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It was raining worse in the 2nd half. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
Earlier today, I wrote an article highlighting the insanity that is Deflate Gate, but then I wanted to know more. I've been looking into this situation for the last 48 hours, and believe that I can confidently say that the deflated balls, in no way, helped the Patriots during Sunday's AFC Championship.

That said, I watched the game again, and again, now knowing the scenario that these balls were in play in the first half of the game and not the second half, due to them being removed at halftime.

I tracked Brady's attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, bad throws, and drops. The numbers pait a clear picture.

In the first half, Brady completed 11 of 21 passes for 95 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Four of those incompletions were categorized as drops, but three passes, thrown before and into the end zone near the end of the 2nd quarter,  could have also been categorized as drops. Another couple of those incompletions would be considered inaccurate throws by Brady that were completely uncatchable.

Here are the details of the drops:

1st Quarter 12:45: Brady throws to the deep middle where Edelman is unable to corral the ball in, reaching his arm out. Ball glances off his hands.

1st Quarter 4:19: Brady throws to LaFell on a bubble screen. LaFell watches it in, but drops the ball as he turned upfield.

1st Quarter 2:51: Brady throws to Edelman across the middle. Edelman reaches out with both hands, but the ball goes right through his gloves. Should have been a routine, easy catch.

2nd Quarter 4:15: Brady throws to Amendola across the middle. Amendola has the ball go right through his hands. Another that your average middle school WR could catch.

Could Have Been Drops/Bad Throws:

2nd Quarter 1:34: Brady throws to Edelman short left. Ball is slightly behind Edelman, who has the ball deflect off his hands. (Brady was hit late on a roughing the passer penalty.)

2nd Quarter :58: Brady throws to Gronk in the back right corner of the end zone. Brady slightly overthrows him, but as he was coming down Gronk lost control of the ball.

2nd Quarter :23: Brady throws to Amendola in the right flat. Could have been called defensive pass interference, but Brady overthrows Amendola.

2nd Quarter :19: Brady throws to Gronk short left. Another close play, but Gronk can't corral a ball that hits him straight in the hands on a slant route.

2nd Quarter :16: Brady throws to Vereen in the left flat. Brady overthrows Vereen on an arrow route.

Tom Brady didn't throw another incompletion until the start of the 4th quarter. It was a drop by Gronkowski. His only other incompletion in the second half was a deep throw to LaFell that Brady slightly underthrew on a go route.

To recap: Brady went 11 for 21 (52% completion percentage) for 95 yards, one INT, and one TD in the 1st half.

In the 2nd half, Brady went 12 for 14 (85.7% completion percentage) for 131 yards and two TDs.

This is from AccuWeather.com about the game and the weather playing an effect:

Additionally, showers hit Gillette Stadium and eventually a steadier rain drenched players and fans into the second half of the game. While temperatures for an outdoor venue in mid-January were not severe, a drop in indoor to outdoor temperatures can alter the pressure. When inflated inside warm, climate-controlled conditions, the ball pressure can be impacted by the transition to lower outdoor temperatures and brisk, rainy conditions.

This AccuWeather.com article was written the day before:

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek, "Rain is possible during all or most of the AFC Championship game Sunday evening with the heaviest rain likely to occur during the fourth quarter."

So not only do the actual meteorologists suggest that the balls could have been affected by the temperature causing the PSI difference, but also, the weather in the first half was not nearly as bad as the second half. So for all of this talk that the deflated balls were easier to catch in the rain people need to realize it was raining worse in the second half of the game than the first half, when the deflated balls were being used.

Here are tweets from those at the game in regards to the weather. The thing to notice is the time of the tweets in regards to the game:











This isn't an article to say the Patriots did or did not intentionally deflate the footballs. That would make this article 3x longer than it is. This article is to say that the deflated balls had no effect or an adverse effect on how the Patriots performed on the field, and did not provide any statistical advantage.

I rest my case.

Follow me on Twitter - @PatriotsInform

For more of my articles, click here.

Adam Bogdan 1/21/2015 06:03:00 PM Edit
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