will be screens or quick slants . Big game for Julian Edelman with 10 catches.
Darrelle Revis will not play on offense to try and rub it in Jet's face.
4 field goals for Stephen Gotkowski in the win.
Late score by Jets makes it appear game was close.
New England 26 New York 20
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Patriots by 14
I don't see any way the Patriots will lose this game, but that doesn't mean it will always be easy, even against the 1-5 Jets. The Patriots are dealing with the losses of Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo for the year, and they'll show signs off missing both of them. Does that mean they lose? No, and here's why - Tom Brady now feels comfortable with his weapons and the Patriots are coming off 2 wins in which the offense put up 43 and 37 points respectively and I think the Patriots have enough on offense without Ridley.
On defense, I see them coming up big against Geno Smith and the Jets offense. Not that Geno Smith will make it difficult - he has 6 interceptions and 5 fumbles by himself. I think Geno finds out what it's like to play against Revis Island, and he won't like it - Revis will get a pick (maybe 2 or 3) and really make the Jets miss him.
Patriots 28-14
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Pats by 14
A short week in the NFL throws off everyone from the coaching staff to the players and even the fans. So lets just jump straight to it.
What I said in my season preview.
“If Geno Smith proves to take a step forward during the first six weeks of the season, I’m going to have a far different opinion of this game when we get to week 7, but right now? I’m confident the Pats win handily as the only player on the offense that scares me is Eric Decker. Even if their stout front seven reduces the Pats run game to quick screens to Shane Vereen and Tim Wright. Pats win 24-13.”
Well Geno Smith has taken zero steps forward and about 7 back. The defense is still pretty good up front, but are there actually defensive backs on the field? Sometimes it doesn’t look like it. Quick question, what’s more likely to batter a Tom Brady pass down tonight, the Jets DBs or the weather? Answer, the weather.
Pats need to focus, it being a short week, and continue to assert their offensive ability while showing their ability to make up for injured players. Replacing Jerod Mayo and Steven Ridley is not going to be easy, but it shouldn’t matter this week against the woebegone Jets. The only thing the keeps the score down is the weather.
Pats win 21-7
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Patriots by 3
Yes, the Patriots are a better team but certain factors are going to allow the Jets to remain competitive. The first factor is the rain. They are expecting heavy rain in Foxborough tonight and that means less passing and more running. That factor favors the Jets defense due to a stout front 4 that has been good against the run. The Patriots lost their starting running back Stevan Ridley for the year and they are going to miss him tonight. I don't trust Bolden, Vereen is not an in between the tackles kind of running back, and James White has done nothing to inspire confidence.
It will be close I think because it is a home game and the emergence of Tim Wright complimenting Rob Gronkowski in the passing game the Patriots will play action and get the ball to their tight ends. Look for Wright to have a big game with Ivory rushing more yards than any other running back tonight. The only reason this game may get out of control is if Geno continues to struggle and turn the ball over.
Patriots 17 Jets 14
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Patriots by 13
I have a hard time deciding which way this game will go. While I feel the Patriots outclass the Jets by a lot, I still feel like somehow Rex might get his team up for the occasion and somehow pull this off.
But no matter how much I try and make the Jets a threat I just can't. As long as the O-line can hold up against their front seven I think there is no way the Jets upset the Patriots. Even if the offense struggles, the defense should be able to bait the Jets into making mistakes and capitalize on them. With Revis having a shot to embarrass his old team he'll play his best game ever. And if he gets his hands on a ball it'll take a miracle or some good tackling by Geno to keep him out of the end zone.
The only thing that keeps this thing from a rout is the expectations of heavy rain.
Patriots 23 - Jets 10
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Patriots by 14.
The Jets put up a surprisingly valiant effort against "America's Team," (the Broncos) last week and I would expect the same kind of fight tonight even though they're on a short week.
However, the Patriots offense has come to life the past few weeks and I think it will be too much for New York to handle even without Stevan Ridley. I see it being close early, much like the Buffalo game was, but I think the Pats pull away in the second half.
Patriots 27, Jets 13.
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Andrew Ludwig (@aludwig25)
Patriots by 3
The Patriots will continue on their winning ways tonight against the Jets, but it won't come easy as it never seems to come easy in the AFC East. The Patriots were able to take control of Buffalo last week, but an AFC East victory never comes without a price as they lost Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo for the season. These two losses will be tough to overcome on a short week of preparation. The weather is going to cause both teams to run the ball tonight, and that will play right into the Jets hands as they have a tough defensive front and three capable runnings backs.
But look for Geno to cough up the ball just when his team needs him to make a play the most. This will be an old fashioned defensive battle and could come down to a last second field goal. I expect Brady to make plays when needed, and the emergence of Brandon Lafell to continue this week. But it will a grinder of a win for the Patriots tonight.
Patriots 20 Jets 17
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Patriots by 21
Not much to say about this one. The Jets are in shambles, and the Patriots are rolling. It’s going to pour tonight, which will make an inept Jets offense even worse, so don’t expect the Jets to score much against this Patriots defense. The rain will make things tough for the Patriots offense. Longer throws will be difficult, so expect to see a lot of running and short-intermediate throws. All touchdowns will come in the red zone.
Patriots 24-Jets 3
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Patriots by 10.
The Patriots will have some hiccups on offense due to the weather, missing Stork and Connolly, and the lack of Stevan Ridley in the run game. Given their ability to game prep better than any other team, I see the Patriots vastly out-game planning the Jets, which should consist of play-action to take advantage of poor field conditions and a weak secondary.
On defense, the Patriots should continue to dominate given the poor play of Geno Smith. I expect at least two turnovers, at the minimum. Even without Mayo, the return of Brandon Browner should provide some veteran leadership on defense, along with a physical presence on the outside. Hopefully Hightower and Collins are able to play, along with Dominique Easley and Chandler Jones, to provide some pressure with the front seven.
To put it simply, the Jets are not a good team, but they will play their best game year after year against the Patriots, which is why this game, will yet again, be closer than anticipated,
Patriots 24 - Jets 14
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Patriots by 1
When it comes to the Jets, there's no such thing as a trap game, but this is incredibly close to one. New York's identity is fading faster than Rexy's waistline, they've got 2 wrong answers at quarterback, the Patriots have found themselves, but I'm not sold on tonight. The weather could equalize, the adjustment to life without Mayo and Ridley could take some time, and the Jets are strong on the line which could give Brady fits.
This isn't a 1 point on a last second field goal, this is classic Patriots. They are up 1 late in the 3rd and put together a touchdown drive to be up 8, give up a touchdown with 5ish minutes left, and then the Jets kick it deep and allow the Patriots to run out the clock. Come to think of it, that's also typical Jets. An extra prediction would be that Rex ironically loses his job after kissing the rings one last time in Foxboro.
Patriots 17 Jets 16
