John's Well Educated Guesses: Patriots at Bills

Awesome Jelly
You know when you find 20 bucks in the pocket of a pair of jeans that you haven't worn in a while and you think to yourself, "today is gonna be a good day." That's exactly how I feel when I look at the schedule and see the Bills. Football is stressful man. It's not easy to win in the NFL no matter who is playing. And when you lose, it's a week of misery. I can't watch SportsCenter (ESPN Lies), I can't watch Sunday Night Football because they do the highlights from the week at half time, and I can't read anything online. Don't even ask me about 98.5. When the Bs lose or when the Cs play like shit, I can put my head down and power through 24/48 hours until the next game when all will be right in the world again. But the way football works, the Pats losses really make it hurt. That two game skid this year damn near killed me.

But the Bills, well the Bills are the tonic that cures all. The "tussin" of the NFL schedule. I'll take them any time I can, but on a Monday Night really is a treat. I am a disaster over the weekends. My body becomes a disgusting compost pile of beer, wings, subs, nachos, vodka, and bacon. I'm shocked I wake up most Monday mornings. Eventually my brain will issue the self destruct command and I will have no one to blame but me. And I'm fine with that! Wouldn't have it any other way. But to combat that behavior, I do my best to eat healthy(er) during the week, and only drink up until but not reaching blackout on school nights. The exceptions are when our boys play on MNF. Weekend JO gets extended one more glorious night of food porn, Pats porn, then porn porn.

Is it possible we are overlooking the Bills? Our Bill already made a point this week to make sure the guys don't do just that, but it's human nature right? The Bills STINK and we own them. Tom Brady legit might be the majority shareholder in that franchise. Tommy is 28-3 against the Bills. That is not a typo. One loss shouldn't even count because we weren't trying and he came out at half time. His career passer rating vs Buffalo is 101.1. He's thrown 68 tuddies against them in those 31 games. That includes 38 tuddies in 15 games AT Buffalo, which puts him SECOND on the list of all Bills QBs since Brady came into the league. The only person ahead of him is FitzMagic, who has 39, and will be easily passed on Monday. That is a mind bottling stat. Bills QBs play 8 games a year at home. Tommy plays there once! Yes he's been in the league 17 season, but that means he's played the equivalent of one season there. ONE!!!!! And he's about to have more tuddies there than any Bills QB.

The 2018 Bills are really bad too. Like you can't even over exaggerate how bad. Brock Osweiler has 6 passing tuddies this year on 80 attempts. The Bills have 3 passing tuddies in 201 attempts. THREE. Pattie Homie has thrown 3 tuddies in a single half 6 times this year. Baaahahaha. The Bills are averaging 234 yards per game. The league average is 350. The Bills average 11.6 points per game. The league average is 24.1. The Bills average 3.92 yards per play. The league average is 5.67. The have thrown the most picks with 12. They have given up the 29th most sacks with 26. They convert third downs at 27% which is good for 31st in the league. And they get 3.85 yards per carry, by far their best category, at 28th in the league. OH EM GEE.

Considering they are going to start the ghost of Derek Anderson at quarterback, and LeSean McCoy is most likely out (he's practicing but still in concussion protocol), I just have no idea how this team expects to score points against us. Or anyone. The Pats are coming off four straight weeks of 38+ points, and they did that against a pretty good defense last week without Gronk or their bright shining star running back. Jules is getting back into shape more each week. Flash is getting incorporated more each week. And while we will certainly be without the services of Sony Michele for the foreseeable future, Gronk was a limited participant in practice and I know he loves to play in his home town. He'll suit up, you can take that to the bank, which is not ideal news for Bills Mafia. After a bit of a mess last Sunday, this is a great opportunity for a tune up game to get things right.

Prediction: The defense has a big bounce back effort here. No more soft zone bullshit with tight ends wiping their ass with our coverage. No more quarterbacks running free like wild horses with the wind in their hair. The demands: Under 250 yards of total offense and under 14 points. And for a bonus point: we will have at least one pick. That was going to be my prediction if I hadn't used it last week.

Prediction: Gronk plays as I said, and he will have a big night. I've been burned on this prediction before. He's been quiet by his standards this year. At least from a fantasy stand point. But not so much for his last three trips to Buffalo. From 2015 on hes gone 7 for 113 and a tuddy, 5 for 109 an d a tuddy, and 9 for 147. Over 80 yards a tuddy for me to hit.

Prediction: This one shouldn't be crazy but unfortunately it is. NO TURNOVERS. We haven't done this once all season, which is an embarrassment. But the Bills butter our bread, and on Monday night, we take care of our luggage.

Prediction: I've been hesitant to predict blowouts any more. I've said in this space it sucks when I tell you guys its going to be a field trip at school, and instead it rains and the beach day gets canceled and you're stuck doing multiplication tables. But this week, I'm willing to pack my swim suit. We might lose the 38 streak, but only cause Brady will probably come out of this one. Pats 34 Bills 13